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Will cheap used electric cars be available for first time drivers or those with low income? If so will it happen when batteries cost less than a $1000 to replace? Or will it have to be cheaper than a grand to replace when it comes to used vehicles?
Little question for you. Have you priced out a new replacement automatic transmission or warranted replacement engine for your gas powered car yet? I'd bet you'd be shocked at the cost (hint, it's WAY over $1000)
I was going to replace an automatic transmission in a 2006 VW Beetle in 2019 for a neighbor, and a good used one was $3500. The car was only worth $1500. Couldn't be rebuilt so the car was scrapped.
Price a replacement trans on ebay for a, say, 2014 Subaru. Is it under $1000? That's a nearly 10 year old basic car.
Little question for you. Have you priced out a new replacement automatic transmission or warranted replacement engine for your gas powered car yet? I'd bet you'd be shocked at the cost (hint, it's WAY over $1000)
I was going to replace an automatic transmission in a 2006 VW Beetle in 2019 for a neighbor, and a good used one was $3500. The car was only worth $1500. Couldn't be rebuilt so the car was scrapped.
Price a replacement trans on ebay for a, say, 2014 Subaru. Is it under $1000? That's a nearly 10 year old basic car.
Maybe I have been lucky? I have never had a manual nor an automatic transmission fail, and have been driving since the 60's. My 2001 Silverado shows somewhere around 213,000 drive miles on the odometer, but not the great number of hours of idling. Just keep in mind that EV drive units should be as least as reliable as ICE automobile automatic transmissions. The transmissions and engines of today are very reliable considering that most people on the roads aren't checking engine and transmission fluid levels each day, nor do they do the maintenance. These drivers rely on idiot gages, TPM sensor signals, and things like that, but not too long ago TPMS was not available in all vehicles, so the driver had to check tire air pressure
The present EV batteries cannot be much cheaper because the materials used for building them are expensive, and the building process is labor intensive. I imagine that the EV of the future will incorporate hybrid energy sources and smaller batteries. Since you seem to favor EV technology, keep an eye on the pinnacle of EV-making, Formula Electric race cars (FE). Those who favor ICE race cars, keep an eye on the F1 race cars this year.
Maybe I have been lucky? I have never had a manual nor an automatic transmission fail, and have been driving since the 60's.
Well, AAMCO and other trans shops aren't going out of business anytime soon due to the rarity of that occurring, right? And Jasper engines seems to be doing ok, as well, right? I'm thinking it's a lot more common out there in the real world than your personal experience is telling you.
Maybe I have been lucky? I have never had a manual nor an automatic transmission fail, and have been driving since the 60's. My 2001 Silverado shows somewhere around 213,000 drive miles on the odometer, but not the great number of hours of idling. Just keep in mind that EV drive units should be as least as reliable as ICE automobile automatic transmissions. The transmissions and engines of today are very reliable considering that most people on the roads aren't checking engine and transmission fluid levels each day, nor do they do the maintenance. These drivers rely on idiot gages, TPM sensor signals, and things like that, but not too long ago TPMS was not available in all vehicles, so the driver had to check tire air pressure
The present EV batteries cannot be much cheaper because the materials used for building them are expensive, and the building process is labor intensive. I imagine that the EV of the future will incorporate hybrid energy sources and smaller batteries. Since you seem to favor EV technology, keep an eye on the pinnacle of EV-making, Formula Electric race cars (FE). Those who favor ICE race cars, keep an eye on the F1 race cars this year.
213K miles on the odometer should be pretty easily handled by the vast majority of modern EVs for sale today given about 1,500 duty cycles before notable degradation and a median range above 250 miles. I do think there's a legitimate question about what happens for vehicles that have driven for a lot more than that. If this works similar to how ICE vehicles and hybrids have worked, then large volume of mass adoption means that salvaging parts from other vehicles of the same or similar powertrains then becomes realistic and affordable as does potentially having brand third party replacements/substitutions, including substitutions that can potentially make your vehicle perform even better than when new. That's essentially what happened with the Prius powertrain batteries. What happened there was that the sheer volume of them sold (both the Prius itself and vehicles that shared the Prius powertrain) meant that there were a lot of salvage parts available for "remanufactured" batteries be it modules or entire packs. Then the volume became so large that third party replacements that operate even better than the original became available such as this. You got that to some extent with the earlier Leaf already as they sold in okay, though not massive numbers, and they unfortunately did not have an active battery thermal management system so they degraded faster (plus they had limited range so you didn't get too far before you were well past 1,500 duty cycles). That being said, the sheer volume was at least enough for there to be a pretty active salvage market for battery modules / packs, and you had people getting gen 2 Nissan Leaf packs for gen 1 Nissan Leaf vehicles which meant massive improvements in performance and range.
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: The present EV batteries cannot be much cheaper because the materials used for building them are expensive, and the building process is labor intensive. I imagine that the EV of the future will incorporate hybrid energy sources and smaller batteries. Since you seem to favor EV technology, keep an eye on the pinnacle of EV-making, Formula Electric race cars (FE). Those who favor ICE race cars, keep an eye on the F1 race cars this year.
There is considerable progress on battery cost per unit of energy storage, and this evolution is by no means finished. "The smart design, NCMA chemistry, and vertically integrated manufacturing have dropped pack-level costs to near $100/kWh—one-tenth that of the 2010 Chevy Volt. This is crucial to making Ultium products profitable." https://www.motortrend.com/news/gm-u...ogy-explained/
Well, AAMCO and other trans shops aren't going out of business anytime soon due to the rarity of that occurring, right? And Jasper engines seems to be doing ok, as well, right? I'm thinking it's a lot more common out there in the real world than your personal experience is telling you.
Well, experience or not I can only assume that a BEV drive unit should be at least as reliable than an automatic transmission of today.
Well, experience or not I can only assume that a BEV drive unit should be at least as reliable than an automatic transmission of today.
That's a pretty safe assumption. It may also be a safe assumption that on average the recently released EVs of today going to be, though time will have to tell, more reliable than the recently released ICE powertrains of today. They'll also generally need far less routine maintenance.
There is considerable progress on battery cost per unit of energy storage, and this evolution is by no means finished. "The smart design, NCMA chemistry, and vertically integrated manufacturing have dropped pack-level costs to near $100/kWh—one-tenth that of the 2010 Chevy Volt. This is crucial to making Ultium products profitable." https://www.motortrend.com/news/gm-u...ogy-explained/
Yea, and that bit about materials cost RayAK is mentioning indicates a lack of understanding of just how much in expensive raw materials are in there.
The really nice thing though about these platforms is that it means lots of vehicles having shared powertrain, including battery, parts. That means a lot of potential scavenging for repairs and a potentially very robust market for third party replacements.
213K miles on the odometer should be pretty easily handled by the vast majority of modern EVs for sale today given about 1,500 duty cycles before notable degradation and a median range above 250 miles. I do think there's a legitimate question about what happens for vehicles that have driven for a lot more than that. If this works similar to how ICE vehicles and hybrids have worked, then large volume of mass adoption means that salvaging parts from other vehicles of the same or similar powertrains then becomes realistic and affordable as does potentially having brand third party replacements/substitutions, including substitutions that can potentially make your vehicle perform even better than when new. That's essentially what happened with the Prius powertrain batteries. What happened there was that the sheer volume of them sold (both the Prius itself and vehicles that shared the Prius powertrain) meant that there were a lot of salvage parts available for "remanufactured" batteries be it modules or entire packs. Then the volume became so large that third party replacements that operate even better than the original became available such as this. You got that to some extent with the earlier Leaf already as they sold in okay, though not massive numbers, and they unfortunately did not have an active battery thermal management system so they degraded faster (plus they had limited range so you didn't get too far before you were well past 1,500 duty cycles). That being said, the sheer volume was at least enough for there to be a pretty active salvage market for battery modules / packs, and you had people getting gen 2 Nissan Leaf packs for gen 1 Nissan Leaf vehicles which meant massive improvements in performance and range.
I don't have any arguments about the longevity of batteries, and the "future" market for it But regardless of battery design, the manufacturer has to pay for the materials and labor. Since the materials are expensive, putting all the cells and modules together adds to the total cost of the battery. These materials aren't getting any cheaper. This is a reality of what is taking place at the moment in the US. Salvaging EV's will take place, and so recycling at a large scale, but that's is the future.
There is considerable progress on battery cost per unit of energy storage, and this evolution is by no means finished. "The smart design, NCMA chemistry, and vertically integrated manufacturing have dropped pack-level costs to near $100/kWh—one-tenth that of the 2010 Chevy Volt. This is crucial to making Ultium products profitable." https://www.motortrend.com/news/gm-u...ogy-explained/
All that sounds good, and I have no reasons not to believe it. And all the new technologies and processes used for building batteries by GM are good for the shareholders or investors. But this is an idea for a future to come. You cannot "just" buy such a new battery at a discount, because the cost for research development for every new product becomes greater each day depending on market fluctuations.
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