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Old 09-22-2020, 04:42 PM
 
Location: Where the College Used to Be
3,731 posts, read 2,061,759 times
Reputation: 3069

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BoBromhal View Post
it would, and why they don't provide that stat is just another log on the fire.

As I said earlier, deaths generally follow 10-20 days (really is close to the 20 days since May) after positivity. When cases peak, deaths peak by 20 days later. So the correlation ends then, yes? I don't want to use a specific math/science term incorrectly.
Correlation would imply a relationship between the two, but not a relationship of cause.

“Cases were up and then 20 days later deaths were up” as a correlation would mean increased cases didn’t cause increased deaths

Height and weight are a simple example of a correlation. An increase in height tends to see an increase in weight, but height doesn’t cause weight; as there are clearly many examples of tall skinny people and short chubby people.

However, to your point, absent the actual data point (infected X date, died Y date) tracking case peaks and corresponding death peaks is probably as good a proxy as we may have.


ETA - Big Data people are probably licking their chops at the chance to modernize anonymized medical data to model this much more effectively. Frankly could be a gold mine
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Old 09-22-2020, 04:44 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,235,076 times
Reputation: 14408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Way2land View Post
Brand new science out of NC!

7% capacity allowed at stadiums.

(Also a new tracking app. If you are into that sort of thing. I am not)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ITB_OG View Post
Well that's a relief! While we've been struggling to work and run a school at my house, I couldn't help but think what we really need is for stadiums to open up. Thank goodness they saw fit to put the time and energy into fixing that.
leet do a simple calculation. Carter Finley seats ~60K. The stands run 2 sides x100 yards x 60 yards "depth"(sidelines) and 2 sides x 60 yards x 40 yards (endzones). The seating area is about 150,000 sqft.

at 7% capacity, that's 4,200 people, each of whom gets the 36 sqft (6x6) safe distance. Nevermind that you're outside. Of course, I haven't read up - but does that include or exclude stadium staff?
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Old 09-22-2020, 04:44 PM
 
Location: 2*** Chelmsford Ct, Cary NC
826 posts, read 245,272 times
Reputation: 540
Quote:
Originally Posted by HouseBuilder328 View Post
It's people with you mentality saying that - you can go ahead and reply for them. This is a forum that represents around 1% of the population of the Triangle.


There are now TWO pediatrics patients in the local area hospitals with large lung scarring and they have no past medical history. Why? Do you even care? Sorry, your Dow Jones is more important like Trump.
You have a lot of projection and assumption going on there. I will pass on further conversation with you, as you obviously are reading what you expect to read, not what I am writing. Plus we are not supposed to bring that type of politics into this thread. Best of luck going forward and stay safe.
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:00 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,235,076 times
Reputation: 14408
Quote:
Originally Posted by HouseBuilder328 View Post
It's people with you mentality saying that - you can go ahead and reply for them. This is a forum that represents around 1% of the population of the Triangle.


There are now TWO pediatrics patients in the local area hospitals with large lung scarring and they have no past medical history. Why? Do you even care? Sorry, your Dow Jones is more important like Trump.
you really should just refrain, if you cannot participate within the rules.

There are 2 otherwise very healthy children currently in the ICU, who have serious pulmonary issues that might become long-term health problems. That's sad, horrible, even call it tragic. I think we all agree that we hope that their good fortune of being under excellent medical care will help them recover as completely as possible.

It is also true that in NC, we have 1 death below age 18. I have no doubt the parent(s) and family of that child grieve tremendously, whether that child was "perfectly healthy" or had stage 4 terminal cancer with weeks to live. That child was not in Wake County, but it matters not a bit. There's a family in grief.

Let's assume both children that you know about are from Wake County. Will you divulge how many Wake Co children HAVE gone to the ICU? It would help the understanding of the issue.

In Wake County, there are about 250,000 children. There have been 2,586 test positive. So we know about 2 hospitalizations. That would be 0.08% of cases and 0.0008% of population. That would be the statistical definition of "almost none" - 1 in 1,000 cases = hospitalizations and 1 in 100,000 of the population.
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,235,076 times
Reputation: 14408
Within an hour of Wake County (Durham and Wilson) 2 children under 17 have died from gunshot in the last 30 days. Are their deaths more, less, or equally as tragic?

Should we take measures more, less, or equal to COVID to try and end these deaths?
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:17 PM
 
1,462 posts, read 661,792 times
Reputation: 4813
Gentlemen, it is not your place to suggest that Housebuilder should "refrain" if he/she does not follow the rules. Remember you are not the moderator of this forum. Now that is clearly against the rules of citydata.
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:20 PM
 
Location: NC
1,326 posts, read 725,932 times
Reputation: 1500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shallow Hal View Post
Gentlemen, it is not your place to suggest that Housebuilder should "refrain" if he/she does not follow the rules. Remember you are not the moderator of this forum. Now that is clearly against the rules of citydata.
Pot meet kettle.
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,235,076 times
Reputation: 14408
Quote:
Originally Posted by GVoR View Post
Correlation would imply a relationship between the two, but not a relationship of cause.

“Cases were up and then 20 days later deaths were up” as a correlation would mean increased cases didn’t cause increased deaths

Height and weight are a simple example of a correlation. An increase in height tends to see an increase in weight, but height doesn’t cause weight; as there are clearly many examples of tall skinny people and short chubby people.

However, to your point, absent the actual data point (infected X date, died Y date) tracking case peaks and corresponding death peaks is probably as good a proxy as we may have.


ETA - Big Data people are probably licking their chops at the chance to modernize anonymized medical data to model this much more effectively. Frankly could be a gold mine
thanks for the enlightenment!

yes, there's got to be money to be made. State of NC pays SAS "something" for the Schools data, so why aren't we already paying them to do a "Johns Hopkins" look at Covid?
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:24 PM
 
Location: Where the College Used to Be
3,731 posts, read 2,061,759 times
Reputation: 3069
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoBromhal View Post
Within an hour of Wake County (Durham and Wilson) 2 children under 17 have died from gunshot in the last 30 days. Are their deaths more, less, or equally as tragic?

Should we take measures more, less, or equal to COVID to try and end these deaths?
Ha, good luck with that debate
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Where the College Used to Be
3,731 posts, read 2,061,759 times
Reputation: 3069
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoBromhal View Post
thanks for the enlightenment!

yes, there's got to be money to be made. State of NC pays SAS "something" for the Schools data, so why aren't we already paying them to do a "Johns Hopkins" look at Covid?
SAS would be the prime candidate from my seat. I’m surprised they didn’t partner with the State to do this.

They have the brain power, the tools and the native connectivity to visualization to make a perfect partner....and they’re local.

People helping People as Jeremy Grey would say
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