Tariffs will now cost American households up to $1,000 per year: J.P. Morgan (biased, economic)

[craigiri]

Originally Posted by TMSRetired

Can none of you give me a specific example ?

This is the 2nd of 3 waves of tariffs. What has increased since the first tariff was implemented ?

I gave you an example.

Let's make it easy. One line.

You pay the tens of billions to the farmers who Trump gives free money too. A cost.

Done.

---------------
No, there are no "waves" of tariffs.....there are waves of tweets, but Trump just delayed the big tariffs until after Christian importing season.

It shouldn't be hard to understand the word "IF"....and the scenarios presented by JPM would only apply if and when all tariffs went into play AND the supply line was emptied out of pre-tariff products, etc. etc.

That will likely be never...I agree...so it won't cost $1,000 a customer. But it will cost many American businesses billions of dollars each...just in equity prices, let alone the damage done by having to plan compete rejigger of supply chains.

If you cannot understand complex systems then you are not hired to discuss them. If you want to try and understand them, you should admit your lack of understanding and then we can move forward.

I'll get you started.

Company A is subject to actual tariffs for part of 2018.
They therefore "eat" most of the costs because the customer won't go for higher prices.
The slow economy means that they can't make it up in volume.
They will therefore lose money or make less than before.
Their stock price, along with millions of their shareholders net worth, goes down (or doesn't go up as much).

Company B has been threatened with Tariffs.
They have to appoint an entire team to study, plan, travel and decide how and where they are going to move some factories. This costs money.
The owners, or shareholders, make less as a result....which hurts the economy (compared to the regular business norms).

Company C exports most of their products. Countries retaliate by placing tariffs on their products...so they can't compete with other countries....and/or they sell less and their shares or profits head south too.

Again, the entire reason for the tariffs is to make Americans pay more. The formula is "If Americans have to pay more for a Chinese tool, then they will buy the American made tool (which costs more)".

You are basically saying - and then trying to prove - that water is not wet.

I'm done with explaining this one to you. Just consider that water IS wet and you will get the basic idea.

[pennyone]

Originally Posted by PedroMartinez

Lol.

It only "costs you" if you're buying Chinese products.

How much of your food other needs are made in China?

Yes, but how much more do you pay for non chinese stuff, even with the tariff. One way or another, it’s coming out of the American family picket.

[PedroMartinez]

Originally Posted by pennyone

Yes, but how much more do you pay for non chinese stuff, even with the tariff. One way or another, it’s coming out of the American family picket.

You have a CHOICE to spend more to buy that new electronic doodad.

Do you think we should lower corporate taxes to reduce the amount consumers pay or are you only concerned when it's Chinese products?

[oceangaia]

Originally Posted by subaru5555

“Specific Example”, courtesy of the New York Fed:



https://libertystreeteconomics.newyo...ic-prices.html

There was an even steeper jump in washing machine and dryer prices in 2011-2012. What tariffs caused that?

[Donna-501]

Originally Posted by biggunsmallbrains

Tariffs, aka taxes. Remember when the Tea party was apoplectic over such things? Fun times. Trump, the gift that keeps on giving.

Tariffs are expected to cost American households up to $1,000 per year when the next round goes into effect on September 1, according to a new note by J.P. Morgan.

According to the bank’s analysts, the cost of the U.S.-China trade war borne by consumers is likely to rise from around $600 per year — based on the first two “phases” of the tariffs on Chinese imports — to around $1,000, based on the third round of tariffs.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...115849705.html

He likes the biggest deficits and now he wants us to pay more because he is a lunatic that doesn't really care.

[craigiri]

Originally Posted by mirage98de

I mean this in the nicest way possible.

You have no idea what you are talking about. I directly work with this in my field and have a front row seat for what’s going on. Can you say the same?

If you are asking whether I've owned and run importing firms, distributing firms, manufacturing and retail...then the answer is yes. I paid tariffs. I dealt with currency exchange. I dealt with imported and domestic parts to create final assemblies.

No doubt we are all the Blind men and the elephant. We each see what we see....my experience in these matters is since about 1982 and yet it's not big time in terms of 100's of millions of dollars.

I do have many friends and contacts including some at Chinese owned firms and some at American firms who are based in China and Vietnam...setting up manufacturing or QC.

I'm not clueless but I certainly don't know everything. I do know that punitive broad based tariffs are not a success strategy to accomplish most such goals.

If other countries throw punitive tariffs or cut out American high tech and other companies...we'll be in for a real hurting. My take is that it's called a Trade War for a reason. Once you start it (and it's not really started yet...IMHO) the repercussions are not predictable. if they were you could become a billionaire and no longer have to work in the field...just by placing the right trades!

[subaru5555]

Originally Posted by oceangaia

There was an even steeper jump in washing machine and dryer prices in 2011-2012. What tariffs caused that?

How is that relevant? There was no associated change in the CPI.

How does that disprove the fact that consumers ultimately bear the weight of tariffs?

[craigiri]

Originally Posted by PedroMartinez

Lol.

It only "costs you" if you're buying Chinese products.

How much of your food other needs are made in China?

You will likely never know....and couldn't unless you were a journalist and spent years deconstructing shell companies.

We all know most high tech is Made there. So if "needs" including anything with a chip in it, including
cameras
cell phones
computers and tablets
internet routers
medical monitors and systems
automobile electronics
and much more....

are largely tied into China.

But at the lower level the biggest US PorK producer (Smithfield) is just one of a multitude of firms which is Chinese owned and run. Chinese own vast amounts of American farmlands...they are building many multi-billion dollar chemical complexes here.

We could go on for books worth...but that's just a small part.

You are effectively putting forth the idea that 100's of Billions of dollars worth of stuff used in the USA.....are not part of our "needs". That's fantastic.

[TMSRetired]

Originally Posted by subaru5555

How is that relevant? There was no associated change in the CPI.

How does that disprove the fact that consumers ultimately bear the weight of tariffs?

Then maybe US production might resume if "Made in the USA" becomes cheaper than "Made in China".

[oceangaia]

Originally Posted by subaru5555

How is that relevant? There was no associated change in the CPI.

How does that disprove the fact that consumers ultimately bear the weight of tariffs?

It doesn't prove or disprove anything except to show that prices increase for many reasons and you can't just attribute a price increase to a single factor.