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A look at the temps at 5000' and upper height pattern this morning.. Jet stream buckling in central U.S and pushing east. Upper low over the south keeping them cool.
850mb temps over Louisiana 8C, I see some 40s in northern part of state this morning. Some 30s in Arkansas. Before me???
Anyway -- Last warm day here today then that hot dry ridge moves out. Goodbye 70s till Spring?
1st real snowstorm for the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites??? GFS map for Monday October 30th
Gonna be a chilly Trick Or Treating this year from Mid Atlantic to New England. Actually 50s in Georgia by 8pm Oct 31st might be chilly for the kids down there too.
I hope this doesn’t underperform like every rain event this summer/fall.
Speaking of summer, I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve worn a jacket since the beginning of it, and it’s now late October. Like we’re truly experiencing a full on coastal southern-style autumn. I love it.
I hope this doesn’t underperform like every rain event this summer/fall.
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They introduced the "T" word so heads up. Keep radar and twitter handy.
Strong Low Level Jet stream, no surprise they mentioned it.
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
738 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017
NWP guidance is in good agreement through Tue night. As strong
high pres over the western Atlantic continues to depart, vigorous
PAC shortwave/jet energy over the Central US this evening will
continue to the Gulf coast by Tuesday Night. The resultant
-3 to -4 standard deviation deep eastern US longwave trough will
then tilt towards the NE US for Midweek. with a full latitude
trough developing across the eastern US.
The associated frontal system will approach the region tonight, and then track very slowly across the region Tue/Tue night in
the longitudinally oriented steering flow. Trend with this
system has been slower based on the upper pattern and dprog/dt.
Low level moisture does begin to increase tonight, although with
dry midlevels only expect DZ. QPF fields for tonight appear
overdone with this. Moisture and forcing increases Tue as the
frontal system approaches, presenting the following potential
hazards Tue/Tue night:
Heavy Rain:The slow movement of the front, deep lift (potentially right rear of 150+ kt jet streak), weak instability, and interaction with an increasingly moist and tropical airmass (+3 to 4 std) signal potential for multiple bands of heavy rain as weak waves lift north along the front. Lower resolution
ensembles continue to range between 1 1/2 to 3 inches of rain. Higher res NAM is indicating the potential for a localized swath of 3-5 inches. This looks to be a credible threat based on
synoptic pattern, but location/timing is very much uncertain
based on front and frontal wave timing and location. Would also
like to see additional support of this in other hi-res models.
See hydrology section for associated flooding threat.
Strong Winds: The other potential hazard is for strong winds during
the Tue into Tue Night period as a 50-60 kt 950 hpa LLJ moves
overhead Tue afternoon into Tue night. NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings
indicating a 12-15 hr period of southerly winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with potential for any low topped convective line/s
ahead of the cold front being able to drag down localized 45-55
mph wind gusts to the surface. SPC has placed western portions
of the area in a slight risk with damaging wind gusts the main
threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
11:30am October 23rd . Warmer here than in New Orleans and its sunny there, cloudy here. lol
You can see why. Cold pool of air centered over TN/Western KY now. Flow aloft is from the NW down south and from the south here.
Lets grab the map in a few hours see how different it is in the afternoon.
Still pretty warm here as well. High yesterday was near a record (it hit 75°). But tomorrow's high is 58°, and Wednesday 47°! Rain/snow mix in the forecast this weekend also (Sundays high is 44°), which is pretty awesome. It's going to be such a sharp drop
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