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We leased the Model 3. It is the first time I have ever leased a car in my life, but I felt like it was a hedge against new technology and competition coming into the space in three years. We are about half way through the term.
Regarding the other poster’s comment on cold weather, I forgot to mention one of my favorite Tesla features during the winter. We plug the car in at night and have it set to be ready to go at 7:30am, when my wife drives the kids to school. The battery and car are warmed up and ready when they get in the car. When the outside temp was -5 this week, she was getting into an 80 degree car. No exhaust means it can warm up in a closed garage. Pretty nice!
Tell me how that works if you live in an apartment with no garage and the closet your car can be to your apartment is 75 yards with a path and road between you and your EV?
You are a little off on your info - #1 oil is considered diesel fuel - depending on how cold it gets #1 and #2 are blended in colder areas to make it flow better and keep the paraffin from clogging filters, but that makes the fuel more expensive, quicker to start but lower efficiency and more wear.
Trains and ships do something different - trains use something closer to regular diesel but employ heaters - most trains are electric or diesel electric. Marine fuel oil that is used in most Ships is more like crud that doesn't flow unless heated, it is closer to tar than diesel - they are often using large 2 strokes because of the fuel used.
Sorry but you are incorrect - electric aircraft, ships, boats, tractor trailers, backhoes, loaders, excavators, dump trucks and so on do exist.
Electric aircraft exist - here is an example that is already certified and in production.
Electric ships/boats also exist - most submarines run on electric drive and many bass boats and some sailboats have electric drive motors that are powered by batteries. Barges have no power - they are pulled by tugs that are often diesel electric. Tesla has a couple of Tractor trailers that are all electric and in use to haul batteries between Reno NV and Fremont CA.
Electric heavy equipment already exists also - here is a large dump truck and an excavator. Volvo has said all new smaller loader and backhoe equipment will be electric - some that have been already developed.
I looked at your link on the excavator. I've actually seen a 1.5t JCB digger in use. Here's a bit from the article -
They believe that the battery capacity can enable between five and seven hours of use before needing to charge, which can be done overnight.
What happened was, we went to a construction show that was on over a few days. So how did the eDigger perform? Well, it sat there with it's charge lead in because the charge lead developed a fault through the night. So by the time that was sorted, we only saw it operate like a normal digger for 15 mins before we had to head off home.
Now just imagine that happens on site on a several £million contract!! Or even due to a power cut!! Or you could just empty a 25 litre of red diesel into it's tank.
If they're talking about Alaska, I can't see anyone getting far with the heater on in a Tesla, and do Tesla's tow caravans and diggers?
I agree that out in Fairbanks, Alaska, the value proposition of an EV will need quite a bit of improvement to make sense over an ICE vehicle. The question then is how many people live in conditions similar to Fairbanks, Alaska, and for your own purposes, are the weather conditions and the geographic distances between things you need to get to that similar or even more trying than what you'll see in Fairbanks? Do you normally get under -27C temperatures in winter? Are you 500+ km from the nearest larger city and 3300+ km from the nearest major city?
And yea, Teslas do tow caravans, though as luxury vehicles, I doubt there are too many towing diggers, but Teslas aren't the only EVs now and they certainly won't be when you said you'd be considering a purchase of a new vehicle in 2029.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DropABottleOfPopOff
Tell me how that works if you live in an apartment with no garage and the closet your car can be to your apartment is 75 yards with a path and road between you and your EV?
Do you have a petrol pump that's regularly serviced in your apartment with no garage? Chances are you do not. Then in that case, it'd be similar to how you'd have to go to somewhere else to refill. A major difference for an EV is that many more places will offer areas to gradually refill as you're parked which an ICE vehicle will not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DropABottleOfPopOff
I looked at your link on the excavator. I've actually seen a 1.5t JCB digger in use. Here's a bit from the article -
They believe that the battery capacity can enable between five and seven hours of use before needing to charge, which can be done overnight.
What happened was, we went to a construction show that was on over a few days. So how did the eDigger perform? Well, it sat there with it's charge lead in because the charge lead developed a fault through the night. So by the time that was sorted, we only saw it operate like a normal digger for 15 mins before we had to head off home.
Now just imagine that happens on site on a several £million contract!! Or even due to a power cut!! Or you could just empty a 25 litre of red diesel into it's tank.
It's true that these diggers don't currently have the technology to be all that economical right now, but you are asking about several years into the future.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-21-2021 at 10:19 PM..
I agree that out in Fairbanks, Alaska, the value proposition of an EV will need quite a bit of improvement to make sense over an ICE vehicle. The question then is how many people live in conditions similar to Fairbanks, Alaska, and for your own purposes, are the weather conditions and the geographic distances between things you need to get to that similar or even more trying than what you'll see in Fairbanks? Do you normally get under -27C temperatures in winter? Are you 500+ km from the nearest larger city and 3300+ km from the nearest major city?
And yea, Teslas do tow caravans, though as luxury vehicles, I doubt there are too many towing diggers, but Teslas aren't the only EVs now and they certainly won't be when you said you'd be considering a purchase of a new vehicle in 2029.
Do you have a petrol pump that's regularly serviced in your apartment with no garage? Chances are you do not. Then in that case, it'd be similar to how you'd have to go to somewhere else to refill. A major difference for an EV is that many more places will offer areas to gradually refill as you're parked which an ICE vehicle will not.
It's true that these diggers don't currently have the technology to be all that economical right now, but you are asking about several years into the future.
I'm adding my reality, my predicament, what's actual.
To your first part, experienced a week or two at -13c in the past, usually -5c to -8c for a few weeks most years. Probably drive 60 miles from one major city to another. I can see that being different living in the US, Russia etc.. in terms of being umpteen times worse. Often drive in the Lake District, very hilly.
To your second part, Towing, not realistic with current technology. You need to get realistic with vehicle prices. Capacity of upto 2500kg is no good in construction.
To your third part, I fill a car and van up every fortnight maximum, often when I'm passing the pump. This makes parking no problem. But electric, I can't charge from home, the pavement on both sides of the road are about 4.5 foot wide. The width of the road means traffic can only park on one side, so what do the residents do on the opposite side to charge a car? How does a charging station sit on a pavement? How do charging leads cross the pavement? Do you put the charger against the kerb? Do they get crashed into? What about opening your door if it's close to the kerb? What about a LWB van taking 1.5 spaces up? Sometimes you park around the corner up against the side of a house, how does a charger work there?
And you're last part, yes, get the technology sorted FIRST because just saying, "Future technology will make it possible" just doesn't cut it. We need tangible results, not "hopeful" results based on faith.
===============================
I can see the excitement some people are having that it's all go with EV's, it's all go to ban the sale of new ICE's from 2030 etc...
But we NEED REALISTIC answers to infrastructure, to sensible costs ie. to match ICE's, and people need to get out of the idea that we we all can afford a new Tesla, just need to carry a brief case, park it on our 1 acre driveway in the sunshine 24/7. But these people need to get out of the clouds and go see reality.
I agree that out in Fairbanks, Alaska, the value proposition of an EV will need quite a bit of improvement to make sense over an ICE vehicle. The question then is how many people live in conditions similar to Fairbanks, Alaska, and for your own purposes, are the weather conditions and the geographic distances between things you need to get to that similar or even more trying than what you'll see in Fairbanks? Do you normally get under -27C temperatures in winter? Are you 500+ km from the nearest larger city and 3300+ km from the nearest major city?
And yea, Teslas do tow caravans, though as luxury vehicles, I doubt there are too many towing diggers, but Teslas aren't the only EVs now and they certainly won't be when you said you'd be considering a purchase of a new vehicle in 2029.
Do you have a petrol pump that's regularly serviced in your apartment with no garage? Chances are you do not. Then in that case, it'd be similar to how you'd have to go to somewhere else to refill. A major difference for an EV is that many more places will offer areas to gradually refill as you're parked which an ICE vehicle will not.
It's true that these diggers don't currently have the technology to be all that economical right now, but you are asking about several years into the future.
Extreme ambient temperatures (cold in this case) aren't just in Alaska, but in several of the US States surrounding the Big Lakes, and North through Canada and Alaska. The same thing in Northern Russia (Siberia, and so forth).
Then most countries around the world don't have the means to switch to EV from ICE, regardless temperature. Lest say that there is an EV tractor/trailer driver delivering a trailer load of produce and other perishable foods from Texas to CA in the middle of the hot summer: he (or she) would need a lot of power to keep the refrigerators and AC running non-stop, even when sleeping in the cab. It is not only diggers that lack EV technology, but big trucks of all kinds, buses that are used for long distance travel, cruise ships, tug boats, military and commercial aircraft, and so on. EV technology can replace a portion of ICE, specially in metropolitan areas...only if apartment dwellers have individual charging stations either at the apartment parking lots, or the streets. Yes, if you live in a house, then you can have a charging station there. If the power goes out for two or three days like it happened in Texas, then you may have to call work and ask for a short vacation.
While I don't have a gas pump at my house, I keep approximately 35 gallons of gasoline in a shed at my backyard., but it would make no sense too drive home on an empty tank. I purchase this fuel at one of the Fred Mayer gas stations, under they "fuel points" discount. The maximum is 35 gallons at $1.00 per-gallon discount. If the power goes out, then I use a Honda generator to power the water well, and the boiler to keep the house warm.
I imagine that an electric chainsaw that has a 24" bar would need an enormous battery in order to keep up with an ICE chainsaw that has a 24" bar. I bought a 20-volt Dewalt chainsaw as a present to my wife, for cutting small trees and branches. It has a "maybe" 10" bar, and she can make about 90 each x 4" diameter cuts. I can make hundreds of 8" cuts with my 12" bar Stihl chainsaw on a few ounces of fuel.
Please. You are not being rational. If the population of EVs begin to expand in Alaska all those gas stations will sprout fast chargers. They either have access to enough power or will use gas generators to power the chargers. If they have the fuel for the ICE vehicles going away they will have enough to generate power for the EVs.
But you are not being rational. In most places around the world, there is not enough money to replace ICE with EV.
I actually think Ray is being rational. There are definitely some edge cases for which ICEs make sense. The Alaska highway is a pretty good example of that, at least for the time being. Heavy trucking over long distances is another case where pure EVs won't take over for a while.
One thing I'd wonder about though as it pertains to Alaska and EVs. Alaska has a lot of villages which don't have road access to the outside world and for which bringing in gasoline and diesel must be a logistical nightmare and which must make fuel really expensive. Aren't EVs a much better solution in those communities?
The isolate villages depend on fuel for everything. During the summer villagers use boats, snowmobiles (so called, snow machines), chainsaws, and so on. Fuel and every other product is flown-in, or by boat during the summer, or even snowmobiles during the winter. Generators, boats, and things like that are very common. But most of the fuel is stored during the summer for winter use. Some villages are large enough for residents to have automobiles, schools, perhaps a clinic, a power plant, and so on, while other villages are too small to have much of anything, including electricity, sewage, and water. Wood stoves are very common in the small villages.
That said, isolated villages or populations aren't unique only to Alaska. Some of the posters in this thread are stating their points in relation to the places they live at, most of which are large cities and town that are in vicinity to other cities and towns. But that is not the case in a lot of places around the world, specially third world countries. While we have a lot of countries that are very rich and can afford gradually changing from ICE to EV, in most places around the world such things aren't possible.
During a natural disaster, the most reliable energy is oil (fuel). During a flood boats and helicopters can be used for rescue. During the fire season, firetrucks and aircraft can be used to rescue people and fight fires. Water to quench fires can be pumped from lakes, rivers, ponds, and so on, or just scooped up by the fire-fighting aircraft. All of these types of equipment run on fuel.
The thing that a lot of people fail to understand is that batteries and capacitors are electric storage devices that don't generate electricity. As such, batteries depend on power generating equipment. For the time being, coal, oil, and nuclear are the primary sources of energy. Solar, wind, and hydro-power can't replace those three sources because they depend on mother nature.
Also, we talk about all the clean air and lack of pollution we want for our nations (West), without thinking about the ground and air pollution we are creating around the rest of the world. It takes a lot of resources to mine our precious batteries, and we live a mess for others to deal with. We are over the industrialized nation era. China and a lot of countries around the world are now industrialized or becoming so, and its only a matter of time until we become dependent of these nations for us to maintain our standard of living.
I'm adding my reality, my predicament, what's actual.
To your first part, experienced a week or two at -13c in the past, usually -5c to -8c for a few weeks most years. Probably drive 60 miles from one major city to another. I can see that being different living in the US, Russia etc.. in terms of being umpteen times worse. Often drive in the Lake District, very hilly.
To your second part, Towing, not realistic with current technology. You need to get realistic with vehicle prices. Capacity of upto 2500kg is no good in construction.
To your third part, I fill a car and van up every fortnight maximum, often when I'm passing the pump. This makes parking no problem. But electric, I can't charge from home, the pavement on both sides of the road are about 4.5 foot wide. The width of the road means traffic can only park on one side, so what do the residents do on the opposite side to charge a car? How does a charging station sit on a pavement? How do charging leads cross the pavement? Do you put the charger against the kerb? Do they get crashed into? What about opening your door if it's close to the kerb? What about a LWB van taking 1.5 spaces up? Sometimes you park around the corner up against the side of a house, how does a charger work there?
And you're last part, yes, get the technology sorted FIRST because just saying, "Future technology will make it possible" just doesn't cut it. We need tangible results, not "hopeful" results based on faith.
===============================
I can see the excitement some people are having that it's all go with EV's, it's all go to ban the sale of new ICE's from 2030 etc...
But we NEED REALISTIC answers to infrastructure, to sensible costs ie. to match ICE's, and people need to get out of the idea that we we all can afford a new Tesla, just need to carry a brief case, park it on our 1 acre driveway in the sunshine 24/7. But these people need to get out of the clouds and go see reality.
I understand that so I asked about the situations you'd be using your vehicles earlier in this thread. Your experience as you're outlining it is definitely a far cry from that of someone living in Fairbanks, Alaska. Sure, maybe you live in the Scottish Highlands and it gets pretty cold, but it is a far cry from the kind of cold that you see in Fairbanks--I don't think you're quite understanding that while -13C is cold, it is still a far cry from -27C cold which isn't an extreme cold for Fairbanks, but an average low. This is a very different level of cold that makes your situation somewhat quaint in comparison.
Meanwhile, 60 miles to go from one city to another is a very short distance. Anchorage isn't all that big of a city, but it's the only one that's larger within hundreds of miles from Fairbanks.
Towing 2250 kg 60 miles and back on a single charge is doable with EVs out today--it is nowhere near doable for the 300+ mile each way from Fairbanks to Anchorage.
For your purposes, EVs are probably going to be just fine by your stated intent of purchasing a vehicle in 2029. Vehicles out now coverage your use case already and so there will certainly be far more options available soon. Rivian's R1T is going into production this year and it does 400+ miles of range, 11000 pounds / 5000 kg towing, and supposedly the range drops by half when it's towing at *full* capacity, so that easily covers what you've mentioned. In terms of trying conditions, early prototypes went through a long trip through Patagonia and the Andes and more spanning the southernmost city of South America up through to Los Angeles in North America, so your trip and conditions are a fair bit more pedestrian. The big issues for you really is if they'll be affordable or at least a comparably good value by 2029 which seems likely, but of course isn't guaranteed to happen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RayinAK
Extreme ambient temperatures (cold in this case) aren't just in Alaska, but in several of the US States surrounding the Big Lakes, and North through Canada and Alaska. The same thing in Northern Russia (Siberia, and so forth).
Then most countries around the world don't have the means to switch to EV from ICE, regardless temperature. Lest say that there is an EV tractor/trailer driver delivering a trailer load of produce and other perishable foods from Texas to CA in the middle of the hot summer: he (or she) would need a lot of power to keep the refrigerators and AC running non-stop, even when sleeping in the cab. It is not only diggers that lack EV technology, but big trucks of all kinds, buses that are used for long distance travel, cruise ships, tug boats, military and commercial aircraft, and so on. EV technology can replace a portion of ICE, specially in metropolitan areas...only if apartment dwellers have individual charging stations either at the apartment parking lots, or the streets. Yes, if you live in a house, then you can have a charging station there. If the power goes out for two or three days like it happened in Texas, then you may have to call work and ask for a short vacation.
While I don't have a gas pump at my house, I keep approximately 35 gallons of gasoline in a shed at my backyard., but it would make no sense too drive home on an empty tank. I purchase this fuel at one of the Fred Mayer gas stations, under they "fuel points" discount. The maximum is 35 gallons at $1.00 per-gallon discount. If the power goes out, then I use a Honda generator to power the water well, and the boiler to keep the house warm.
Realistically, very few places are anywhere near the kind of cold that you have in Fairbanks and you know that's a mighty different level of winter than compared to Juneau which is also in Alaska. Alaska is large and covers quite a bit of temperature differences. When you say Big Lakes, I'm guessing you might have been meaning Great Lakes which is also nowhere near as cold as Fairbanks on average. The vast majority of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US border and that 100 miles to the border is also in general far less cold than Fairbanks and much closer in cold to northern/interior-ish Norway which is now at majority EV new vehicle market share and seems to get on with it just fine.
I agree, most of the world doesn't have the means to make a switch from EV to ICE--most of the world can't afford vehicles per household though China's starting to export some extremely cheap EVs and it's more likely for people to have access to electricity than they are to affordable gasoline in much of the world.
I understand that long haul trucking routes do not have an EV replacement right now and likely won't in the next few years at the very least same with a lot of aircraft. However, the OP wasn't really asking to purchase any of those. He's talking about diggers, caravans, and 60 mile trips. That's definitely not outside of what EVs now can do. The point of the apartment dwellers doesn't make all that much sense because most people can't refuel at their parking spaces near their apartments either and they probably aren't going to the pump every day either--this would be similar for someone with a longer range EV. What they don't get is the operational savings of the EV and are slightly penalized for their refueling time by probably fifteen minutes for every 100 hundred mile driven, so it's definitely not that great of a value proposition. This is also similar with what happened in Texas--people with EVs generally had an already topped-off tank when the power went out and can use it. They also didn't generally run the risk of carbon monoxiding themselves into the hospital or the grave.
I guess if someone was really worried about losing power at home and had an EV, they can keep either a generator with fuel like you do which would put them essentially in the same position or they can get a stationary storage battery.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-22-2021 at 09:47 PM..
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