Chinese paper says China should stay neutral if North Korea attacks first (Iraq, generation)
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The bold depends on Kim's mental state. I would start to worry if Kim suffered from some kind of terminal illness. Kim doesn't have a son, only a daughter. You and I both know (I assume you know) he can care less about his fellow North Koreans. So if he suffered from terminal mental illness, he would do something radical and crazy.
I've been reading Chinese political blogs in the past several weeks. It looks like most Chinese understand the fact that China would have to defend N.K if N.K is attacked because of the peace treaty.
Thank you.
Yep; I doubt there is anyone on the planet without the awareness that Kim's compassion for his fellow man is limited in the extreme.
I opine that were the only consideration, the Status Quo of N.Korea, this game would have been over decades ago, but with the Chicoms in the mix it has been allowed to fester like an open boil on a rhino's butt in a hands off so as to prevent China and perhaps Russia getting involved.
Any response to whatever Kim does short of a nuclear attack would then have to be considered carefully so as not to draw China into the fray. A terrible conundrum that should be shared by all civilized nations and not just the U.S.
Yep; I doubt there is anyone on the planet without the awareness that Kim's compassion for his fellow man is limited in the extreme.
I opine that were the only consideration, the Status Quo of N.Korea, this game would have been over decades ago, but with the Chicoms in the mix it has been allowed to fester like an open boil on a rhino's butt in a hands off so as to prevent China and perhaps Russia getting involved.
Any response to whatever Kim does short of a nuclear attack would then have to be considered carefully so as not to draw China into the fray. A terrible conundrum that should be shared by all civilized nations and not just the U.S.
I didn't mean to downplay Guam or its citizens or even our military there, but hitting California with nukes would be devastating in that millions would die, plus who knows about what kind of earthquake chain of events it could set off.
A. As I said, Guam is a valid military target. It's the base of the forces that would attack North Korea. Striking anywhere else first would leave the US nuclear forces in Guam safe to counterattack. Striking anyplace else than Guam first would be strategically stupid.
B. "Millions" would not die from one nuclear bomb anywhere in California. Nuclear weapons are not that magical.
Not even remotely. While THADD may have some limitations of 3 missiles at the same time, that doesnt take into account what the naval assets take out first.
That's not something to be seen tested unnecessarily. Never underestimate the fog of war.
annoucing that you are firing a missile towards guam might create a legal issue, but announcing that you are going to fire a missile AT guam, there is no legal grey area there, that is an direct threat and an act of war.
They said, specifically, "twenty-five miles" away from Guam. That's twice the distance of the US Exclusion Zone...but close enough to make the point.
Well, like fools we never consider the first strike for this reason. That's okay so long as you can defeat the strike and in return respond 3X fold or more immediately....you won't likely get a second chance so.....I can't believe we would strike first unless we spotted missiles fueling on the launch pad or lighting up...at that point, it's an eminent threat and a full retaliatory response is required....enter the Ohio Class Subs....
Not really. After destroying the target, it would be impossible to prove it existed as a threat in the first place. They've been testing a missile every few months--it would be impossible to destroy one on the ground and prove afterwards that particular missile was intended to be an attack.
Let me get this right. If North Korea bombs the US, the Chinese won't object if the US defends itself? How gracious of them! It's time to cut off the sweet trade deals with this criminal dictatorship.
How I took it was that if NK attacks us then China will sit it out. If the USA attacks first then they are all in. An ultimatum of their own if you will.
A. As I said, Guam is a valid military target. It's the base of the forces that would attack North Korea. Striking anywhere else first would leave the US nuclear forces in Guam safe to counterattack. Striking anyplace else than Guam first would be strategically stupid.
B. "Millions" would not die from one nuclear bomb anywhere in California. Nuclear weapons are not that magical.
Who's to say it would be just one? We also have bases in Japan and South Korea, South Korea is where the immediate response would come from, if he bombs Guam. Taking out Japan first should be his goal if he wants to start a war. One of our largest naval fleets is in Japan and more than likely quite a few Nuclear subs.
We cannot negotiate with NK. Kim will use any attempts at negotiations as buying time to continue developing their nuclear program. This nut is not interested in making deals. I'm certain his intentions are to get nukes so he can attack SK conventionally or limited nukes, take it back and threaten the US with retaliation with multiple warheads on US soil which will have accuracy by now if the US tries to stop them. China will not stop them. China is supporting NK behind the curtains. That's why they don't take action even though this guy could launch a nuke at Bejing or Shanghai anytime he wants. China's reticence is enigmatic.
Who's to say it would be just one? We also have bases in Japan and South Korea, South Korea is where the immediate response would come from, if he bombs Guam. Taking out Japan first should be his goal if he wants to start a war. One of our largest naval fleets is in Japan and more than likely quite a few Nuclear subs.
There is lots of complexity to the situation of an all-out exchange of fire with conventional or even nuclear weapons.
Seoul is only 35 miles from the DMZ and there is a huge number batteries of NK Artillery aimed at Seoul. In fact an analyst stated that within 1 hour the NK batteries could drop a shell in every square foot of Seoul - a city of 25 million people (assuming no counter-attack). There are something like 30K US troops stationed in SK but perhaps NK would prefer to attack the US or Japan. Japan could be hit with intermediate range missiles with conventional, or chemical warheads. Tokyo is the biggest metro area in the world and within range. However both Seoul and Tokyo have both Patriot and THAAD which could likely intercept any attack.
So does a limited but punishing preemptive strike stand any likelihood of success ? Probably not because the North would likely respond with their ace weapon - a nuke. Even one detonated at the DMZ could irradiate Seoul and kill millions as could an hour of artillery fire with conventional or chemical weapons. YES such an event would be the end of NK as we know it but the North would be wasted, perhaps parts of the South too. Millions would be dead so NO pre-emptive attack is NOT a good idea.
Would the young god-like leader pre-emptively attack Guam, Japan, South Korea or the US Mainland in a first strike ? Maybe, but why would he do something he knows would result in his annihilation ? Certainly the end of life as he knows it.
This brings us to but one logical conclusion. Hopefully our own god-like leader is of a similar mindset.
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