Oceanside real estate, low as it will go? (San Diego, Vista: real estate market, foreclosure)

[sfw1979]

Hey guys,

I posted this in the real estate forum but got no responses so I thought I'd post it here too.
We are relocating to Socal in March and are going to be looking for a home to buy. We are looking at the Rancho del oro areas of Oceanside and was wondering if you guys think the real estate is pretty much as low as it will go? Most of the homes we are looking at sold for 550k 2 years ago and are going from 300-375k now, depending on yard size, home size etc... I know no one can predict what is going to happen just wanted some opinions from people who live in the area to let me know what you think. Also, I have been looking at ziprealty.com for listings and they list the taxes for the homes. Does 5-6k per year sound right for the homes in that area that are selling in the 300's?

Thanks for any responses! Have a great day!!!

[dweej]

We've been house hunting too lately- but are refusing to go in for the kill yet. Because Oceanside is not always people's first choice when moving to SD county, home prices in surrounding cities (Carlsbad, San Marcos. Not so much Vista probably) will likely increase before O'side's do. I'm almost certain that prices will continue to drop. The inventory still greatly exceeds the demand. Good luck!

[72degreeboredom]

We own in Oceanside. Purchased our townhome in the fall of 2002 for 200,000 (for comparison same condo in San Diego would have cost about 275k at that time). Current market value is about 175-180 (they sold for 335-350 in late 2005). Prices are always considerably lower in Oceanside due to numerous factors. As with all communities in San Diego, there is a sharp contrast between the newer, affluent areas (like Rancho Del Oro) and the older, poorer neighborhoods. However, it remains the best deal for coastal living in San Diego County. Are prices going to continue to drop lower? No one knows for certain, and there are plenty of voices suggesting they will as more people foreclose. Although 180k represents a not-insignificant loss in home value for us, it's still about 50k more than these same properties were selling for in 2000, two years before we bought, and the beginning of the real estate boom. So, with that simple knowledge (and I'm not an economist or a realtor), I'd say there is still room for further price declines.

[kettlepot]

I'm hearing more and more talk from economists and the like that coastal California is very near the bottom This doesn't apply to inland California such as the Inland Empire and the Central Valley, and no one is saying that prices will start rising. It is my belief that if you buy now, you won't be facing any nasty 10% or 20% price declines. Actual appreciation is probably 3 to 4 years in the future.

As for property taxes, in California they should be very close to 1.1% of your purchase price. The property taxes that are listed on the websites either relate to what the previous owner was paying becuase he bought at the top of the market, or it's a newer house in a previously undeveloped area that has Mello-Roos fees to pay for roads, sewer, libraries, schools, parks, etc.

[Mugsy]

If you want to find insight on this area there is a person is a Realtor and has a blog. He covers North County.

Google bubble info journal for the website.

I read his blog for insight from time to time.

[beachrescue]

OK.......your first mistake is talking to realtors they are delusional about the real estate market as much now as they have been for years. Ask a banker or a commercial banker they will let you in on what you need to know about buying property. To answer your question, of course property is going to go lower there are no qualified buyers and there won't be for years. There are hundreds of foreclosed houses you can get for under 200k, if you have the money. I think you are not clued in as to what is going on, there is not a bank in town right now that can lend, they don't have the money and in march it is going to be 10 times worse, wait and don't buy anything right now listen to the what is going on around you, I have a half acre in Imperial Beach with 2 houses on it that we cant get off our book's as it was a foreclosure we have buyers with 789 credit and the lenders say come up with 75% and we will consider it.

[sfw1979]

Originally Posted by beachrescue

OK.......your first mistake is talking to realtors they are delusional about the real estate market as much now as they have been for years. Ask a banker or a commercial banker they will let you in on what you need to know about buying property. To answer your question, of course property is going to go lower there are no qualified buyers and there won't be for years. There are hundreds of foreclosed houses you can get for under 200k, if you have the money. I think you are not clued in as to what is going on, there is not a bank in town right now that can lend, they don't have the money and in march it is going to be 10 times worse, wait and don't buy anything right now listen to the what is going on around you, I have a half acre in Imperial Beach with 2 houses on it that we cant get off our book's as it was a foreclosure we have buyers with 789 credit and the lenders say come up with 75% and we will consider it.

We are fine in the lending department. I understand what you are saying as far as lending is tighter but to say I have no clue about loans is a very big generalization, we are ok in that area.
I am just trying to get a feel for a particular area.
Thank you all for your responses.

[sfw1979]

Originally Posted by kettlepot

I'm hearing more and more talk from economists and the like that coastal California is very near the bottom This doesn't apply to inland California such as the Inland Empire and the Central Valley, and no one is saying that prices will start rising. It is my belief that if you buy now, you won't be facing any nasty 10% or 20% price declines. Actual appreciation is probably 3 to 4 years in the future.

As for property taxes, in California they should be very close to 1.1% of your purchase price. The property taxes that are listed on the websites either relate to what the previous owner was paying becuase he bought at the top of the market, or it's a newer house in a previously undeveloped area that has Mello-Roos fees to pay for roads, sewer, libraries, schools, parks, etc.

Kettlepot,

As far as taxes I was looking at Zillow and they had 2008 taxes and most were in the 5-6k range for Rancho del oro in Oceanside. I was trying to find out if they pay mello roos but can't seem to find anything about that yet.

[geos]

Originally Posted by sfw1979

Kettlepot,

As far as taxes I was looking at Zillow and they had 2008 taxes and most were in the 5-6k range for Rancho del oro in Oceanside. I was trying to find out if they pay mello roos but can't seem to find anything about that yet.

Mello Roos taxes are property taxes ON TOP of property taxes??? Only in CA. I'm from NY so this is news to me. What other invisible taxes are there? School, water, air, anything else?

[dweej]

Originally Posted by geos

Mello Roos taxes are property taxes ON TOP of property taxes??? Only in CA. I'm from NY so this is news to me. What other invisible taxes are there? School, water, air, anything else?

Mello Roos are more common in your newer neighborhoods because of the property tax cap. We have very low property taxes in California because of legislation that was passed back in the 70's (I think?). Well, the low taxes weren't enough to pay for all services, specifically police and fire services to new neighborhoods. So to solve this "problem", many neighborhoods have to assess Mello Roos to cover the deficit between what the property taxes cover and the actual money they need. The good news (and there is some, I promise!) is that usually the mello roos expire after a certain amount of time and all you have to pay after that is the low property tax. I'm not clear on the exact details, but of course, you can always google mello roos and get more specific info. Hope this helps!