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This is some ****... CAD led to big forecast busts... 70 instead of 75 yesterday and looks like 70 something instead of the original 80 today... then a turn to well below average. First freeze on the way friday!
Snow depth is measured once a day at a pre-designated time. Accumulation is a direct translation of the amount of snow that stayed on the ground at a controlled measuring location.
There was light snow when temperatures were between 35-40, and then it turned to rain, so snow didn't stick. At least that's how I understand this.
Hint..... They don't call it "KING EURO" for nothing. GFS now says its happening. So yeah, Euro showed the Arctic blast better than the GFS
Now............... who will win the speed????
Will it be sub freezing everywhere around here Friday morning like GFS says? OR, will we see temps drop during the daytime instead like Euro says??
Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017
The next system is quick to follow with again glancing impacts from
the GFS. The ECMWF is a bit further south. Slight chances were
included in the forecast for this system, which is Wednesday
afternoon exiting Thursday.
The arctic front will be knocking on the door Thursday. There are model differences with regard to timing, with some light
precipitation and clouds possible in any warm air advection aloft
ahead of the upper level trough.
The ECMWF is slower and therefore
has this precipitation Thursday night with the cold frontal passage
on Friday.
The GFS blasts the front through dry Thursday night.
Slight chances for precipitation have been included for Thursday
night.
If the precipitation and clouds do not materialize, or if the
GFS timing is correct, subfreezing temperatures will be possible by
sunrise for much of the area away from the coast.
Temperatures will fall off dramatically Friday. They will either
drop during the day if the front is slower like the ECMWF, or they
will be 10 degrees colder than forecast if the faster GFS timing
verifies. Either way this sets the stage for a widespread freeze Friday night. The entire area, including New York City, should go below freezing if this pattern plays out as expected.
Fair weather on Saturday with temperatures several degrees below
average, then a Pacific system approaches on Sunday. It is too far
out to totally buy off on the timing, so probabilities were kept at
40 or below. There could be a brief period of snow at the onset,
mainly away from the coasts, before the colder airmass is
displaced.
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