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Electricity charging an EV is still cheaper than buying poison juice. Petro fuels are undertaxed for the damage they do.
So again, the argument isn't one of scarcity but of the supposed superiority of one technology over the other, with the additional argument of insufficient taxation thrown in for good measure.
The main issue with batteries is they can't and probably never will come close to competing with liquid or liquefied fuels for energy density. That still gives the latter an advantage for long-haul applications. ICE-powered vehicles will still be with us in some form or another for the foreseeable future.
When
Countries and US states have that date, and earlier, stipulated. When is a given.
It is an inevitability that sales of EVs will outpace ICEs at some point, but at least here in the U.S., the "when" is really not a given. The 2035 date that's been established for some states in the U.S. (including my own) is the point at which all new car sales need to be EVs. The vast majority of states have yet to implement such deadlines.
Assuming that all 50 states go with 2035 (they won't - some will fight it and some won't set a deadline at all) and the date isn't challenged or moved back (certainly not a guarantee), new car sales still only account for about 20% of total car sales each year. The average age of a car on the road is about 12 years. So it'll still take time to reach the point at which EVs have a larger market share than ICEs. While it's inevitable that it'll happen at some point, when exactly it happens is very much up in the air. I expect my next car will be an EV, but I would wager I'll be in the minority of drivers for quite some time.
So again, the argument isn't one of scarcity but of the supposed superiority of one technology over the other, with the additional argument of insufficient taxation thrown in for good measure.
The main issue with batteries is they can't and probably never will come close to competing with liquid or liquefied fuels for energy density. That still gives the latter an advantage for long-haul applications. ICE-powered vehicles will still be with us in some form or another for the foreseeable future.
I think the long haul applications are where some people argue that fuel cells come in where like ICE vehicles, the refueling cycle is quick and the energy density fairly high. It seems like a bit of a longshot, but it's not completely out of the question.
So again, the argument isn't one of scarcity but of the supposed superiority of one technology over the other, with the additional argument of insufficient taxation thrown in for good measure.
The main issue with batteries is they can't and probably never will come close to competing with liquid or liquefied fuels for energy density. That still gives the latter an advantage for long-haul applications. ICE-powered vehicles will still be with us in some form or another for the foreseeable future.
They do, and if you have been paying attention, you would have gleened that solid state batteries takes it to another game changing level. The energy density in a gallon of gasoline is high, but overall low in the application, as 80% of the energy in the tank is wasted because of the abysmal efficiency of the internal combustion engine.
There are many point that put an EV way ahead of poison fume generators.
I think the long haul applications are where some people argue that fuel cells come in where like ICE vehicles, the refueling cycle is quick and the energy density fairly high. It seems like a bit of a longshot, but it's not completely out of the question.
Once again, fare paying hydrogen fuel cell passenger trains are operatoinal in Germany. To be trialled in the UK and other countries.
It is an inevitability that sales of EVs will outpace ICEs at some point, but at least here in the U.S., the "when" is really not a given. The 2035 date that's been established for some states in the U.S. (including my own) is the point at which all new car sales need to be EVs. The vast majority of states have yet to implement such deadlines.
Assuming that all 50 states go with 2035 (they won't - some will fight it and some won't set a deadline at all) and the date isn't challenged or moved back (certainly not a guarantee), new car sales still only account for about 20% of total car sales each year. The average age of a car on the road is about 12 years. So it'll still take time to reach the point at which EVs have a larger market share than ICEs. While it's inevitable that it'll happen at some point, when exactly it happens is very much up in the air. I expect my next car will be an EV, but I would wager I'll be in the minority of drivers for quite some time.
It will not be all or nothing, where overnight all will have to buy EVs, and no one did before the deadline. As the years roll up to the 2035 date, EV sales will outsell ICE cars anyhow. The price of them will come down, or below, to current cars, they are pretty well maintenance free, with fuel to run them much, much, cheaper, with superior reliability.
People will flock to them once the fast chargers are at stations, and they have a charger in their own drive.
and if you have been paying attention, you would have gleened that solid state batteries takes it to another game changing level.
Not with regard to energy density compared to liquid fuels they don't.
Quote:
Originally Posted by John-UK
The energy density in a gallon of gasoline is high, but overall low in the application, as 80% of the energy in the tank is wasted because of the abysmal efficiency of the internal combustion engine.
It's more like 70% -- and yet they're still the more viable solution for long-haul transportation because it's much easier to scale up stored energy capacity -- you just add a bigger fuel tank and it along with the extra fuel adds maybe a couple hundred pounds to the overall vehicle weight. To scale similarly with batteries adds a huge amount of additional weight -- and not just in the batteries themselves but in the extra weight of the chassis/frame components to cope with that extra weight.
Quote:
Originally Posted by John-UK
There are many point that put an EV way ahead of poison fume generators.
And yet, ICE-powered vehicles will still be with us for the foreseeable future because batteries can't come close to competing with liquid or liquefied fuels for energy density.
It is an inevitability that sales of EVs will outpace ICEs at some point, but at least here in the U.S., the "when" is really not a given. The 2035 date that's been established for some states in the U.S. (including my own) is the point at which all new car sales need to be EVs. The vast majority of states have yet to implement such deadlines.
Assuming that all 50 states go with 2035 (they won't - some will fight it and some won't set a deadline at all) and the date isn't challenged or moved back (certainly not a guarantee), new car sales still only account for about 20% of total car sales each year. The average age of a car on the road is about 12 years. So it'll still take time to reach the point at which EVs have a larger market share than ICEs. While it's inevitable that it'll happen at some point, when exactly it happens is very much up in the air. I expect my next car will be an EV, but I would wager I'll be in the minority of drivers for quite some time.
It kind of doesn’t matter. The affluent states drive the economy. If California and the Northeast Corridor states mandate EV, the economics don’t work to have gasoline cars for a limited number of lower wealth states. An awful lot of models won’t be available with gasoline engines.
It will not be all or nothing, where overnight all will have to buy EVs, and no one did previously. As the years roll up to the 2035 date, EV sales will outsell ICE cars anyhow. The price of them will come down, or below, to current cars, they are pretty well maintenance free, with fuel to run them much, much cheaper, with superior reliability.
People will flock to them once the fast chargers are at stations, and they have a charger in their own drive.
I don't disagree with any of this (and essentially said many of the same things). My only point was simply that we don't know when EVs will overtake ICE vehicles in terms of market share. We know it will happen, but there are a few variables that will determine the "when." I'm hopeful that it'll happen sooner rather than later, but there are a lot of factors that could push the timeline back beyond 2030 or 2035.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD
It kind of doesn’t matter. The affluent states drive the economy. If California and the Northeast Corridor states mandate EV, the economics don’t work to have gasoline cars for a limited number of lower wealth states. An awful lot of models won’t be available with gasoline engines.
Of course. And if EVs reach a point before 2035 where they're as affordable as (or cheaper than) ICEs, perform better, and require far less maintenance, it won't matter anyway. In that case, the vast majority of consumers will opt for the EV no matter which states do/don't require all new cars to be EVs by 2035. But as long as the used car market is similarly robust around 2035, it'll still take some time for the overall breakdown of vehicles to go majority EV. Especially when there's a sizable contingent of the population who is loony enough to believe that a shift to better technology is an attack on their personal freedoms.
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Look into it a little more.