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It is amazing that some people think the EV will be soon reaching the tipping point. Truth is that the most popular vehicles in the USA is not even a car. It is a pickup or SUV and auto sales are falling rapidly.
Don't know much about electricity do you? That's okay, those dang "left coast" engineers do and they have the issues figured out. Existing lines will mostly be sufficient. We can upgrade the few that will need it. We will need to upgrade transformers and add some more generation sources, but this is much less work compared to drilling oil, running refineries and distributing liquid gasoline.
1. Liquid gasoline that starts out of the ground already energized in its base form. Yea even stored readily energized in its refined form. Transported anywhere you can roll a container.
2. American use about 400 million gallons of gasoline per day, mostly for cars. A gallon of gas is equivalent to about 33.56 kWh for an EV.
The U.S. consumes about 10,958,904,110 kWh of electricity per day. If--liberally--200 million gallons was replaced by EV, that's about 6.7 billion kWh that needs to be newly distributed throughout the U.S. wherever EV occurs. Maybe 61 percent of the existing capacity needs to be added...everywhere.
3. And what about that last mile--where all the cars are parked? Which is everywhere.
Nobody wants to stand around waiting at least 15 or 20 minutes far away from home to recharge something. Then there's driveways--even streets in urban areas--full of extension cords nationwide if they're not buried.
The capacity addition for even a small fraction of the above cannot be economically viable.
Last edited by countysquare; 02-11-2021 at 12:40 AM..
1. Liquid gasoline that starts out of the ground already energized in its base form. Yea even stored readily energized in its refined form. Transported anywhere you can roll a container.
2. American use about 400 million gallons of gasoline per day, mostly for cars. A gallon of gas is equivalent to about 33.56 kWh for an EV.
The U.S. consumes about 10,958,904,110 kWh of electricity per day. If--liberally--200 million gallons was replaced by EV, that's about 6.7 billion kWh that needs to be newly distributed throughout the U.S. wherever EV occurs. Maybe 61 percent of the existing capacity needs to be added...everywhere.
3. And what about that last mile--where all the cars are parked? Which is everywhere.
Nobody wants to stand around waiting at least 15 or 20 minutes far away from home to recharge something. Then there's driveways--even streets in urban areas--full of extension cords nationwide if they're not buried.
The capacity addition for even a small fraction of the above cannot be economically viable.
1. Electrical utilities are almost everywhere you find people. Transmission lines in the US go almost wherever there is human settlement and goes even straight into some people's homes and businesses whereas that's not often the case with gasoline or diesel. The price of movement of electricity is quite cheap and fast. Not only that, but there are multiple pathways for conversion of other energy sources into electricity and through multiple processes that are tried and true and commercially viable in many situations. This is not as true with conversion of other energy sources into fuel for internal combustion engines though there have been and continue to be many ongoing attempts.
2. A gallon of gas has that much energy potential, but ICE vehicles are generally in the 15-30% efficiency range in converting that to usable work with the vast majority of vehicles converting that to waste heat for most of the duration. EVs are on average about 3 to 4 times as efficient as ICE vehicles right now from wall to wheel, so you're looking at something like 2 billion kWh of electricity consumption if this were to happen overnight though not necessarily added capacity. Why not necessarily as much in added capacity? Because power plants don't necessarily generate at capacity all the time. Whether or not there will be a clever way to shift time of use somehow is up in the air as to how effective that would be, but it is a possible strategy in addition to having efficiencies elsewhere in consumption and adding generation capacity.
Now, of course, few believe this is something that will happen overnight. After all, the median age of vehicles in the US is nearing 12 years old and we're still in single-digit EV new vehicle market share, so it's going to take at least a decade for there to be a significant ramp up in electricity consumption due to EVs. Another thing to realize is that while electricity consumption has essentially flatlined for decades, prior to that the US electricity generation sector has had a relatively easy time keeping up with pretty high rates of growth in the decades prior. Not only that, but there are several countries that have adopted EVs en masse earlier and much more rapidly and they do not seem to be having generation issues related to EV electricity consumption.
3. What about the last mile? Most people in the US can charge at home when parked and some can charge when parked at work/school. For a lot of people, that means fewer number of trips to refuel no matter what the source. Is there no attraction to being able to refuel at home and almost never having to refuel elsewhere or starting off most days with a pretty full tank? How unhappy are you about the several minutes for refueling a car with gas or diesel? That is usually the only option people have since they don't usually get fuel delivery to their homes or where they park their vehicles. Now what happens when EVs at fast chargers are capable of refueling the same number of miles per minute (or even more) than today's ICE vehicles at a station?
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-11-2021 at 08:39 AM..
It is amazing that some people think the EV will be soon reaching the tipping point. Truth is that the most popular vehicles in the USA is not even a car. It is a pickup or SUV and auto sales are falling rapidly.
So? EV SUVs already exist - Tesla has 2, and others from Ford, Audi, Mercedes, Jaguar, Volvo, Hyundai and Kia are all already being delivered. There are many more expected within a year from most SUV manufacturers.
There are at least 4 EV Pickup trucks expected to be in production in the next year
So? EV SUVs already exist - Tesla has 2, and others from Ford, Audi, Mercedes, Jaguar, Volvo, Hyundai and Kia are all already being delivered. There are many more expected within a year from most SUV manufacturers.
There are at least 4 EV Pickup trucks expected to be in production in the next year
3. What about the last mile? Most people in the US can charge at home when parked and some can charge when parked at work/school. For a lot of people, that means fewer number of trips to refuel no matter what the source. Is there no attraction to being able to refuel at home and almost never having to refuel elsewhere or starting off most days with a pretty full tank? How unhappy are you about the several minutes for refueling a car with gas or diesel? That is usually the only option people have since they don't usually get fuel delivery to their homes or where they park their vehicles. Now what happens when EVs at fast chargers are capable of refueling the same number of miles per minute (or even more) than today's ICE vehicles at a station?
Not really a huge value for me, no. Refueling is sort of annoying but it's something I do every around 460-480 miles. The entire detour takes around 10 minutes in a bad case scenario where I have to go out of my way to get gas and 5 minutes in a better case scenario where I just pop off the freeway and back on again. I honestly couldn't tell you the last time I made a special trip to refuel. I have a vague recollection that I may have done that before a road trip followed by coming to the realization that that was a really stupid thing to do and I should have just gotten gas on the way... but I may just be making that up and I never did such a silly thing at all.
It's kind of like buying a PHEV and then not charging at home because plugging in every day is inconvenient. Okay, sure, maybe it takes 30 seconds and on a lot of PHEVs that only gets you 20 miles or less of range. Five minutes for perhaps 350 miles at a gas station or 30 seconds for 20 miles to plug in, I guess it's about the same in terms of how much time it takes. Still, it baffles me.
Overall between plugging in every day or every few days or getting gas every 450 miles, it's a toss up. I'm fine doing either. But the gas car can be refueled in 5-10 minutes for another 450 miles just about anywhere whereas with the EV it's more like perhaps 150-200 miles in 30 minutes in a very few places. Gasoline has an emphatic advantage there.
Which that's not to say I don't like the idea of EVs. Next daily will be at least as EV as my current hybrid and most likely more. I'd say 25% it's another hybrid, 50% PHEV, 25% pure EV. A lot of that depends on how permanent WFH becomes. If it becomes more permanent, I'd lean towards just getting a weekend car which would be unlikely to be an EV. Just not a lot of EVs that speak to me as a weekend car, at least not at what I'd want to spend for them. I wouldn't say no to a Taycan but that's $80 grand and really I'd rather just get a used 911 Turbo.
Not really a huge value for me, no. Refueling is sort of annoying but it's something I do every around 460-480 miles. The entire detour takes around 10 minutes in a bad case scenario where I have to go out of my way to get gas and 5 minutes in a better case scenario where I just pop off the freeway and back on again. I honestly couldn't tell you the last time I made a special trip to refuel. I have a vague recollection that I may have done that before a road trip followed by coming to the realization that that was a really stupid thing to do and I should have just gotten gas on the way... but I may just be making that up and I never did such a silly thing at all.
It's kind of like buying a PHEV and then not charging at home because plugging in every day is inconvenient. Okay, sure, maybe it takes 30 seconds and on a lot of PHEVs that only gets you 20 miles or less of range. Five minutes for perhaps 350 miles at a gas station or 30 seconds for 20 miles to plug in, I guess it's about the same in terms of how much time it takes. Still, it baffles me.
Overall between plugging in every day or every few days or getting gas every 450 miles, it's a toss up. I'm fine doing either. But the gas car can be refueled in 5-10 minutes for another 450 miles just about anywhere whereas with the EV it's more like perhaps 150-200 miles in 30 minutes in a very few places. Gasoline has an emphatic advantage there.
Which that's not to say I don't like the idea of EVs. Next daily will be at least as EV as my current hybrid and most likely more. I'd say 25% it's another hybrid, 50% PHEV, 25% pure EV. A lot of that depends on how permanent WFH becomes. If it becomes more permanent, I'd lean towards just getting a weekend car which would be unlikely to be an EV. Just not a lot of EVs that speak to me as a weekend car, at least not at what I'd want to spend for them. I wouldn't say no to a Taycan but that's $80 grand and really I'd rather just get a used 911 Turbo.
Everyone's situation is different. I guess for someone who parks out in their driveway and has to drag a charge cord out to the car, it could be inconvenient, but for me it's not. I have a 220v outlet in my garage right next to my car, so really it only takes ten seconds to reach over, grab the charger, and plug it in. I normally get 40 miles of electric range with my Volt, and it's totally worth it to plug it in. I don't have to worry about going inside the store, or the card reader on the pump not working that day, or having to listen to the next car's booming stereo while I'm pumping gas, etc..
My house has 100 amp service and the 1 car detached garage has a couple of boats in it. Tesla says 60 amps. I’d have to run 200 amp service from the street, swap out my outdoor main panel that was installed for my mini-split, and run new service to a new sub panel in my garage. At the moment, the cars are gasoline and everything in the house is natural gas except for AC. I don’t have a lot of unobstructed south facing roof for panels. I could shift to an AWD Tesla with a receiver hitch but I’d need a structure for all the debris in the garage and I’d have a big electrician bill.
My house has 100 amp service and the 1 car detached garage has a couple of boats in it. Tesla says 60 amps. I’d have to run 200 amp service from the street, swap out my outdoor main panel that was installed for my mini-split, and run new service to a new sub panel in my garage. At the moment, the cars are gasoline and everything in the house is natural gas except for AC. I don’t have a lot of unobstructed south facing roof for panels. I could shift to an AWD Tesla with a receiver hitch but I’d need a structure for all the debris in the garage and I’d have a big electrician bill.
I had 200 amp service installed when I built my house. Good decision, as I went to electric heat after the high-efficiency oil furnace stopped working. With an all electric house, I would probably have to upgrade to at least 300 amp service if I wanted a plug-in electric vehicle. 100 amp service was considered to be planning for the future at one time. I imagine there are still many houses that have less than that.
From what I have seen, there are a fair number of 225 amp service panels, which is a useful bump over 200 amps, but then nothing until you get up to 400 amp capacity.
The new EVs from Tesla and Ford have an 11kW onboard charger, which seems to correspond to a 48-amp draw, and they say should be supported by a 60-amp circuit. https://evcharging.enelx.com/store/r...al/juicebox-48
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