Will Houston's metro population ever catch up to or pass DFW's? (Dallas: college, high income)

[brock2010]

Don't know if this has already been discussed, if so I apologize. Anyway, at the moment DFW has about a 500,000 lead over Houston as far as metro population is concerned. In the future do you think that gap will get smaller, close completely or widen even more?

[Exult.Q36]

Nope. There will likely always be 500-600 thousand gap between the two.

[jd433]

There are many variables but at the current rate of Dallas adding 20k-30k more people every year it's not likely. Of course the actual urban area is a different story. That number of 20k-30k is counting all of north Texas and part of south Oklahoma. It counts places that are well over 100 miles from Dallas.
The Urban area is a better comparison. In that case they are both very close at around 5.5 million.

[Mark Senior]

DFW has more open land area to grow. Houston is blocked to the South, the Gulf, and pretty much east, no one really wants to live that far East toward Beaumont. So, SW, W, NW, N, and NE, seem reasonable as the growth pattern. Actually north across to the west, will likely be the greatest growth, by far. IMHO.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

It might but not by trajectory. Houston has the possibility of absorbing College Station and the Golden Triangle which would put it over. But that wouldn’t be until a few more census.

[NigerianNightmare]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

It might but not by trajectory. Houston has the possibility of absorbing College Station and the Golden Triangle which would put it over. But that wouldn’t be until a few more census.

I can see College Station eventually just with many of the high income individuals coming from College Station and the possibility of a rail stop within a short commute as well as the completion of the 290 expansion will lead to massive growth in Northern Waller County. Beaumont though I could never see at least this century. It’s a declining metropolis in Texas and not far from the Texas Triangle either. Beaumont would have to see the emergence of a completely new industry or Houston getting so expensive but still taking growth that Beaumont becomes a viable option for East Houston commuters. Texas Triangle like the nation is likely to slow in growth rate although it might still be getting a 100,000 a year as a snowball effect takes in, with this decline in growth I seriously doubt Beaumont would be able to take in much of that growth at all and in fact might decline even faster with lower growth rates.

[Exult.Q36]

Originally Posted by jd433

There are many variables but at the current rate of Dallas adding 20k-30k more people every year it's not likely. Of course the actual urban area is a different story. That number of 20k-30k is counting all of north Texas and part of south Oklahoma. It counts places that are well over 100 miles from Dallas.
The Urban area is a better comparison. In that case they are both very close at around 5.5 million.

Durant Oklahoma is only counted in DFW CSA from what I researched.

[jd433]

True, with those distances Houston could add both College Station (280,000) and Beaumont (410,000) if you did that Houston metro would have the same population at about 8 000,000 and be growing just as fast. Heck from. Dallas to Caddo Oklahoma is 117 miles.even Waco is closer to Dallas. Yhat would add 270,000 people. Beaumont is 85 miles from houston and college station 90 miles. Austin is only 150 miles from Houston or if you in Katy its only 135 miles.

Originally Posted by kdogg817

Durant Oklahoma is only counted in DFW CSA from what I researched.

[Frustratedintelligence]

I think Houston needs an entirely new industry to really change the game. Otherwise I'm not seeing how Dfw won't always have the advantage.

Of course both places need to grow up rather than out. I truly hope College Station and Beaumont never become part of the Houston metro area

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Frustratedintelligence

Of course both places need to grow up rather than out. I truly hope College Station and Beaumont never become part of the Houston metro area

Im with you there. Thats why I prefer urban area as a measurement as opposed to MSA/CSA. I think its more reflective of the area.

But to the question, no. DFW is a much bigger magnet for domestic migrants and its economy is more diverse. I think the combo of those two will have bigger growth prospects.