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I did miss that but in the end, it doesn't matter. Few 'feel' the macro economic effect.
Then why'd you bring it up? Most won't take heed of $13/check or $40/check. Now, give me $500, $800 or a $1000 and I will note the difference. But no, obama and his minions MUST be in control down to the bitter end. Based on how the recipients of the stimulus tax "cut" felt, the payroll cut was predictable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTAtech
What I'm saying is that people's perception of economic areas are fuzzy and inaccurate. But I stand by the smart economists, not polls, and the economists say the macro economic effect is +1/2% of GDP.
Right. They're only LIVING it, while the "experts", "economists" are making estimates based on outdated, flawed models.
Then why'd you bring it up? Most won't take heed of $13/check or $40/check. Now, give me $500, $800 or a $1000 and I will note the difference. But no, obama and his minions MUST be in control down to the bitter end. Based on how the recipients of the stimulus tax "cut" felt, the payroll cut was predictable.
Right. They're only LIVING it, while the "experts", "economists" are making estimates based on outdated, flawed models.
Why don't you let us know how the models are flawed? The fact is that whenever facts undercut your notions and assertions, you dismiss the facts.
From where I sit, the GOP models are flawed. The GOP model predicted that if the Fed tripled the money supply, it would lead to inflation and high interest rates. The Keynesian economists said that was nonsense. Three years later, we have virtually no inflation and record low interest rates. Gee, who was right?
The GOP models said that the best fiscal policy would be massive austerity. Keynesian economists said that expansionary policy leads to growth. Well, they are trying austerity in the UK. The result: more unemployment and further drops in output.
When we review which economic models have been correct predictors, it's been the Keynesians. Fortunately, we didn't have the GOP running the economy. They would have cut spending, which would have lead to greater job losses. They would have raised interest rates, which would have slashed any chance of recovery.
What I'm saying is that people's perception of economic areas are fuzzy and inaccurate. But I stand by the smart economists, not polls, and the economists say the macro economic effect is +1/2% of GDP.
Do the smart economists all happen to be Keynesians?
Why don't you let us know how the models are flawed? The fact is that whenever facts undercut your notions and assertions, you dismiss the facts.
From where I sit, the GOP models are flawed. The GOP model predicted that if the Fed tripled the money supply, it would lead to inflation and high interest rates. The Keynesian economists said that was nonsense. Three years later, we have virtually no inflation and record low interest rates. Gee, who was right?
The GOP models said that the best fiscal policy would be massive austerity. Keynesian economists said that expansionary policy leads to growth. Well, they are trying austerity in the UK. The result: more unemployment and further drops in output.
When we review which economic models have been correct predictors, it's been the Keynesians. Fortunately, we didn't have the GOP running the economy. They would have cut spending, which would have lead to greater job losses. They would have raised interest rates, which would have slashed any chance of recovery.
What happened to Greece?
When did the GOP ever slash spending when they were in power?
Was there ever a stronger Keynesian as President than GW Bush?
On Greece, remember that Greece's economy to Europe is the same as Miami's economy to the U.S.
Second, Greece doesn't have it's own currency. Part of the answer is that countries on the euro are stuck with a severe competitiveness problem that can only be resolved with grinding deflation, making their debt problems worse. On top of that, however, is the proposition that countries without their own currency are subject to self-fulfilling crises in a way that nations that still have a currency of their own are not. The point is that fears of default, by driving up interest costs, can themselves trigger default by driving up interest costs.
This thread is not about corporate jet tax breaks or whatever, which I know nothing about, so I'm not even qualified to speak on the matter.
This thread is about the ill-conceived FICA tax holiday which has caused more harm than good, and the full extent of the damage is yet to be known.
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertdetroiter
This is an amazing change in right wing philosophy. Now tax cuts aren't good nor bad.
They are bad when they cause more harm than good. This is what Social Security claims will be is revenues under its Low Cost Assumption Model between now and 2020:
Sorry, SSA FICA revenues are not going to increase 28.82% this year. That has nothing to do with the FICA tax holiday. That is just really shoddy economic actuarial estimates from Social Security.
The only possible way you can meet the 28.82% increase in Social Security revenues is with 5% unemployment and a minimum labor participation rate of 66.4%, as of January 1. You didn't make the mark.
As a result, the government is going to have to cough up $500 Billion ($0.5 TRILLION) this year out of the General Fund to both cover the FICA tax holiday, and cover the short-fall created because of both high unemployment and a low labor participation rate.
In fact, you'll have, in the best case scenario, a short-fall of $7,522.9 TRILLION by the time 2020 rolls around.
That's an average of $1.88 Billion per year, which you don't have and which will have to come out of the General Fund, and which will be charged to the OASI/OADI Trust Fund causing it to collapse sometime between 2025-2028.
How can you hand over $100 Million to workers on a federal contract if $100 Million is being used to cover the FICA tax holiday and the FICA short-fall?
You might want to actually look at like fedbizopps etc to see the contracts that have been pulled, cancelled, or put on hold indefinitely. Go peruse some of the office and agency web-sites and see how their budgets are frozen.
It was discretionary spending that kept your economy from rolling back into a recession. You spent $12 TRILLION over 3 years for a dismal $500 Billion increase in GDP. And now you're cutting discretionary spending. And worse than that, how long do you think you can keep your FICA tax holiday running?
When it ends, and your economy starts slowing down again, then what?
None of you thought this FICA tax cut through very well, and you're going to pay the price for it, and it will be even harder when FICA jumps to 16.4%, like Social Security says you need to do to have even a chance of saving that program. Unless of course, you don't want Social Security any more.
Do no harm....
What I'm saying is that people's perception of economic areas are fuzzy and inaccurate. But I stand by the smart economists, not polls, and the e upqconomists say the macro economic effect is +1/2% of GDP.
The smart economists are not factoring in the depressive impact of silly gimmicks that run up the deficit nor the benefial effect that some slight show of discipline might produce. Half a point of GDP ought to be lost in the noise of a more vibrant economy.
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