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I understand, and I want to apologize if I come off as sounding really hateful and harsh.
I was driven mad by the rush of investors & californians that made the local real estate too expensive for locals.
It makes me sick to see a 3000 sqft. home plopped on a lot that is smaller than my current patio cover for 750K surrounded by block walls with 2 stories peering over.
For me to upgrade out of my current home, I would have to pay MORE to get LESS of a home, and on top of that be FURTHER into nowhere land, and it doesn't make sense. And for that reason, it makes me, and many other locals consider places that are better and LESS expensive to boot.
So thats my biggest gripe... outside of that, the city is what you make it, but I believe you should love the desert if you are here, and not create a fake setting that tricks you into believing that you are somewhere else... the environment and water supply can only support that for so long.
I think we are talking too fast. . Fair enough, I see where you are coming from and agree with you. I have been moving further and further out to avoid the onslaught of humanity, but have about had it. Next time I'm outta here completely. I will miss it. I have had a really nice life here.
Unless they are moving to Texas or Youngstown OH or worse (is anywhere worse than Texas?) or fight off the bugs and live among the religious zealots in the south, they need the money for the next home. Phoenix is still cheaper than just about anywhere in the west. You can't buy a home in Chicago for what you get for yours here and NY and the northeast are far more expensive. California is too. We have long looked at the Branson area and even that is gone sky high in the last 12 months and is continuing to rise. So what do they do? Curious, though, why do you care? Are you looking to buy and waiting for a price drop?
I'm will not be looking to buy here... when the time comes, I will be a *realistic* home seller or just rent mine out for 10 years til it gets normal here again.
As far as Branson, MO goes... isn't that just as touristy or more than the SD gaslamp district you were scoffing about in an earlier post? Baby boomers are out in full force right now and its no surprise that a retirement destination like that is going crazy. They probably realized it was nicer and cheaper than Phx and now Maricopa County is losing retirement people to that place... so while we depreciated for a year, they appreciated.
I will benefit from the crazy appreciation, even being *realistic*! But it still bothers me because the longer the mass population of Phx holds on to yesteryears prices, the longer it will remain a mess and the longer it will be before anything stabilizes and returns to normalcy. If you are planning on staying here anyway, you should feel the same way since you don't have to make a quick buck anytime soon anyhow.
There are many places in the country that have gone through similar downturns and the sellers of the region reacted much quicker and actually returned to some form of normalcy. We have been floundering for nearly a year now because of delusional home sellers and it speaks volumes for the greedy mentality of our population.
Movin on refers to my post. I am not selling my house. I have been here for 35 years, raised two families in this area and do not long to go back to the "real thing". This is my real thing. I do long for a time when there were fewer people here and less of all the problems that growth has meant. I wish that everyone who whines and complains about Arizona and yearns for his roots in California, Illinois, Podunk or whatever would just get the ^%ll out so I could have my desert home back like it used to be. Ain't gonna happen. So I probably will have to go live in some humid Southern backwater to avoid them.
Oh yes, it is going to happen. It's just a matter of time before the fragile, hostile ecosystem we live in, which massive, teeming hordes have struggled to tame and overcome for years, will finally cave in. The limited life-sustaining resources here, on which more and more of a burden are being placed by so many people, will one day run out. And then we'll see the consequences of such poor foresight and urban planning: With so much "cheap land" (it's desert, keep in mind, no matter how much grass or how many trees you plant) gobbled up by sprawl that this megalopolis is completely unlivable without a car, air conditioning and imported water, we will most certainly see a mass exodus out of this place.
As a midwestern transplant myself, I found this article in the Detroit Free Press extremely poignant. The so-called "rust belt" may not have sunny, warm winters, but there's one thing it does have which we desert dwellers will be in dire need of very soon: fresh water, and plenty of it. And, it will always be cheaper to heat your home than it is to air-condition it, particularly when you start talking about temps in the 120's, which we'll likely start seeing regularly in the summers around here if current trends continue. Anyway, here's the article:
Whether people here like it or not, most of us living on a middle-class income here will be forced to move away within the next decade, probably back to the midwest, if we want to have any kind of quality of life. By 2020, I predict that only those rich enough to afford the exorbitant living costs and who are independently wealthy (trust me, with rising energy and water costs, the large companies who've been relocating here & attracting employees aren't going to be sticking around, either), or those too poor to leave, will still be left here. In other words- exactly what's already happened in L.A.
Oh yes, it is going to happen. It's just a matter of time before the fragile, hostile ecosystem we live in, which massive, teeming hordes have struggled to tame and overcome for years, will finally cave in. The limited life-sustaining resources here, on which more and more of a burden are being placed by so many people, will one day run out. And then we'll see the consequences of such poor foresight and urban planning: With so much "cheap land" (it's desert, keep in mind, no matter how much grass or how many trees you plant) gobbled up by sprawl that this megalopolis is completely unlivable without a car, air conditioning and imported water, we will most certainly see a mass exodus out of this place.
As a midwestern transplant myself, I found this article in the Detroit Free Press extremely poignant. The so-called "rust belt" may not have sunny, warm winters, but there's one thing it does have which we desert dwellers will be in dire need of very soon: fresh water, and plenty of it. And, it will always be cheaper to heat your home than it is to air-condition it, particularly when you start talking about temps in the 120's, which we'll likely start seeing regularly in the summers around here if current trends continue. Anyway, here's the article:
Whether people here like it or not, most of us living on a middle-class income here will be forced to move away within the next decade, probably back to the midwest, if we want to have any kind of quality of life. By 2020, I predict that only those rich enough to afford the exorbitant living costs and who are independently wealthy (trust me, with rising energy and water costs, the large companies who've been relocating here & attracting employees aren't going to be sticking around, either), or those too poor to leave, will still be left here. In other words- exactly what's already happened in L.A.
I think you have your facts a little skewed.
There is no resource at this time that prevents continued growth virtually forever in the South West. There are various political/social/governmental things that could cause localized problems but overall the place has water, energy and land.
For instance...
The Colorado is the third heaviest flowing River in the US. Over 90% of its flow is used for agriculture. Changing the use of a small fraction of this water provides the water for all possible growth over the next decades.
Air Conditioning is not neccessarily more expensive than heating. That assumes that the heating is done by burning fossil fuel. Limit the burning of such fuel and heat pumping whether to heat or cool becomes the best deal in town. Note that colder climates are at a large disadvantage in such a scenario as heat pumping does not work well in very cold conditions. Well insulated places are also quite economically heated or cooled.
The cities of the SW may eventually strangle themselves with sprawl or such. But then start another.
I would think a reversal of the flow from the north to the south is most unlikely. May be in time we will retire there to get away from all the people in the SW. But that will be because the east and midwest will have half or a third the population they do now.
There is no resource at this time that prevents continued growth virtually forever in the South West. There are various political/social/governmental things that could cause localized problems but overall the place has water, energy and land.
For instance...
The Colorado is the third heaviest flowing River in the US. Over 90% of its flow is used for agriculture. Changing the use of a small fraction of this water provides the water for all possible growth over the next decades.
Air Conditioning is not neccessarily more expensive than heating. That assumes that the heating is done by burning fossil fuel. Limit the burning of such fuel and heat pumping whether to heat or cool becomes the best deal in town. Note that colder climates are at a large disadvantage in such a scenario as heat pumping does not work well in very cold conditions. Well insulated places are also quite economically heated or cooled.
The cities of the SW may eventually strangle themselves with sprawl or such. But then start another.
I would think a reversal of the flow from the north to the south is most unlikely. May be in time we will retire there to get away from all the people in the SW. But that will be because the east and midwest will have half or a third the population they do now.
First of all, I've lived most of my life in Michigan, and I've never known a soul who used heat pumping as a means of heating their home. The majority of people use natural gas, an abundantly plentiful and cheap resource which costs a fraction per unit of energy produced as compared with the electricity required for air conditioning. I don't recall ever paying a gas bill in excess of $60 a month when I lived there, even during the coldest months of the year. And I lived in a much larger home than I currently have in Phoenix. On the contrary, I've seen my electric bills well in excess of $100 from May through October here, when air conditioning is absolutely necessary for survival.
Which brings me to my next point- the human body is much more adept at keeping itself warm than it is at cooling itself off. You can always pile on more blankets, put on more layers of clothing and build a fire if you want to save on energy costs in the midwest during winter. Here, there's not much you can do for 6 months straight besides crank the a/c up higher and pray for October.
As for the water situation, it's pretty well-known that this entire region of the country is in a period of extended, severe drought; the Colorado River is at its lowest level in recorded history, and no less than 6 of the country's largest, fastest-growing communities from Colorado to California are completely dependent on it for their survival. The tributaries in the state of Arizona are rapidly drying up, and no alternative long-term solutions have been proposed to address the issue. There's been an ongoing series about this in the AZ Republic, you should look it up & read it. To think that there's an abundant and inexhaustible amount of water that will sustain this region of the country indefinitely, in the face of such rampant growth, to me is completely delusional. You're the one who might want to check your facts.
And anyway, the question of whether or not people will continue to pour into the region and continue the rapid pace of growth infinitely into the future is more of an economic question, and in history the pattern of economic growth and development follows fairly predictable trends that argue against this. Again, read the link I posted. Long before the resources here in the desert in fact dry up completely, they'll get much more expensive. The government will have to raise taxes to afford to maintain the environment, water supply, sewage, and such. And what will most likely happen is that, much like California, taxes and cost of living to support such numbers of people in a barren climate will become prohibitive for the average middle-class American and business owner alike. When that happens, companies & jobs will begin to relocate, and loads of people will follow them out of here. It's a trend that's happened many times before, and it's gonna happen again.
First of all, I've lived most of my life in Michigan, and I've never known a soul who used heat pumping as a means of heating their home. The majority of people use natural gas, an abundantly plentiful and cheap resource which costs a fraction per unit of energy produced as compared with the electricity required for air conditioning. I don't recall ever paying a gas bill in excess of $60 a month when I lived there, even during the coldest months of the year. And I lived in a much larger home than I currently have in Phoenix. On the contrary, I've seen my electric bills well in excess of $100 from May through October here, when air conditioning is absolutely necessary for survival.
Which brings me to my next point- the human body is much more adept at keeping itself warm than it is at cooling itself off. You can always pile on more blankets, put on more layers of clothing and build a fire if you want to save on energy costs in the midwest during winter. Here, there's not much you can do for 6 months straight besides crank the a/c up higher and pray for October.
As for the water situation, it's pretty well-known that this entire region of the country is in a period of extended, severe drought; the Colorado River is at its lowest level in recorded history, and no less than 6 of the country's largest, fastest-growing communities from Colorado to California are completely dependent on it for their survival. The tributaries in the state of Arizona are rapidly drying up, and no alternative long-term solutions have been proposed to address the issue. There's been an ongoing series about this in the AZ Republic, you should look it up & read it. To think that there's an abundant and inexhaustible amount of water that will sustain this region of the country indefinitely, in the face of such rampant growth, to me is completely delusional. You're the one who might want to check your facts.
And anyway, the question of whether or not people will continue to pour into the region and continue the rapid pace of growth infinitely into the future is more of an economic question, and in history the pattern of economic growth and development follows fairly predictable trends that argue against this. Again, read the link I posted. Long before the resources here in the desert in fact dry up completely, they'll get much more expensive. The government will have to raise taxes to afford to maintain the environment, water supply, sewage, and such. And what will most likely happen is that, much like California, taxes and cost of living to support such numbers of people in a barren climate will become prohibitive for the average middle-class American and business owner alike. When that happens, companies & jobs will begin to relocate, and loads of people will follow them out of here. It's a trend that's happened many times before, and it's gonna happen again.
Your heating costs numbers may be out of date. I checked some energy dept figures that estimate the average cost of heating (in US so it would vary by region) of $900 for natural gas, $1600 for oil, and $ 1250 for propane. I have an all-electric house about 3K sf. My cooling costs this past year were about $750 calculated by taking figuring what the costs from May-October less the cost from Nov-April. So, in my case at least cooling is less expensive than the average person pays for heating. I don't know that it will stay this way. Right now electricity is a relative bargain as only a fraction of the increased fuel costs have been passed through. Our utility, like most in the country is regulated and, of course, is requesting significant increases.
As for your comments on water. I have worked most of my career in water resources engineering and development. While water supplies in AZ need to be (and are being) carefully managed, the situation is not as dire as your post would suggest it is. Other states, particularly NV and CA have immediate and significant issues that could ultimately limit the growth potential. You may well have a point that costs will rise, but they will everywhere. There is considerable speculation beginning in water resources with names like Warren Buffett making huge investments in water utilities and land having water rights. I think that eventually water will trade on the NYMEX or something and we will ALL pay dearly for it no matter where we live as it becomes a traded commodity. Like Owens Valley/LA, those areas that can afford to pay will get water.
BTW: Air conditioning is not necessary for survival. This region has been populated for millenia. A/C was not even common in homes here until the 70s (had evap coolers or sleeping porches before that). I think that heat(fire) might be necessary for survival. Winter conditions like snow drifts and bitter cold temps would seem harder to tolerate than spending the afternoon under a mesquite tree in 115 degree heat.
Between 1975 and 1980 it was not possible to hook up to the natural gas systems in many parts of the midwest including upstate NY. In general in that part of the world the new homes went to heat pumps. My 3,000 SF home built in Rochester in 1976 was heat pumped. Worked quite will except in January and February when the bills doubled. So you are incorrect. There are heat pumps in the upper midwest. I am sure there are some in Michigan for the same reasons.
In the event of limitations driven by supply/demand or environmental concerns heat pumps may again dominate. In my present home I sure wish I could get gas...not for heating the home but the swimming pool.
You really misunderstand the nature of the flow in the Colorado. The river is over 90% cheap water for agriculture. The simple act of making the wanter salable by its agricultural users would solve all the shortages in Nevada and CA instantly. This is water that is delivered to farmers for $10 and $20 an acre foot. It would be worth an order of magnitude more in a free market.
Michigan and much of the upper midwest is simply imploding and there is little liklihood that it will stop anytime soon. The strategies to stop the decline are improbable. Train more and educate better....so the recipients can move to good jobs in the sun belt?
Your paper is driven not by a reversal of fortune in Michigan but by a collapse in the west and south. Don't hold your breath. It simply is not going to happen in the next years. Maybe in 50...but we will likely all be dead by then.
Follow it up and it says the brain trust is strategizing what to do to turn it around. It also says they have no idea what will actually work. Note though that they are not counting on a collapse in the SW and South.
Between 1975 and 1980 it was not possible to hook up to the natural gas systems in many parts of the midwest including upstate NY. In general in that part of the world the new homes went to heat pumps. My 3,000 SF home built in Rochester in 1976 was heat pumped. Worked quite will except in January and February when the bills doubled. So you are incorrect. There are heat pumps in the upper midwest. I am sure there are some in Michigan for the same reasons.
Michigan and much of the upper midwest is simply imploding and there is little liklihood that it will stop anytime soon. The strategies to stop the decline are improbable. Train more and educate better....so the recipients can move to good jobs in the sun belt?
You may be correct about heat pumps in upstate NY; however, I can’t recall anyone in southeastern lower MI using them. More rural areas might have, and perhaps I’m not old enough to remember, but natural gas was cheap and readily available to anyone living in the metropolitan Detroit area as I did in the late ‘70’s and ‘80’s. Old-fashioned convection heating with natural gas was the norm, and it was pretty cheap as compared with the costs of electricity, both then and now. I graduated with a B.S. in engineering myself, and trust me, I also understand the dynamics of heat transfer and energy efficiency.
Your comment on the lack of necessity of air conditioning here is outdated. A century ago, people lived here without it, that’s true; however, it’s been well documented that the average temperatures have risen steadily here since then, particularly overnight temperatures in the summer. It would be extremely uncomfortable, not to mention downright dangerous, to try living without it in Phoenix these days. Scores of homeless people die here in the summer each year. Keep in mind that statistically, heat-related exposure kills more people in this country annually than all other weather-related phenomena combined. And then ask yourself whether or not you still think air conditioning isn’t necessary for survival in this climate.
Energy costs have risen across the board, and it all has to do with supply and demand, which is really the point here. If a necessary resource for human life is scarce in a certain region, and therefore creative, expensive means have to be implemented to keep the population supplied with it, costs of living will go up, taxes will go up, people won’t be able to live as comfortably on the same income, and they’ll start looking to move elsewhere. Likewise, employers and businesses won’t be able turn the same kinds of profits they’re used to seeing or attract lower- to middle-income wage earners, and they’ll start leaving, too. That Free Press editorial was written by an economics professor, not a conservationist. What he’s referring to is an economic trend that’s been seen in the past, and we’ll see it here in the Southwest- I believe sooner rather than later.
In fact, it’s already happened in L.A., where the middle class has all but disappeared. L.A. now has the highest number of millionaires anywhere in the country, and also the highest number of people living in poverty. To anyone living on a middle-class income, as well as to employers, it’s a very unattractive place because costs of living and/or operating have gotten so high. The same will happen here, sooner rather than later- I believe 15 years on the outside, not 50 as you seem to think. You may be right that water will become a traded commodity on the stock market and folks will end up paying through the nose for it- in certain regions of the country, that is. You wouldn’t have to in the Midwest, where it’s so abundantly available that creative and costly means of delivering it to the people living there wouldn’t ever be necessary. The idea of having to pay for it as a traded stock market commodity, at least in that part of the country, where there’s a near-infinite supply of it in everyone’s backyard, is laughable. The Midwest also has plentiful oil refineries and access to cheap alternative power, such as the hydroelectric plants along the Great Lakes system and the Fermi nuclear plant. There are no refineries here in Arizona, so again, all fuel for automobiles and electric power have to be transported in from elsewhere, adding to the costs of living and doing business here.
So your comment about the Midwest training educated people just so they will leave and go to the South and West to find jobs, I don’t agree with- the jobs will come back to that region of the country when corporations find they can make higher profits there with lower operating and transportation costs thanks to a more stable and resource-plentiful environment. The idea is to make sure that there’s a trained and educated workforce waiting for them when they do.
First, "scores" of homeless do not die from the heat. Give me your source for that please. A handful are found dead, usually exhibiting severely compromised health from drugs or alcohol or malnutrition. AC is a comfort, but hardly a necessity. Properly hydrated, one can tolerate far more than this climate can dish out. People die from the heat because they can't cool and that is a humidity issue. Try getting yourself wet and stand in front of a fan in Phoenix summer. Getting out of the pool even in the hot summer nights puts goose-bumps all over you. It's coooold! All you need to survive here is a bottle of water and a shady spot. I worked in construction while I was in college building houses in Tucson. This was in mid-suumer in full sun. It was nasty, but you actually get used to the heat when you are outside of the AC.
AZ does not have refineries but neither do many states. Everybody has to import something that is needed for modern life. As for fossil fuels, we have an abundance in the Black Mesa area of NE AZ. There are several power plants in the SW that are fueled by Black Mesa coal - won't go into the environmental issues. AZ generates a significant portion of electricity for AZ and CA in the nation's largest nuclear plant, Palo Verde. Uranium that fuels the plant also comes from the Navajo Reservation in NE AZ/NW NM. The region also produces oil and natural gas. Much of the US copper comes from Arizona and virtually all of the winter lettuce. No salads for you Steve22 this year.
Anyway, hey if posting some trash about the sunbelt is going to keep people away, I say have at it. Lord knows, there are too many of them rust-belters and California dreamers here already. Katie, bar the door!
Last edited by Ponderosa; 11-30-2006 at 01:19 PM..
Just a thought. Sheriff Joe keeps hundreds of inmates out in tents in the heat of summer. No AC, no coolers, just water. None die (except from the tasers or choke holds).
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. Fair enough, I see where you are coming from and agree with you. I have been moving further and further out to avoid the onslaught of humanity, but have about had it. Next time I'm outta here completely. I will miss it. I have had a really nice life here.
this year.
Who says you need AC?
