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I don't have any arguments about the longevity of batteries, and the "future" market for it But regardless of battery design, the manufacturer has to pay for the materials and labor. Since the materials are expensive, putting all the cells and modules together adds to the total cost of the battery. These materials aren't getting any cheaper. This is a reality of what is taking place at the moment in the US. Salvaging EV's will take place, and so recycling at a large scale, but that's is the future.
Actually they definitely are getting cheaper. Not only is lithium about to get much cheaper due to the HUGE deposit we've started drawing from in California (essentially enough to cover the entire US EV needs for the forseeable future at ~600,000 tons annually) but battery chemistries are changing. CATL just started production of a sodium ion battery, built on the same manufacturing line as a lithium ion one, using MUCH cheaper and readily available sodium with almost exactly the same energy density as lithium. Tesla is supposed to start using that tech next year to bring costs down. Actually paying attention to what's going on in the battery industry would do wonders for a lot of naysayers here.
The OP's post was about a global tipping point and at the time of its posting was citing a 4.2% global new vehicle market share for 2020. Fast forward to June 2022 sales, and plugins were 16% of global new vehicle sales that month (June 2022). The US which is pretty middling when it comes to EV adoption apparently hit 6.1% new vehicle market share for BEVs alone (PHEV is probably lower) last month so with PHEVs is likely at anywhere from 7% to 9% of plugin new vehicle market share.
It also appears that EV's main constraining factor hasn't been demand, but instead on the supply side. Fortunately, the US has quite a few battery and EV production facilities either under construction or going through a large ramp up.
Actually they definitely are getting cheaper. Not only is lithium about to get much cheaper due to the HUGE deposit we've started drawing from in California (essentially enough to cover the entire US EV needs for the forseeable future at ~600,000 tons annually) but battery chemistries are changing. CATL just started production of a sodium ion battery, built on the same manufacturing line as a lithium ion one, using MUCH cheaper and readily available sodium with almost exactly the same energy density as lithium. Tesla is supposed to start using that tech next year to bring costs down. Actually paying attention to what's going on in the battery industry would do wonders for a lot of naysayers here.
That was a Mid-May report using data prior to that from one firm and they were basing it on the trajectory they had seen recently. However, those trajectories didn't last. The cost raise didn't keep going as they predicted.
Let's look at the main commodity prices for battery materials:
Nickel https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel
Peaked with a local maxima in March, then dropped, stabilized and continued to drop through May and is now about half of its March local maxima
So, thus far, and pretty immediately after making the predictions, they were wrong. What's more, even were prices to continued upwards, the main acting force on that is because of massive swellings of demand that is greater than expected--which would mean EVs moving past the tipping point and into widespread adoption even *faster* than anyone expected.
One nice note is that even with current day prices dropping from those local maxima, they're still above when it was announced that there were large firms who were able to get price competitiveness for materials produced from recycling even with the prices in late 2021.
So cvetter63 at the time of his posting is right, while what you posted was no longer true at at the time of your posting.
. I think that due to my mid-70s age, I will never purchase an EV. I probably bought my last car a couple years ago and it will last me. But I have been enthusiastic in support for EVs until recently.
A friend owns a Tesla as well as a hybrid and he has been much into the technology. He decided he would drive the Tesla on a short duration trip to Las Vegas, about 400 miles away. He was less than 100 miles on the road and got a flat tire. This is in the desert. Tesla does not supply a spare tire in their cars, probably in an effort to reduce the weight so he was stranded. Tesla's road service could not find anyone who would drive that far out into the desert (on an interstate highway) to deliver a spare. It would be over an hour before they admitted that they would not be able to find someone. The driver called AAA but they would only tow the car a couple miles for free and then charge a high rate to go farther --- a couple miles would not help. So, he called an acquaintance who also has a Tesla and has a spare tire and they agreed to drive out from the city with the spare tire. This was already going on three hours on the side of the road. The friend delivered the tire and they drove back into town, cancelling the trip to Las Vegas. Maybe someday the EV support systems will be adequate, but they are not at this point. Everything about the car was performing as expected but the flat tire could not be remedied by the driver and there was no organized means of getting the tire changed by a road service provider. There was a truck stop service center only a few miles away, but they couldn't help and didn't have the needed tire.
Like a mirage in the desert, the EV promise looks good from a distance, but the reality is that it just isn't there -- not yet. It is encouraging to learn about the technology advances, but the infrastructure and service support is lagging.
There need to be a bigger push for hybrid. Pure EV is not suitable for 80% of Americans until the infrastructure is available. I see 2-4 chargers per station, imagine suddenly 10 cars need charging?
We need PHEV more than EV. I see a lot more Teslas stranded on the road now than ever. You can't charge everywhere yet and the battery life just isn't enough yet.
. I think that due to my mid-70s age, I will never purchase an EV. I probably bought my last car a couple years ago and it will last me. But I have been enthusiastic in support for EVs until recently.
A friend owns a Tesla as well as a hybrid and he has been much into the technology. He decided he would drive the Tesla on a short duration trip to Las Vegas, about 400 miles away. He was less than 100 miles on the road and got a flat tire. This is in the desert. Tesla does not supply a spare tire in their cars, probably in an effort to reduce the weight so he was stranded. Tesla's road service could not find anyone who would drive that far out into the desert (on an interstate highway) to deliver a spare. It would be over an hour before they admitted that they would not be able to find someone. The driver called AAA but they would only tow the car a couple miles for free and then charge a high rate to go farther --- a couple miles would not help. So, he called an acquaintance who also has a Tesla and has a spare tire and they agreed to drive out from the city with the spare tire. This was already going on three hours on the side of the road. The friend delivered the tire and they drove back into town, cancelling the trip to Las Vegas. Maybe someday the EV support systems will be adequate, but they are not at this point. Everything about the car was performing as expected but the flat tire could not be remedied by the driver and there was no organized means of getting the tire changed by a road service provider. There was a truck stop service center only a few miles away, but they couldn't help and didn't have the needed tire.
Like a mirage in the desert, the EV promise looks good from a distance, but the reality is that it just isn't there -- not yet. It is encouraging to learn about the technology advances, but the infrastructure and service support is lagging.
You do realize that this whole situation was easily solvable by purchasing a spare tire right? I bought a full sized take-off from someone mounting custom rims. Any time I am traveling, it goes in the trunk. This is not a story of EV shortcomings.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Airborneguy
You do realize that this whole situation was easily solvable by purchasing a spare tire right? I bought a full sized take-off from someone mounting custom rims. Any time I am traveling, it goes in the trunk. This is not a story of EV shortcomings.
Good point, regardless of the vehicle, if there is no spare you should buy one if you intend to travel into an unpopulated area. When I bought my 1974 Nova in January it had no spare, so I bought a wheel and a tire though I'm not likely to drive it too far until finished restoring it.
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