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Sure, but the point is not to show how it melts each year (though minimum extent is useful in many ways), rather that it is coming back each year.
The claim often made is that the ice is melting away and will be gone. The maximum extent shows that it is returning each year.
Again you show that you know nothing about the subject. Ice reflects the sun and keeps the ocean and surrounding areas cool, even during the sea ice minimum. Ice-free water absorbs IR and heats up. It takes the sea ice longer to come back each year, and each year it is thinner, so it melts earlier.
See for yourself. Put in your dates, 10 years apart, and go month by month.
Why are you using August numbers? That is not the minimum extent each year. Mid to late September is, so I find your selection of dates a bit baffling.
And what is it that you disproved?
That the maximum extent each year is followed by a minimum extent?
Again you show that you know nothing about the subject. Ice reflects the sun and keeps the ocean and surrounding areas cool, even during the sea ice minimum. Ice-free water absorbs IR and heats up. It takes the sea ice longer to come back each year, and each year it is thinner, so it melts earlier.
See for yourself. Put in your dates, 10 years apart, and go month by month.
By all means, provide the data to support your position. You made the objection, you support your claim.
Sure, but the point is not to show how it melts each year (though minimum extent is useful in many ways), rather that it is coming back each year.
The claim often made is that the ice is melting away and will be gone. The maximum extent shows that it is returning each year.
I don't think anyone, or at least anyone knowledgable, makes a claim that the ice won't come back in the winter. The claim is that it will all be gone in the summer, and that Arctic might become ice-free in the summer.
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The ice melts each year, this is a normal process and as some have pointed out, if you look at the historical records and accounts, it has melted to a much lower minimum in the past.
Would you care to share any links to any sources or data on a lower minimum in the past? I hadn't heard of one.
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The issue is then, what does this mean? well... /shrug
That is what has baffled those making the death spiral claims as their predictions of a continued loss have been wrong, dead wrong. Could the ice continue to lose?
Your post was quite thorough, but I don't get your conclusion. I would think that the low 2011 sea ice and the last four years confirms that the sea ice is melting. 2007 was the lowest extent of sea ice on record, deviating well below the mean sea ice. If we suppose that there is no trend in lower sea ice and the Arctic is not warming, 2007 would seem like a very unusual occurrence out of random. Having two years with very low sea ice levels (2007 and 2011) would be rarer still.
Now, if the climate is warming and summer sea ice levels have a declining trend, I wouldn't expect the summer sea ice levels to monotonically decline year after year. Instead, I would expect to see some random fluctuations due to local weather patterns where some years there is slightly more sea ice others slightly less, but the general trend if you an average over maybe 5 years would be a decline. I think a 5 year running mean would be more informative. So, no, I think very few are baffled except for strawmen. This person is still claiming an end to summer sea ice and is definitely not baffled:
I am not your dude... child, so please act like an adult and with some respect.
You made the claim, provide an example of your point. I am not going to do your work for you.
What work do I need to do for you? Repeat the link, already provided multiple times in this thread? Here you go. Since I know it's hard, I also put in the starting dates for you. Daily Arctic Sea Ice Maps
Now, after you look at the first page, you'll want to put in the next month in the search field, for both years. Compare them with your own eyes.
So you are peddling dogma and we can dismiss your objections for the rhetoric it is.
Why is that? Society and the threats to it have always been what interests me most. Things like climate change as such are irrelevant to me except for their influence on human life. I don't care for the poles and the ice caps and CO2 levels etc. as such. I only care about those things because changes there they might affect human life, including mine.
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Originally Posted by Nomander
And your point is?
So we should all jump on your dogma bandwagon and destroy economies and disregard liberties to serve your communist interest?
Well, I am indeed an anti-consumerist with minimalist tendencies. Indeed I think we should produce and consume much less stuff than in the past, except for food, which should be our main concern in life as it is the only thing we really need to survive. Everything else has just become totally bloated over the past century or so. Supply has mostly replaced demand as the driving force behind the economy, which is the wrong way to go in my view.
If our systems would be in trouble just because people stopped producing and buying all kinds of stuff they don't really need, then obviously the systems are not so good to begin with, a thought that scares the hell out of many modern people.
I am not in favor of living like cavemen, but using stuff does not mean replacing it all the time. One step to slow down production and consumption would be to increase the legal warranty period on electrical and electronic devices, appliances, machines, etc. to, say, 10 or 15 years. In their own interest manufacturers would thus be forced to produce high-quality devices again that last a really long time.
I don't think anyone, or at least anyone knowledgable, makes a claim that the ice won't come back in the winter. The claim is that it will all be gone in the summer, and that Arctic might become ice-free in the summer.
There is no evidence to validate such. We had a minimum in 2007 and that has not been reached again since. Now there are lots of claims about thin ice, warming oceans which they use to claim that it will all melt away, but this has not been substantiated yet and as you see, their predictions are consistently wrong on the loss of ice. They were baffled when 2008-2009 showed two years of growth in a row. The point is, as long as the ice can return to its maximum and conditions allow, ice can actually recover.
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Originally Posted by nei
Would you care to share any links to any sources or data on a lower minimum in the past? I hadn't heard of one.
Actually, if you read this thread, there have been some historical links provided already.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Your post was quite thorough, but I don't get your conclusion. I would think that the low 2011 sea ice and the last four years confirms that the sea ice is melting. 2007 was the lowest extent of sea ice on record, deviating well below the mean sea ice. If we suppose that there is no trend in lower sea ice and the Arctic is not warming, 2007 would seem like a very unusual occurrence out of random. Having two years with very low sea ice levels (2007 and 2011) would be rarer still.
How does it confirm? From the minimum of 2007, you had two years of solid growth, then a slight loss followed by a larger loss this year. That is not evidence of anything. The ice lost, it grew, it lost again and still ended up above 2007. Now if next year we see a drop below 2007, you might be able to suggest some trend, but what if next year grows again above its previous 2008, 2009, or 2010? The fact is, the claims of continued loss are not founded. They already made those bets and lost on all counts.
And how would it be rare? Based on what? What are you relating it to in order to come to such a conclusion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Now, if the climate is warming and summer sea ice levels have a declining trend, I wouldn't expect the summer sea ice levels to monotonically decline year after year. Instead, I would expect to see some random fluctuations due to local weather patterns where some years there is slightly more sea ice others slightly less, but the general trend if you an average over maybe 5 years would be a decline. I think a 5 year running mean would be more informative. So, no, I think very few are baffled except for strawmen. This person is still claiming an end to summer sea ice and is definitely not baffled:
What part of their models and predictions that have failed every time do you not understand? If they know what is happening, then why can they not account for the divergence in their claimed trend (growth in 2008 and 2009)? Each year the ice does not melt to the level they desire, it is a back stepping excuse session about how it will still happen and the issue is dire and that it is obvious and yet each year they get stumped and have to come up with another excuse as to why it didn't do what they claimed it would.
The fact is, each year it is claimed, and each year they are shown to be wrong. Guess we will have to wait and see next year and what this winter brings.
Last edited by Nomander; 09-19-2011 at 10:17 AM..
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