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Here's the metric I wish were on the window sticker of new cars - a way to compare the distance you can travel on $5 of gasoline vs. the distance you can travel on $5 of electricity. Ideally, there would be such comparisons: city, highway, and combined.
So, for example, at a price point of $5 per gallon of gasoline, a vehicle that gets 20 mpg obviously could travel 20 miles on $5 of gasoline. As the price of gasoline varies up & down from $5, the distance the vehicle can travel also varies.
How far could a plug-in all electric vehicle travel on $5 of electricity at differing price point per kWh ?
I hope my question makes sense.
This is just one partial metric.
One also needs to consider the total ownership cost of car A vs. car B.
Say car A costs $20,000 more upfront than car B.
At $4/gal (today average in my state), a person can drive car B for over 125,000 miles for "free" (considering 25mpg which is average for new sedans & SUVs) before comparing the MPG between the cars.
This is just one partial metric.
One also needs to consider the total ownership cost of car A vs. car B.
Say car A costs $20,000 more upfront than car B.
At $4/gal (today average in my state), a person can drive car B for over 125,000 miles for "free" (considering 25mpg which is average for new sedans & SUVs) before comparing the MPG between the cars.
Right, and since EVs these days aren't generally $20,000 more than their closest ICE competitor, the EV for a lot of situations win out in total cost of ownership. In some segments, notably premium ones, but with some notable entry segments like the Bolt, the purchase price is at about parity. The premium segment is interesting as that also often means lower fuel economy for the ICE vehicle and the use of more expensive premium gas, so the difference cuts even deeper which likely goes some way towards why Tesla's vehicles do so well in the segments they compete in especially the Model 3 and Model Y (though note that I think it's ridiculous when people compare the Model S to a S-Class or 7-Series--it's much more in the realm of an AMG E-Class or M5). This is a far cry from what we saw about a decade ago, when there was an incredibly large purchase price differences along with other issues in terms of fast charging and total range. All in all, it's looking mighty likely that EVs are going to be taking over a massive segment of new vehicle sales over the course of this decade.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-19-2022 at 01:49 PM..
This is just one partial metric.
One also needs to consider the total ownership cost of car A vs. car B.
Say car A costs $20,000 more upfront than car B.
At $4/gal (today average in my state), a person can drive car B for over 125,000 miles for "free" (considering 25mpg which is average for new sedans & SUVs) before comparing the MPG between the cars.
While total cost of ownership is of course a very valuable metric, I also find the marginal cost of ownership to be interesting. The purchase price, once you own the vehicle, is a sunk cost. It is the marginal cost of ownership that affects actual vehicle use.
Before anyone gets too emotionally tied into their opinions, maybe they should check out this 52 minute lecture by the head of the engine tech dept of the UW School of Engineering. It summarizes many points often incorrectly stated about advantages and disadvsantages of both BEVs & ICEs...Her conclusion is that the future will be best served by combining the advantages of the two in hybrids-- electrified cars, not electric cars, as she puts it.
Before anyone gets too emotionally tied into their opinions, maybe they should check out this 52 minute lecture by the head of the engine tech dept of the UW School of Engineering. It summarizes many points often incorrectly stated about advantages and disadvsantages of both BEVs & ICEs...Her conclusion is that the future will be best served by combining the advantages of the two in hybrids-- electrified cars, not electric cars, as she puts it.
I think one thing to consider is that the industry doesn't turn on a dime since it takes years to get the plants tooled up and ready to start production. The thing is, that's exactly what's been happening over the last several years: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...v-plant-plans/
There are a lot of battery production plants under way and soon to debut if they haven't already. There are also EV production plants either wholly new or converted from ICE production plants. EVs as with vehicles in general, have been having some supply issues, but as those supply chain issues get resolved, they'll be getting resolved in an environment with a lot more EV production capacity.
I do wonder though about the affects on gas prices mass adoption on a global level will have. One of the driving forces behind switching to EV is gas prices and every single mile driven with an EV in lieu of a mile driven by an ICE vehicle is a little less supply used. Now, of course, that's certainly not the only advantage of EVs and part of the EV advantage isn't just in commodity price of gas but also in how EVs are far more efficient, but I imagine it'd have to have some effect on gas prices over the course of this decade.
I've been looking at the Cadillac Lyriq lately and I'm liking where GM is going with Cadillac. At the very least, going with actual vehicle names rather than an alphabet soup is to my preference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkZKGUVwRaA
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-19-2022 at 02:36 PM..
Right, and since EVs these days aren't generally $20,000 more than their closest ICE competitor, the EV for a lot of situations win out in total cost of ownership. In some segments, notably premium ones, but with some notable entry segments like the Bolt, the purchase price is at about parity. The premium segment is interesting as that also often means lower fuel economy for the ICE vehicle and the use of more expensive premium gas, so the difference cuts even deeper which likely goes some way towards why Tesla's vehicles do so well in the segments they compete in especially the Model 3 and Model Y (though note that I think it's ridiculous when people compare the Model S to a S-Class or 7-Series--it's much more in the realm of an AMG E-Class or M5). This is a far cry from what we saw about a decade ago, when there was an incredibly large purchase price differences along with other issues in terms of fast charging and total range. All in all, it's looking mighty likely that EVs are going to be taking over a massive segment of new vehicle sales over the course of this decade.
Tesla's range about $5k - $8k more expensive than competing ICE vehicles
The Hyundai Ioniq 5 / Kia EV6 is a about $10k - $15k more expensive than competing ICE vehicles in its league
2023 Chevy Bolt is on target but has the weakest charging capacity of all the EV's except the Mini Cooper SE.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler
I do wonder though about the affects on gas prices mass adoption on a global level will have. One of the driving forces behind switching to EV is gas prices and every single mile driven with an EV in lieu of a mile driven by an ICE vehicle is a little less supply used. Now, of course, that's certainly not the only advantage of EVs and part of the EV advantage isn't just in commodity price of gas but also in how EVs are far more efficient, but I imagine it'd have to have some effect on gas prices over the course of this decade.
My personal opinion on what will happen:
Oil companies do not exist to provide us cheap gasoline, they exist to make a profit. fuel prices reflect what makes most beneficial sense to make a profit for their sake, either an over-supply (cheap fuel) or a lack of supply (expensive fuel)... ...
The change will be symmetrical because alot of countries are mandating all new vehicles be EV by 2030, and some countries are even mandating this for used vehicles sold on the market as well. So what is happening is not just a shift in the market, but a case where many drivers across the globe are going to have to electrify in the future which will put a major dent in fuel demand, which is as you expected, but what does this mean for oil companies? Less demand for gasoline in the long term future. That along with other green policies which will cut demand for carbon based fuels which will over all reduce the dependency on oil. That initially sounds good in terms of supply, right? Not.. ..quite.. ..Oil companies see the writing on the wall for the demand of oil with the transition to green energy. Companies such as Shell and BP are already investing heavily into charging infrastructure to make up for the gap (See NewMotion, Ubitricity, Greenlots, BYD (partnered with Shell) ect... They must 'support' the shift to electrification, or they will starve.. ..and the time to do that is now.. So what do all industries who move on to the latest and greatest product do to the legacy product?
E
O
L
...That's whats going to happen to gasoline in the future. It will still be present but it will no longer be their major focus. There won't be enough profit to justify mass production.. ..so supply will be trimmed enough to make marginal profits, but not abundant enough to provide affordability.
Last edited by Need4Camaro; 07-19-2022 at 03:31 PM..
Oil companies do not exist to provide us cheap gasoline, they exist to make a profit. fuel prices reflect what makes most beneficial sense to make a profit for their sake, either an over-supply (cheap fuel) or a lack of supply (expensive fuel)... ...
The change will be symmetrical because alot of countries are mandating all new vehicles be EV by 2030, and some countries are even mandating this for used vehicles sold in the market. So what is happening is not just a shift in the market, but a case where many drivers across the globe are going to have to electrify in the future which will put a major dent in fuel demand, which is as you expected, but what does this mean for oil companies? Less demand for gasoline in the long term future. That along with other green policies which will cut demand for carbon based fuels which will over all reduce the dependency on oil. That initially sounds good in terms of supply, right? Not.. ..quite.. ..Oil companies see the writing on the wall for the demand of oil with the transition to green energy. Companies such as Shell and BP are already investing heavily into charging infrastructure to make up for the gap (See NewMotion, Ubitricity, Greenlots, BYD (partnered with Shell) ect... They must 'support' the shift to electrification, or they will starve.. ..and the time to do that is now.. So what do all industries who move on to the latest and greatest product do to the legacy product?
E
O
L
...That's whats going to happen to gasoline in the future. It will still be present but it will no longer be their major focus. There won't be enough profit to justify mass production.. ..so supply will be trimmed enough to make marginal profits, but not abundant enough to provide affordability.
Yea, I can see that happening as well. If that's where it's headed, then it'd probably be lower margin producers, like the tar sand producers, will drop out first and that supply will continually adjust as more and more producers drop out. However, I feel like there's probably some limit to that if the drop is fast enough where there's still a lot of existing production capacity of cheaper production cost fuels. It's definitely not going to be an easy linear relationship though.
I also think one thing that we'll be seeing is somewhat greater depreciation on ICE vehicles that are not collectibles as well as gas stations continue their drop in ubiquity from their mid 90s peak.
I think if I were in the market for a new vehicle, then I'd opt for a full BEV if there's a pathway to home charging and a conventional hybrid if not. Otherwise, you're probably just asking for it.
Before anyone gets too emotionally tied into their opinions, maybe they should check out this 52 minute lecture by the head of the engine tech dept of the UW School of Engineering. It summarizes many points often incorrectly stated about advantages and disadvantages of both BEVs & ICEs...Her conclusion is that the future will be best served by combining the advantages of the two in hybrids-- electrified cars, not electric cars, as she puts it.
I think it is a little late to tell people not to get too emotional about their attitudes toward electric vehicles. That ship sailed when politicians started adding their input and putting new laws into place...
I do believe that a hybrid system is ideal, for most people.
Before anyone gets too emotionally tied into their opinions, maybe they should check out this 52 minute lecture by the head of the engine tech dept of the UW School of Engineering. It summarizes many points often incorrectly stated about advantages and disadvsantages of both BEVs & ICEs...Her conclusion is that the future will be best served by combining the advantages of the two in hybrids-- electrified cars, not electric cars, as she puts it.
I am watching. She is well-qualified. However, at about 25:00, she says that more than 70% of our electricity comes from fossil fuels. According to the Energy Information Administration, in 2021, about 61% of the electricity consumed in the United States, was produced using fossil fuels. I don't know if she's using outdated figures, or if the self-professed "engine hugger" is skewing things on purpose, but her numbers make EVs look worse than they are... https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
...continuing to watch...
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