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Finally a break in the bone dry pattern coming this weekend. Maybe even strong t-storms.
Quote:
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/
DISCUSSION...High pressure is over the southeast states at the
surface and aloft. A trough is over the Pacific Coast.
Through the next couple of day the ridge will continue east bound
and the trough will advance toward the plains. This will serve to
gradually break down the upper ridge locally and allow a few
showers and storms by Friday with a few streamer showers moving in
by the morning. Moisture will continue to increase for Saturday
with scattered showers and storms possible.
Saturday low pressure will develop on the lee of the Rockies and
move across the plains. This will increase winds locally and
provide support for severe weather in the plains. The surface low
will continue into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday and an
associated cold front will move into the northern gulf coast.
Ahead of the front the area will be fairly unstable and moist
which may allow for a few strong storms to develop along and ahead
of the front.
Early next week high pressure will build, however a secondary
front may move through by Tuesday. This will provide cool and dry
weather with lows in the 40s for 2 or 3 night, depending on
location.
Finally a break in the bone dry pattern coming this weekend. Maybe even strong t-storms.
Interesting setup happening. Finally some action west to east.
We have to wait 2 days after you to get that.
Heres what upton says. PWAT values near extreme for this time of yr thanks to the southerly flow.
. Hoping things play out right. Theres an upper level low as well but too soon for details on that
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
939 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017.
Clouds increase Monday into Monday night ahead of the next
frontal system. The next chance of rain showers arrives late
Monday night into Tuesday, when a deep upper level trough
approaches from the west.
The trough further deepens Tuesday along the Eastern Seaboard
with increasing meridional flow. This will give plentiful
moisture to a developing frontal system at the surface. The
frontal system will be approaching the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night with the region being in the warm sector to the
east of the low with strengthening southerly flow, thereby
increasing warm air advection. Precipitable water increases to
near 1.5 inches from the moisture advection. This is much above
normal for this time of year. According to OKX sounding climatology,
it would be above the 90th percentile. Some moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible.
The cold front moves across Wednesday morning, with a
substantial decrease in precipitable water thereafter to less
than 1 inch. The front slows down and is slow to depart away
from the region. The numerical forecast models show weak low
pressure development along it and the low approaching the region
mid into late next week, with rain shower chances continuing.
Temps at 9000'. Good way to see the air masses which will influence the surface temps
Thin red line is the freezing line..
Today
Next Wednesday afternoon.
The loop is most fascinating to watch. Still images suck sometimes.
Watch the cold air masses drop into the U.S and watch how sometimes it just clips the Northeast and sometimes dive down to the south. Also note the crazy cold airmass in Canada and Upper Mid West getting clipped multiple times
Watch the "L's" as well. (Storms and where they form and how they move)
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Forecast high today is 31.7°C, 0.6°C above average
Currently 22.2°C with a dewpoint of 6.7°C at 4am Pacific Time
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