Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Having the technology and being economically feasible are two completely different things. Living on Mars is a massive government investment with long term political commitments and not remotely financially sustainable.
Self driving cars is more along the lines of smartphones. At first they only appealed to the techy types and now even refugees in 3rd world countries use them. Once people realize they can commute to work and still get other things done while the car drives, it'll take off.
Right now the Level 2 technology we have only appeals to early adopters. Explaining to people they still have to touch the wheel every few seconds and second guess the technology all day just feels like extra work.
Most automakers are skipping Level 3 and going straight to Level 4 for a full hands off experience which will appeal to pretty much everybody. Even old curmudgeons will appreciate they don't have to have their kids drive them to the doctors appointment when they get up there in age.
The steering wheel will still be there for a long time, because people do like taking over control when they want and just delegating mundane driving task to the robot.
The equipment for a fully automated self-driving car costs about $250,000. That makes it economically feasible for probably less than 1% of the driving public. At best self-driving cars will be a very small niche market. Smart phones are affordable to most people, unlike self-driving cars.
You misunderstand my point. Eventually major roads will allow only autonomous vehicles, and driving for enjoyment will become something like horseback riding today, restricted to areas where it does not interfere with essential road traffic. Unless you're Amish or something.
"If you can find a $40K Corvette, buy it!"
Well if that's the case, none of us here will know it, because we will all be dead and gone. It'll take that long.
Not really. There are lots of freeways that have restrictions against vehicles that cannot maintain a reasonable speed. And horses and carriages are pretty well banned from all even though they were here first.
The practicality is that at some point a human driver will simply be unable to communicate well enough to participate in some road ways. At that point they will be banned from those road ways. It is inevitable though it may still be decades away.
There may however be some compromises on performance cars. Your Corvette can conform to advanced protocols while letting you control what is safe. So you can still feel in control as you race along with your hair blowing in the wind. The Corvette however will not let you do anything bad.
Huge difference between a horse and buggy and a car without cruise control.
Bottom line, autonomous vehicles are here and they will be the predominant car on the road someday. Older folks will never feel confident letting the car drive itself, young people today who will own them already trust technology implicitly. In the long run, no more speeders, no more tailgaters, no more road rage, no more drunk drivers, no more distracted drivers. Will there be exceptions? Of course, nothing is perfect, but when you go out on the road today there are thousands of drivers around you, and you have no idea of what they are going to do. Compare that to the airline industry, at one time pilots said they'd never trust a computerized plane, today the pilot is mostly there in case something goes wrong.
Yeah sure they will. Just like the promises in the 1950s that nuclear power would be too cheap to meter, and it would make life wonderful for everybody.
The equipment for a fully automated self-driving car costs about $250,000. That makes it economically feasible for probably less than 1% of the driving public. At best self-driving cars will be a very small niche market. Smart phones are affordable to most people, unlike self-driving cars.
No. Way off. The battle is to get it to a few thousand. Retrofit kits for trucks may start out at $100,000 but that is a different thing all together.
the only really troublesome component is the LIDAR and there is every indication it will get under a thousand and eventually to a few hundred.
the rest of it is just standard automotive sensors and processors and stuff which become cheaper and cheaper
This technology is very scary. Why give up to this? It's going to dumb everyone down and give more power away.
World wide, nearly 1.3 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.
From the CDC:
In 2015, 2,333 teens in the United States ages 16–19 were killed and 221,313 were treated in emergency departments for injuries suffered in motor vehicle crashes in 2014. That means that six teens ages 16–19 died every day from motor vehicle injuries.
In 2013, young people ages 15-19 represented only 7% of the U.S. population. However, they accounted for 11% ($10 billion) of the total costs of motor vehicle injuries.
In the USA, In 2014, more than 5,700 older adults were killed and more than 236,000 were treated in emergency departments for motor vehicle crash injuries. This amounts to 16 older adults killed and 648 injured in crashes on average every day.
These are the groups that need help the most and are least likely emotionally to accept that they are at risk.
Autonomous vehicles will help them.
Your point that it will reduce the skill levels of drivers is valid, but the skill level is already, apparently, very low in the young and the old.
The equipment for a fully automated self-driving car costs about $250,000. That makes it economically feasible for probably less than 1% of the driving public. At best self-driving cars will be a very small niche market. Smart phones are affordable to most people, unlike self-driving cars.
No. 50 years ago smart phones would cost a billion dollars.
Adaptive cruise used to be a $2000 option, just a few years later it's less than $1000. A fully loaded Tesla Model S has 90% of what's needed for level 4 automation and the entire car is less than $120k.
Adaptive cruise control with lane keeping assist and automatic braking is less than $1000 on a Civic.
I remember when the self parking feature was introduced what seems like a decade ago. I still have never seen anyone use it other than in a commercial.
Yeah sure they will. Just like the promises in the 1950s that nuclear power would be too cheap to meter, and it would make life wonderful for everybody.
It's important to distinguish between the near future and the hypothetical. The majority of automakers are investing a lot into fully automated cars by the early 2020's. That's less than 5 years and it's safe to say it's going to happen. How it will be used is strictly hypothetical and in the distant future but most likely every car will offer it as most offer adaptive cruise and lane keeping assist now. Once the software is developed, the only way to capitalize on it is to offer it on as many vehicles as possible to spread to the development cost. The hardware already exists.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Define "scary"?
