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Perhaps my judgement in January was different because winter wasn't over. At this point, California is getting more rain likely transforming the rain to at least no worse than the last drought while the cold has continued and looked like it will keep on continuing for the next couple weeks.
I agree that circumstances have changed and so should one's judgment, but just recently you downplayed the significance of the rare cold, record snow, and record ice cover compared to the California drought. The combination of cold/snow/ice this winter (3rd coldest in CONUS) is at least as significant historically as the 2011-12 combination of lack of cold/lack of snow/lack of ice (4th warmest CONUS), which was played up as the biggest news story of that winter in the U.S. despite record snow and record cold in different (and smaller) parts of the country. This deserves similar treatment, and the lack of that demonstrates a bias and/or an agenda at work when it comes to judgments of newsworthiness.
That's not to say that the California drought isn't newsworthy, but downplaying the huge area of cold/snow/ice in relation to the drought, when it is at least as historically significant as 2011-12's lack of all that that was played up in relation to record cold/record snow in other parts of the country, is a fine demonstration of a bias where warm events are played up and long remembered and cold events are downplayed and forgotten as soon as possible.
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And didn't you say in a post a week or so ago that this winter wasn't cold enough for you?
If I lived in Miami and it was 50F every day of the winter it wouldn't be anywhere near cold enough for me, but it would still be a monumentally cold(er) winter. Similarly, my opinion about the weather doesn't change the historic significance of the cold/snowy weather, which has been record-breaking or in top 5 territory across a huge swath of the country. The point I was making was that even during the most severe winters on record in the Eastern U.S., this one included in that elite group, the intensity and persistence of winter weather is still weak outside of northern New England and the Upper Midwest.
At any rate, perhaps we can agree to disagree about which is the bigger story? Both of them are big stories, after all.
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Originally Posted by Cambium
The Polar Vortex is ALWAYS around I'm surprised how much attention its getting this year, last year it was displaced over Europe, this year over N.America.
I can't remember where I saw it, but last year I read a posting somewhere that essentially said that these severe winter regimes that park themselves over a certain continent for months on end have been popping up in other parts of the world (primarily Eurasia) over the past few years, and that one of these years one will park itself over North America and once that happens it will be a big surprise to Americans. Something like that is happening this winter, and Americans are getting a taste of what many in Eurasia were dealing with relative to normal in previous winters. Conversely, Eurasia is off the hook for the most part.
For winter 2014-15 the position of a severe winter regime (if one develops anywhere) will be critical to the outcome. It is also conceivable that a persistent very-cold pattern could develop in the summer in some portion of the hemisphere, although obviously it would be weaker than it would if such a thing occurred in the winter.
So Toronto's Pearson Airport broke their record of 81 days for longest continuous snow cover a couple days ago, and it looks like the snow cover will last for a while more. I'm not sure what the record is here in K-W, probably longer since winters are about 2C colder here. Our snow cover started at the same time as Toronto's, but we have quite a bit more snow on the ground, so I wouldn't be surprised if we broke our record too.
It also looks likely that we'll break the all time March low temps in a couple days, the record is -25.4C with a winchill record of -30.2C. They're forecasting -28C for Tuesday, so we could easily break both records. We've already broken the February low record (was -29.2C, got to -30.7C this year)... maybe we broke the windchill record too (-37.1C) since winds would have only needed to be 7km/h. We also broke the all time windchill record this January with -42C and came within a hair of breaking the all time low record. Any other records to break?
I agree that circumstances have changed and so should one's judgment, but just recently you downplayed the significance of the rare cold, record snow, and record ice cover compared to the California drought. The combination of cold/snow/ice this winter (3rd coldest in CONUS) is at least as significant historically as the 2011-12 combination of lack of cold/lack of snow/lack of ice (4th warmest CONUS), which was played up as the biggest news story of that winter in the U.S. despite record snow and record cold in different (and smaller) parts of the country. This deserves similar treatment, and the lack of that demonstrates a bias and/or an agenda at work when it comes to judgments of newsworthiness.
That's not to say that the California drought isn't newsworthy, but downplaying the huge area of cold/snow/ice in relation to the drought, when it is at least as historically significant as 2011-12's lack of all that that was played up in relation to record cold/record snow in other parts of the country, is a fine demonstration of a bias where warm events are played up and long remembered and cold events are downplayed and forgotten as soon as possible.
I hadn't checked February's numbers, and didn't really think of how cold the last month has been. It's not bias, it's just not careful attention. And final February and entire winter numbers are only out now.
As for media attention, at least in January, there was a ton of "polar vortex" coverage which felt a bit overhyped at the time, as if it were a new pattern that was unknown before. Lately there hasn't been, because mostly we've gotten well below average but not record-breaking cold as in early January. For me, January and February had the same average, but January was more variable, with more mild spells but also more extreme cold.
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If I lived in Miami and it was 50F every day of the winter it wouldn't be anywhere near cold enough for me, but it would still be a monumentally cold(er) winter. Similarly, my opinion about the weather doesn't change the historic significance of the cold/snowy weather, which has been record-breaking or in top 5 territory across a huge swath of the country. The point I was making was that even during the most severe winters on record in the Eastern U.S., this one included in that elite group, the intensity and persistence of winter weather is still weak outside of northern New England and the Upper Midwest.
Your standards for intense winter are much higher than mine, but IMO areas adjacent to northern New England and the upper Midwest got an intense winter. I'm only 30 miles from the technical border of northern New England. Places like NYC didn't as consistent of a winter, but I didn't claim it did, I was more thinking of places further north and definitely not further south, since I don't live there, and I presume neither do you.
A severe NYC winter is generally more impressive in the amount of snow rather the intensity of cold.
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At any rate, perhaps we can agree to disagree about which is the bigger story? Both of them are big stories, after all.
I may change my mind which is the bigger story, as I said. I wait for a few more weeks.
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For winter 2014-15 the position of a severe winter regime (if one develops anywhere) will be critical to the outcome. It is also conceivable that a persistent very-cold pattern could develop in the summer in some portion of the hemisphere, although obviously it would be weaker than it would if such a thing occurred in the winter.
Do cold patterns in the summer correlate with cold patterns in the following winter? In the other direction, winter 2008-2009 was rather cold and followed by a rather cold summer, especially early summer.
LOW TEMPERATURES for Wisconsin and Michigan for yesterday morning, February 28th.
Michigan:
Detroit, MI 0F
Lansing, MI -11F
Grand Rapids, MI -12F
Kalamazoo, MI -13F
Ann Arbor, MI -17F
Traverse City, MI -18F
Bad Axe, MI -20F
Big Rapids, MI -21F
Manistique, MI -23F
Alpena, MI -23F
Houghton, MI -25F
Cadillac, MI -26F
Ironwood, MI -26F
Escanaba, MI -26F
Cheboygan County, MI Airport -27F
Iron Mountain, MI -27F
NWS Marquette, MI -28F
Newberry, MI -28F
Houghton Lake, -29F
Gaylord, MI -29F
Grayling, MI -31F
Pellston, MI -33F
Wisconsin:
Manitowish Waters, WI -30F
Antigo, WI -30F
Tomahawk, WI -29F
Eagle River, WI -27F
Stevens Point, WI -27F
Phillips, WI -27F
Hayward, WI -26F
Rhinelander, WI -25F
Wautoma, WI -21F
Woodruff/Minocqua, WI -21F
Green Bay, WI -21F
Sparta, WI -20F
Shawano, WI -19F
Your standards for intense winter are much higher than mine, but IMO areas adjacent to northern New England and the upper Midwest got an intense winter. I'm only 30 miles from the technical border of northern New England.
My reference to "northern New England" was in reference to the northern half of New England that is above the 75% line in the map below. Spending a quarter to half of the whole winter above freezing really detracts from the winter experience and is pathetic if one wants wintry weather on a consistent dependable basis; even during a so-called brutal winter the cold is rather gentle in all but the most northerly regions of the Northeast.
Of course, the apex of the cold was in the Midwest, and here you see northern Illinois scoring a respectable 80+% of the winter below freezing, which is far in excess of the time they normally spend in winter mode. New England may have record-challenging snow, but even this winter it's been warm enough to melt it for a big chunk of the winter. This is the Midwest's year to shine - like New England they've had record-challenging snow, but unlike New England there's been a relative dearth of thaws and on an absolute basis thawing has been greatly kept in check.
What stands out to me is how the vast majority of the country was above freezing for more than a quarter of the time in winter, and this was one of the coldest on record. One impressive feature is how little thawing northern Minnesota and parts of the U.P. received, being above freezing less than 5% of the time, and another is how a portion of Chihuahua was below freezing for a fifth of the winter. While that's not much of a winter, it's a lot more cold than people associate with any part of Mexico.
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Do cold patterns in the summer correlate with cold patterns in the following winter? In the other direction, winter 2008-2009 was rather cold and followed by a rather cold summer, especially early summer.
I don't think they correlate, at least for the United States and southern Canada east of the Rockies. Using recent years as an example in terms of the very general pattern for that huge region:
2009: Cold summer followed by harsh winter
2010: Hot summer followed by harsh winter
2011: Hot summer followed by mild winter
2012: Hot summer followed by mild early/harsh late winter
2013: Cold summer followed by harsh winter
My reference to "northern New England" was in reference to the northern half of New England that is above the 75% line in the map below. Spending a quarter to half of the whole winter above freezing really detracts from the winter experience and is pathetic if one wants wintry weather on a consistent dependable basis; even during a so-called brutal winter the cold is rather gentle in all but the most northerly regions of the Northeast.
Of course, the apex of the cold was in the Midwest, and here you see northern Illinois scoring a respectable 80+% of the winter below freezing, which is far in excess of the time they normally spend in winter mode. New England may have record-challenging snow, but even this winter it's been warm enough to melt it for a big chunk of the winter. This is the Midwest's year to shine - like New England they've had record-challenging snow, but unlike New England there's been a relative dearth of thaws and on an absolute basis thawing has been greatly kept in check.
What stands out to me is how the vast majority of the country was above freezing for more than a quarter of the time in winter, and this was one of the coldest on record. One impressive feature is how little thawing northern Minnesota and parts of the U.P. received, being above freezing less than 5% of the time, and another is how a portion of Chihuahua was below freezing for a fifth of the winter. While that's not much of a winter, it's a lot more cold than people associate with any part of Mexico.
That's a great map, I'd like to see the months individually. The beginning of winter here wasn't that cold, plus December is warmer than the other two months normally. I think that's not the case in the Midwest, we get more of a lag here. I was really thinking of January-February, partially because December is typically milder but more so because it feels like a long time ago (and also because I was out of town most of the month).
One thing that statistic doesn't capture is variability. January and February had the same average but January was more variable, leading to more thaws but also more extreme cold. As someone who hates extreme cold, I personally found January the worse of the two months and felt colder, even though by % below freezing it was less. January was worse for persistent snow, though, but we didn't heavy snow till the end of the month.
New England hasn't had record challenging snow, I think other recent years have been snowier. I'll have to check.
The snow just keeps steadily falling. Snowfall: 346" (878 cm), current snow depth: 127" (322 cm). 34" (86 cm) since Friday.
What the hell you have 127 inches of snow right now? How can you even see the front door to your house?
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