Will Houston's metro population ever catch up to or pass DFW's? (Dallas: transplants, universities)

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

I can see College Station eventually just with many of the high income individuals coming from College Station and the possibility of a rail stop within a short commute as well as the completion of the 290 expansion will lead to massive growth in Northern Waller County. Beaumont though I could never see at least this century. It’s a declining metropolis in Texas and not far from the Texas Triangle either. Beaumont would have to see the emergence of a completely new industry or Houston getting so expensive but still taking growth that Beaumont becomes a viable option for East Houston commuters. Texas Triangle like the nation is likely to slow in growth rate although it might still be getting a 100,000 a year as a snowball effect takes in, with this decline in growth I seriously doubt Beaumont would be able to take in much of that growth at all and in fact might decline even faster with lower growth rates.

Aren't the suburban area of Beaumont growing west along Hwy 90? I wonder will the region invest more in better drainage especially after the flooding in September?

[Mr. Clutch]

It's possible, but would take something economically to change between the two for a sustained time for that to happen. For the time being, the only situation in which I could see it would be an extended domestic recession at the same time as an international economic boom in key areas like South America, Asia, and the Middle East - basically the opposite of what we're seeing today.

Also agree with those that wouldn't be surprised to see College Station eventually added to the metro, though I don't see that happening for at least another 20 years.

[DabOnEm]

Houston has always been a domestic migrant hub when the energy industry as adding jobs. It was getting 50k+ annually earlier this decade. Because it did not have the diverse economy of DFW, the back office capital of America, it was not a consistent domestic magnet.

All it will take is one large non-energy company to decide to put operations in Houston and I think it'll take off from there. Houston won't be the metro for suburban campuses like DFW is. But what it can do is sell the urban side to one of these companies that may see Austin has a little too high or DFW a little too crowded/suburban-oriented and choose Houston. Amazon was a nice wake up call and the Rice-ION Center is the start of the tech diversification for Houston.

It'll be hard for Houston to pass DFW because it's already 600k larger and a very diverse economy, but Houston can start growing as fast as DFW is again and close the gap like it did in the 2000s (and it wasnt too long ago Houston was a larger metro than DFW).

[jd433]

I understand you point but why does Dallas and Houston need to be dependent upon established businesses relocating? This is actually a sad thing.
Are we not capable of generating our own start up businesses and grow off of that?
I say that we should focus on fostering a good start up scene and venture capital scene that is HOME GROWN! And not just focus on luring relocations and expansions. BTW Austin is beating out both places on that front.
In the long run the one who generates more will win. Just look at silicon valley, San Fran, Boston, New York Srattle etc. They are all start up factories . They are the primary markets. Dallas is just a secondary market who waits for the leaders to send them a bone.
Please tell me what BIG Home Grown plans does Dallas have? Houston is working on TMC-3 . That will be a bioscience research HUB, Houston is also building "THE ION"Which is supposed to be a start up incubator for tech companies.
In the end I would much rather see something that you built from the ground up than something you ste from another start-up HUB. That is mu h more impressive.

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Houston has always been a domestic migrant hub when the energy industry as adding jobs. It was getting 50k+ annually earlier this decade. Because it did not have the diverse economy of DFW, the back office capital of America, it was not a consistent domestic magnet.

All it will take is one large non-energy company to decide to put operations in Houston and I think it'll take off from there. Houston won't be the metro for suburban campuses like DFW is. But what it can do is sell the urban side to one of these companies that may see Austin has a little too high or DFW a little too crowded/suburban-oriented and choose Houston. Amazon was a nice wake up call and the Rice-ION Center is the start of the tech diversification for Houston.

It'll be hard for Houston to pass DFW because it's already 600k larger and a very diverse economy, but Houston can start growing as fast as DFW is again and close the gap like it did in the 2000s (and it wasnt too long ago Houston was a larger metro than DFW).

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Houston has always been a domestic migrant hub when the energy industry as adding jobs. It was getting 50k+ annually earlier this decade. Because it did not have the diverse economy of DFW, the back office capital of America, it was not a consistent domestic magnet.

All it will take is one large non-energy company to decide to put operations in Houston and I think it'll take off from there. Houston won't be the metro for suburban campuses like DFW is. But what it can do is sell the urban side to one of these companies that may see Austin has a little too high or DFW a little too crowded/suburban-oriented and choose Houston. Amazon was a nice wake up call and the Rice-ION Center is the start of the tech diversification for Houston.

It'll be hard for Houston to pass DFW because it's already 600k larger and a very diverse economy, but Houston can start growing as fast as DFW is again and close the gap like it did in the 2000s (and it wasnt too long ago Houston was a larger metro than DFW).

I found these population projections from American City Business Journals that does project Greater Houston to catch up and pass DFW by 2035. Just click the link then scroll to the bottom of the article to find the portal to their cloud database. It also has a link to their formulations.

The following database contains population projections by American City Business Journals (ACBJ) for 933 metropolitan and micropolitan areas across the country.
Projections are presented for five different intervals that begin in 2015. The shortest is five years (2015-2020), while the longest is a quarter-century (2015-2040).

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizjourn...sdatabase.html

[KoNgFooCj]

Originally Posted by kdogg817

Nope. There will likely always be 500-600 thousand gap between the two.

I think the gap could close possibly but the growth rates will continue to remain so similar that the gap will not fully close in our lifetimes. DFW could always pull further away too. No way to know what with economic and immigration changes.

[tcualum]

I doubt College Station would want to be absorbed by Houston. They seem happy having their own identity. I can't comment on Beaumont.

[KoNgFooCj]

Originally Posted by tcualum

I doubt College Station would want to be absorbed by Houston. They seem happy having their own identity. I can't comment on Beaumont.

I don't think it would change anything though. It's not like being annexed by Houston.

[dallasboi]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Houston has always been a domestic migrant hub when the energy industry as adding jobs. It was getting 50k+ annually earlier this decade. Because it did not have the diverse economy of DFW, the back office capital of America, it was not a consistent domestic magnet.

All it will take is one large non-energy company to decide to put operations in Houston and I think it'll take off from there. Houston won't be the metro for suburban campuses like DFW is. But what it can do is sell the urban side to one of these companies that may see Austin has a little too high or DFW a little too crowded/suburban-oriented and choose Houston. Amazon was a nice wake up call and the Rice-ION Center is the start of the tech diversification for Houston.

It'll be hard for Houston to pass DFW because it's already 600k larger and a very diverse economy, but Houston can start growing as fast as DFW is again and close the gap like it did in the 2000s (and it wasnt too long ago Houston was a larger metro than DFW).

......uhh..It's been like that as long as I can remember.

[Exult.Q36]

Originally Posted by dallasboi

......uhh..It's been like that as long as I can remember.

I know right. I’m just puzzled how Bryan/College Station a town in central Texas and a place an 1:30 minutes away from Houston will magically appear in Houston MSA. BCS has it own economic engine called Texas A&M University. On top of that Waller County is still vastly undeveloped.