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Considering the Fisker Ocean EV at the moment. A friend of a friend just reserved one and that got me to looking at it. Any thoughts from people who know anything about Fisker, or the manufacturing partner, Magna? Scheduled to hit the market this fall for the higher priced versions.
Whether factual or perceived, range anxiety is real. With the ICE which people are used to, you have a pretty steady, well known range based on the mileage for highway driving, and wherever you go there are plenty of gas stations the entire way. The availability of charging is unknown, and people are skeptical, hearing about cut cables and other malfunctioning chargers. The ICE vehicle MPG is not noticeably affected by the use of AC or heater, unlike the EV.
When you talk about "knowing your range, understanding where to fuel and when" you are correct, and that's why many are hesitant, they don't know those things for EVs, and therefore fear getting stuck.
An update on sales. In Q2 of 2022, BEVs were 5.6% of new vehicle sales with 66.6% of total year over year growth and Q2 of last year BEVs were at 2.7% new vehicle market share. It's an odd market as supply chain constraints have hit all types of vehicles regardless of powertrain, so it's hard to know how that'll shake out. PHEVs are unfortunately clumped in with conventional hybrids, but I think a baseline estimate of 1% is a pretty good conservative estimate given that the most popular PHEV (Jeep Wrangler 4xe) sold about 10K units. This would put plugins (BEVS + PHEVs) at about parity with conventional hybrids.
I've been guessing for the last several years that we'll hit double digit plugin new vehicle market share by some point in 2023 and that's thus far looking like it'll hold.
Call me skeptical.....the insane price of most EVs, too long to recharge, range issues.
Lot more work to be done, maybe some day, maybe.
It's a lot more like the insane price of most new vehicles in the US. Automakers have been dropping their cheapest vehicles in the US for years now and that's been regardless of powertrain type. In other markets like those in some parts of Europe and in China have more affordable vehicles with China, thanks to their deal on LFP patents, having just about reached purchase price parity even on the more affordable part of the market. The too long to recharge and range are different, but related issues. Usually having a large capacity battery, which would yield range, also generally corresponds with faster charge times. These metrics have been improving the fastest. Recall that the original Nissan Leaf released not so long ago was a small vehicle that had a MSRP equivalent to a BMW 3-Series at the time and a 24 kWh battery pack with 73 miles of estimated range and charged in the single digits per kWh--that equivalent price point gets you upwards of 250 miles of range now and can add more miles than a Nissan Leaf had total range in about five minutes.
I think generally what will happen is that the premium market (this is 10% of the US vehicle market, though note that this is by badge not by actual price as you can load up a Ford F-150 to pretty high costs) is obviously moving there fastest and so will just more expensive parts of the non-premium segments. That should cover the 10% pretty easily and that basically funds expansions into other less premium segments. Of course, there are exceptions to this like the Chevrolet Bolt which for someone who has a pathway to charging at home is arguably the best vehicle in its pretty affordable market segment.
That next part to get to 50% should be pretty straightforward as that would be the percent of vehicle owning households that have a pathway to home charging which greatly reduces the issues of recharge and range as most days you'll wake up to a pretty full "tank" with a lot of range to spare. After that it gets dicier because it'll then be people who must rely on charging in other situations, but I'm not expecting that 50% new vehicle market share until some point in 2028 at the earliest and by that point the current crop of vehicles/platforms will have gone through at least one if not two vehicle generations and improvements.
Call me skeptical.....the insane price of most EVs, too long to recharge, range issues.
Lot more work to be done, maybe some day, maybe.
That is a lot of bad info
- the Tesla Model 3 is about the same price as it's counterparts, the BMW 3 series, Audi A4 or MB C class and much cheaper if look at total cost to own.
- well over 98% of driving is local (DOT data) so almost all EV charging is done while you sleep so actually for most takes less time than getting gas.
- on the longer trips, charging is 15-25 minutes so barely longer than would take to fill up and use the facilities - if you get food, not any longer.
- what "range issues" - most EVs can do well over 300 miles and there are many chargers.
What you get is a vehicle that can out accelerate most cars or SUVs and cost to fill that is a fraction of what you pay for gas. It costs me under $10 to fill my Model X, done at night - the equivalent in a gas vehicle would be over $60 if waited in line at Costco.
Try using real info, not what you heard about EVs from 5 years ago. It is the ICE that have some catching up to do, their only real advantage is quick fill up on longer trips that is less than 2% of normal use and that is disappearing very quickly.
Call me skeptical.....the insane price of most EVs, too long to recharge, range issues.
Lot more work to be done, maybe some day, maybe.
I think the price thing is a wash. Pretty much all vehicles are expensive now. I think charge time is a big factor as well as the infrastructure to support it. Range...that is subjective. What works for some , won't work for me. For my wife , not a big issue, she might only need to charge once a week. For me, my truck sits 90% of the time, when I use it though, it's generally a 250 to 300 mile trip, towing to our rural cabin. And stopping every 80 miles for a little boost to get me the next 80 miles isn't going to cut it.
EV's will be adopted by the masses when the transition to them is seamless.
I think the price thing is a wash. Pretty much all vehicles are expensive now. I think charge time is a big factor as well as the infrastructure to support it. Range...that is subjective. What works for some , won't work for me. For my wife , not a big issue, she might only need to charge once a week. For me, my truck sits 90% of the time, when I use it though, it's generally a 250 to 300 mile trip, towing to our rural cabin. And stopping every 80 miles for a little boost to get me the next 80 miles isn't going to cut it.
EV's will be adopted by the masses when the transition to them is seamless.
Yea, it makes a lot of sense to break it down on a use case basis. I think a lot more people are towards your wife's use case than they are towards yours is for the occasional towing. A lot of households have multiple vehicles, too, and so it can make sense to have one that's of one powertrain and then one of another as different tools for different purposes. I do think that by the end of the decade though, you'll probably be able to do that tow trip with a max of one short charging stop each way provided you have charging at your destination for coming back.
I think the price thing is a wash. Pretty much all vehicles are expensive now. I think charge time is a big factor as well as the infrastructure to support it. Range...that is subjective. What works for some , won't work for me. For my wife , not a big issue, she might only need to charge once a week. For me, my truck sits 90% of the time, when I use it though, it's generally a 250 to 300 mile trip, towing to our rural cabin. And stopping every 80 miles for a little boost to get me the next 80 miles isn't going to cut it.
EV's will be adopted by the masses when the transition to them is seamless.
That seamless will be a ways out, if it ever gets there. They're just too expensive, for the range you get. Figure whatever your range is, 80% of that is your actual range. You shouldnt take it below that, or rapid charge to often. Charging as you drive is the only way I would even consider buying one. Wait until the Chinese EV's start showing up. Cheaper in more ways than one. The Walmart of vehicles.
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