The sharpest drop in unemployment since 1983 (economic, carry, election, elect)

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

I just posted in the other UE thread.

Between March 2010 and March 2011 we've created 1.5 million jobs (230K created by BLS) while 2.3 million came off the UE rolls.

More folks dropped off the rolls than jobs available for them.

Sure. Nothing unusual there - especially NOW when so many American (ie the huge demographic wave of the Babyboomers) are just now entering RETIREMENT age. Over the next couple of decades there will be FAR more people LEAVING the workforce than entering it. The PACE of those retirements will speed up over the next couple of years as the crest of the demographic wave begins to ride over the retirement age mark.

Note that this huge demographic wave is IN ADDITION to the folks who leave the work force for numerous OTHER reasons (ie get pregnant and decide to be a stay at home mom, go back to school, go on SS early because of illness or accident, or start their own business)

Ken

[Finn_Jarber]

Originally Posted by shorebaby

LOL, is the recovery you speak of?

The Weakest Post-Recession Recovery on Record (in graphs) - ETFdesk.com - Seeking Alpha

"Charts (from Dave Rosenberg) show that this is the weakest post-recession recovery on record. Anyone starting to question this 70% run up since March '09?"

Keep scraping for negativity, if that is what keeps you going.

[HappyTexan]

Originally Posted by LordBalfor

Sure. Nothing unusual there - especially NOW when so many American (ie the huge demographic wave of the Babyboomers) are just now entering RETIREMENT age. Over the next couple of decades there will be FAR more people LEAVING the workforce than entering it. The PACE of those retirements will speed up over the next couple of years as the crest of the demographic wave begins to ride over the retirement age mark.

Note that this huge demographic wave is IN ADDITION to the folks who leave the work force for numerous OTHER reasons (ie get pregnant and decide to be a stay at home mom, go back to school, go on SS early because of illness or accident, or start their own business)

Ken

Ken..this was people dropping off UE.
There is no data to back up that they dropped off UE because they retired.

The number of folks participating accounts for retirement and I didn't post that. That's about 64% now and it has been dropping over the past year as the BLS adjusted it.

[Finn_Jarber]

Originally Posted by LordBalfor

Sure. Nothing unusual there - especially NOW when so many American (ie the huge demographic wave of the Babyboomers) are just now entering RETIREMENT age. Over the next couple of decades there will be FAR more people LEAVING the workforce than entering it. The PACE of those retirements will speed up over the next couple of years as the crest of the demographic wave begins to ride over the retirement age mark.

Note that this huge demographic wave is IN ADDITION to the folks who leave the work force for numerous OTHER reasons (ie get pregnant and decide to be a stay at home mom, go back to school, go on SS early because of illness or accident, or start their own business)

Ken

There is actually a hiring boom underway for tech workers. I am in teach sector, so that it great news for me.

[HappyTexan]

Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber

There is actually a hiring boom underway for tech workers. I am in teach sector, so that it great news for me.

I've noticed that as well (also in the field).
Big jump in embedded (mobile) technology as well as analytics and social media.

[shorebaby]

Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber

Keep scraping for negativity, if that is what keeps you going.

Hey, I just happen to live in the real world. If you prefer fantasy land, stay there.....

[JazzyTallGuy]

Originally Posted by shorebaby

This is the weakest recession recovery ever. It took the Republican takeover of the House to kick start employment.

Actually you can't "kickstart employment that fast" sorry. The economic recovery has been underway for quite some time you just weren't noticing.

Facts are VERY INCONVENIENT THINGS for Conservatives and Obama haters.

The following is based on Dow Jones Industrial and Bureau of Economic Analysis stats:

When Barack Obama came into office:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had decline about 24% in the years George W. Bush Jr. was in office until the day he left.

The economy had NEGATIVE GDP growth.

January 2009 non-farm payrolls showed a LOSS of 779,000 month.

Personal income had decreased on a quarterly basis from Q3 2008 to Q1 2009

Starting in Q1 2008 until Q2 2009 Government Receipts declined every quarter.

Starting Q3 2007 until Q3 2009 Gross Domestic Investment fell in every quarter.

Private Fixed Investment in this country FELL every quarter in this country from Q2 2006 until Q3 2009

Exports declined in Q4 2008 and they decline for every quarter until Q3 2009


Since President Obama has been in office;

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen about 50%

The economy has had positive GDP growth for the past 6 quarters.

Non-farm payrolls have increased since October 2010.

Personal Income has increased every quarter Barack Obama has been in office.

Government Receipts have increased every quarter since Q2 2009.

Gross Domestic Investment has increased every quarter since Q4 2009.

Private Fixed Investment has increased every quarter since Q3 2009

Exports increased in Q4 2008 and they increased every quarter since in fact U.S exports are now at RECORD LEVELS. In fact since President Obama has been in office exports have increased 25%.

Oh, and by the way domestic crude oil production INCREASED in 2009 and 2010.

In the face of overwhelming evidence President Barack Obama has not destroyed the economy. The economy has actually had a slow steady and persistent recovery. Any statement to the contrary is more likely based on ideology, ignorance, hatred and misinformation than it is on fact.

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by shorebaby

LOL, is the recovery you speak of?

The Weakest Post-Recession Recovery on Record (in graphs) - ETFdesk.com - Seeking Alpha

"Charts (from Dave Rosenberg) show that this is the weakest post-recession recovery on record. Anyone starting to question this 70% run up since March '09?"

Not questioning it at all.
ANYONE with knowledge of the stock market knows that the markets care more about WHERE WE ARE GOING than WHERE WE CURRENTLY ARE. That's why the market started falling long the economy collapsed and started gaining long before the US economy was yet growing at a healthy state. It the REASON the stock market is considered a LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR just as the UE Rate is a TRAILING ECONOMIC INDICATOR. Some things happen early in a business cycle and somethings happen late in a business cycle. Stock markets changes happen EARLY, job growth (or shrinkage) happens at the tail-end.

This is why back in April of 2009 I posted that the economy was ALREADY THEN about to turn around (and jumped back into the Stock Market with both feet) - while all you "doom & gloom" types belittled that opinion. I KNEW better however because I'd been watching the LEI (Leading Indicators Index) and had noted that that index had finally turned POSITIVE. Sure enough, within just over a quarter the GDP was positive again and the economy growing. Within a year, monthly job loss had turned to month job GAIN. This growth DID stay weak for longer than I expected (roughly a full year) but late last year the pace recovery began to pick up and this year the pace has REALLY accelerated. There will be tremendous inprovement in the economy this year.



Ken

[shorebaby]

Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy

Actually you can't "kickstart employment that fast" sorry. The economic recovery has been underway for quite some time you just weren't noticing.

Facts are VERY INCONVENIENT THINGS for Conservatives and Obama haters.

The following is based on Dow Jones Industrial and Bureau of Economic Analysis stats:

When Barack Obama came into office:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had decline about 24% in the years George W. Bush Jr. was in office until the day he left.

The economy had NEGATIVE GDP growth.

January 2009 non-farm payrolls showed a LOSS of 779,000 month.

Personal income had decreased on a quarterly basis from Q3 2008 to Q1 2009

Starting in Q1 2008 until Q2 2009 Government Receipts declined every quarter.

Starting Q3 2007 until Q3 2009 Gross Domestic Investment fell in every quarter.

Private Fixed Investment in this country FELL every quarter in this country from Q2 2006 until Q3 2009

Exports declined in Q4 2008 and they decline for every quarter until Q3 2009


Since President Obama has been in office;

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen about 50%

The economy has had positive GDP growth for the past 6 quarters.

Non-farm payrolls have increased since October 2010.

Personal Income has increased every quarter Barack Obama has been in office.

Government Receipts have increased every quarter since Q2 2009.

Gross Domestic Investment has increased every quarter since Q4 2009.

Private Fixed Investment has increased every quarter since Q3 2009

Exports increased in Q4 2008 and they increased every quarter since in fact U.S exports are now at RECORD LEVELS. In fact since President Obama has been in office exports have increased 25%.

In the face of overwhelming evidence President Barack Obama has not destroyed the economy. The economy has actually had a slow steady and persistent recovery. Any statement to the contrary is more likely based on ideology, ignorance, hatred and misinformation than it is on fact.

Sorry, the facts speak for theselves. As I have pointed out earlier in this thread this is the weakest recovery ever, I encourage you to review the link.

Further, 6 months doesn't seem a short period of time to reassure the business community that Obama will be reigned in and fiscal policy will be controlled by cooler heads.

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

Ken..this was people dropping off UE.
There is no data to back up that they dropped off UE because they retired.

The number of folks participating accounts for retirement and I didn't post that. That's about 64% now and it has been dropping over the past year as the BLS adjusted it.

Here's the demographic wave of the babyboomers.
See for yourself what happens in 2010 (the very end of the demo) as the demographic wave gets up to retirement age. That's a LOT of folks hitting retirement age.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi..._1950-2010.gif

Ken