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Right. Think about all the people that hop in their automated vehicles, thousands of times a day, that are impaired in some way, thinking the car will get them home safetly. You think these people will be monitoring their ride home, to make corrections in an emergency. NO! Lots of Ifs and problems to sort out at the cost of lives. Not to mention the bad roads in this country that are getting worse. I dont look forward to seeing these on the road.
So you think it's better for someone to pass on the automation and drive drunk? Back in the day, the future of self driving cars involved huge infrastructure changes like burying wires in the roads, adding sensors to road junctions and traffic lights, etc. The current level of technology is producing completely autonomous vehicles using GPS, radar and laser ranging, next step is networking cars to one another. There will always be "ifs", that becomes riskier and more random when you have millions of unpredictable human factors. You mitigate as best you can, giving a machine a specific rule, it will comply, giving the same to a human is no guarantee.
I would not trust that a gps guided car would not drive me across a recently collapsed bridge.
It's interesting with so many way our computers and phones can screw up, that so many are so anxious to believe automation can drive our cars better than we can.
I would not trust that a gps guided car would not drive me across a recently collapsed bridge.
It's interesting with so many way our computers and phones can screw up, that so many are so anxious to believe automation can drive our cars better than we can.
Do you have a lot of those where you're from? Technology isn't infallible, but neither are people.
I would not trust that a gps guided car would not drive me across a recently collapsed bridge.
It's interesting with so many way our computers and phones can screw up, that so many are so anxious to believe automation can drive our cars better than we can.
We have all read about human operated vehicles slavishly following GPS directions over a cliff or to the wrong continent.
The autonomous vehicle will have many sensors and will communicate with other vehicles and sensor systems. You car will know to detour around sudden obstacles including morning traffic and road collapse.
"Invoking Third Law"
Last edited by Crashj007; 07-05-2017 at 01:37 PM..
I hope you're not serious. The "laws" a novelist wrote about decades ago has nothing to do with practical considerations of today's science and technology.
Science fiction explored many of the technological realities of today back in the first half of the 20th century. Asimov and other writers recognized that human/robot interaction would be a moral issue as well as a technical problem. As this thread has reviewed, there are many conundrums in this application of engineering. That is what Asimov and others wrote about.
He called them Laws, we call then algorithms. It was not obvious to scientists in 1942 that programming and hardware would be needed with robots to prevent injury to humans, that machines need to obey human input, and machines need to protect themselves from harm. It is now obvious that these principles need to be basic and included in the programming of autonomous vehicles and other machines.
EVs last much longer (500,000+ miles), have energy costs 3x lower(at residential electricity prices, fleet operators will probably be able to buy at industrial rates, so it'd be even lower) and have maintenance costs that are just a fraction of ICE vehicles(100 times less moving parts, no oil changes, less wear on brakes, etc.). Ride-hailing will cost *much* less in a EV so that's why fleets will use them.
Because of all this, using an autonomous EV will cost a fraction of owning your own car. It will even cost less than an old paid-off car (gas, insurance, maint.) in terms of cost per mile.
The reason OEMs of traditional individually-owned will disappear is because each autonomous car will be able to take ~10 regular cars off the road in terms of being able to satisfy demand. When fleets are growing by just a few million a year, that's taking 10's of millions of cars' worth of individual travelling capacity. 5 million a year (easily possibly by 2024)? 50 million cars worth. Used cars will drop in value, because people won't need them (supply and demand) and eventually the depreciation curve on individually owned ICE cars will be so steep that most people who want to buy new wont be able to because their trade-ins will be worth way less than before and finance companies will no longer loan them the money to do so.
Sales of new ICE cars will crash, to around nothing... "Toy" cars will probably be the only survivors (Sports cars, motorcycles, ATVs, etc. Individually owned commuter cars? dead. Rich people will probably even only lease their cars for a year or two then give them to premium ride-sharing services when they're done.
Let's be realistic. TCO is Total Cost of Ownership which is something fleet managers are keenly attuned to. Your 500k life span is unproven in real world, electricity costs are only including operation, not manufacture, and maintenance costs are lower unless you need a new battery. Total cost per mile is not even close to ICE power.
Urban areas may be willing to accept ride sharing and population density may help your model, but if you look at a map, there is a whole lotta 'Merica that is not urban, suburban, or even close. The death of the American auto industry has been bantered about since the birth of the American auto industry and yet last year was another record year for sales.
While you live in that wonderful bubble that believes the whole planet wants to save the Polar Bears, reduce congestion, and wear a man-bun, it just is not the reality we live in. Rousch superchargers, Dodge Hellcats, and many millions of pickup trucks and oversized SUV's continue to plug up the roads because people like them. Besides, until every single lying, cheating, back-stabbing snake of a politician in Washington, DC gives up their gas guzzling SUV, we can live fairly comfortably in the understanding that ICE powered automobiles are not going away in the USA.
Works the same way ABS, airbags, and now backup cameras. You can still drive antiques, but all new cars have to have this stuff.
In 40 or 50 years I would suggest you will not be able to drive a car manually, that antique will need to be retrofitted with driverless technology to take it on the road. If you want to take full advantage of what this technology is going to offer you will need to get human operated cars off the road.
For starters you would not need stop signs and red lights, streets and highways would no longer need lanes with specific directions of travel. The amount of traffic that can travel on existing infrastructure will explode and you'll get where you are going much faster with much more efficiency.
I would not trust that a gps guided car would not drive me across a recently collapsed bridge.
These cars have multiple systems on them many of which are redundant. They are not relying on just GPS and can operate without it in many circumstances.
Quote:
It's interesting with so many way our computers and phones can screw up,
Your computer and phone has to perform multiple tasks, operate multiple devices and may have code from multiple third parties. These cars have dedicated systems with one primary task and redundancy built in.
These cars have multiple systems on them many of which are redundant. They are not relying on just GPS and can operate without it in many circumstances.
Your computer and phone has to perform multiple tasks, operate multiple devices and may have code from multiple third parties. These cars have dedicated systems with one primary task and redundancy built in.
You think a motor vehicle operating on the road is LESS complicated than a phone?!?
You think a motor vehicle operating on the road is LESS complicated than a phone?!?
I'm presuming the post I was replying to was referencing computer crashes and things of that nature. As far as that goes yes it is far less complicated.
As one example about two or three years ago new drivers Nvidia released would cause FF to crash if you had video acceleration enabled on one specific video card that I happened to own. It's impossible to test for every combination of hardware and software there is.... They do not need to do that with these systems, they are dedicated.
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