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We've had some good numbers in the past month and stock market is doing well, but I am not convinced yet that the economy is doing well. I'll wait for at least a couple months of consistent numbers, either positive or negative. My financial guy advised taking the earnings and putting them in more conservative investments right now.
"While nobody has really been expecting a huge boom in U.S. auto sales, the market has actually fallen below projected market forecasts. Overall, sales are down 2.3 percent"
Just another point of data for you. Car sales...for MANY months, have been relatively flat but no one expected them to be down in April.
If you will "wait" it indicates something very important....that you don't buy the hype and that you are more in agreement with me that, at best, things are "stable".
Any way you slice it - all that data doesn't show the Bigly Words from the best POTUS of all time.
Motor vehicles are VERY indicative as most everyone needs them.
The stock market is now up about 6% a year for the last 17 months - that's close to 1/2 of what a decent booming economy usually produces. That INCLUDES all the free money (tax reform), the low interest rates and the trillion dollar deficits forevermore.
No one can predict the future - but we can predict the past because we have data. If the stock market and vehicle sales and housing starts and consumer durable goods are not up, the tale is clear....that the average person isn't seeing anything.
My guy has me slowly shifting money from stocks and stock funds into bonds and income funds. I'm comfortable with this.
Is he telling you that Trumps messing with the Fed will make you lose money with bonds? That is, if you buy now and Trump lowers rates or keeps them stable, your interest rate return be poor. If the next POTUS then lets the Fed normalize, you will be holding a bunch of bonds at low rates, while others can buy bonds that pay much more.
I'm interested - why wouldn't an advisor put people into AT&T paying 5.5% dividends or many decent REITS paying 5% to 10%.
Do you or your advisors believe more in the Federal Government under Trump or in the fact that people use cell phones and need places to live?
Always remember the advise of the Great Ones. In general, you should run the OTHER way from the masses. The Trump Era will end and sanity may return......if you think NOT, then definitely stock up on Gold and Short Term Treasuries...although, knowing Trump, he will also mess with our obligation to pay debt (your treasury bonds).
He has actually said this....so, if you believe him, then consider it.
Personally I believe a LOT of businesses are more stable than the Stable Genius, so I'm not very far into bonds even tho I am older.
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What I would like a pundit or two here to explain to me is quite simple!
The OP was 16 months ago. That is a data point, but a bigger one than usual due to "tax reform" having gone into gear at the same time.
Dow was 25.3 when OP was written
Today we have DOW 26.3
That gives us the following returns:
8% total in 16 months.
.5% per month (or 6% per year)
So, pundits, why? Are we poised on the precipice of a couple thousand more points instantly which are going to make it "good" or "great"?
One can compare that to various figures.....such as the 14-16% plus yearly rise over the 8 Obama years (depends on how you calculate and compound!) or the approx. 10% return since before the Great Depression (90 years back)....
These things tend to level out - I have little doubt the market will be higher at the end of Trumps 4 or 8 years than it was when he took office, but I am almost certain it won't beat Obama or Clinton! I'd be very surprised if we hit historical averages.
One could call this "OK". But they can't call it "a great economy" and they can't call it "better performance than under Obama or Clinton or Reagan". You just can't. The math does not add up.
IMHO, it would usually be more fair to measure from a year into each POTUS term to a year after, being as no POTUS does anything in a few months which can show up in real numbers. The inherit something - good or bad.
Either way, though, the Trump economy isn't looking like his claims....
"An economic miracle is taking place in the United States"
"There has been nothing like it."
"“probably the best our country has ever done”
C'mon...those of you who are fact based fans of Orange, please give me a reason why this "tax reform" and all the other bluster is resulting in less than Full Steam Ahead???
What I would like a pundit or two here to explain to me is quite simple!
The OP was 16 months ago. That is a data point, but a bigger one than usual due to "tax reform" having gone into gear at the same time.
Dow was 25.3 when OP was written
Today we have DOW 26.3
That gives us the following returns:
8% total in 16 months.
.5% per month (or 6% per year)
So, pundits, why? Are we poised on the precipice of a couple thousand more points instantly which are going to make it "good" or "great"?
One can compare that to various figures.....such as the 14-16% plus yearly rise over the 8 Obama years (depends on how you calculate and compound!) or the approx. 10% return since before the Great Depression (90 years back)....
These things tend to level out - I have little doubt the market will be higher at the end of Trumps 4 or 8 years than it was when he took office, but I am almost certain it won't beat Obama or Clinton! I'd be very surprised if we hit historical averages.
One could call this "OK". But they can't call it "a great economy" and they can't call it "better performance than under Obama or Clinton or Reagan". You just can't. The math does not add up.
IMHO, it would usually be more fair to measure from a year into each POTUS term to a year after, being as no POTUS does anything in a few months which can show up in real numbers. The inherit something - good or bad.
Either way, though, the Trump economy isn't looking like his claims....
"An economic miracle is taking place in the United States"
"There has been nothing like it."
"“probably the best our country has ever done”
C'mon...those of you who are fact based fans of Orange, please give me a reason why this "tax reform" and all the other bluster is resulting in less than Full Steam Ahead???
Can't get the democrats on board with prosperity.
They are bent on giving everything away for free and people are concerned about that.
Besides what difference does it make. You have been losing ever since you started posting. How much could you really have at risk now ?
DOW busted open 150 points up today on lowest unemployment in 50 years. Go Trump go!
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