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In the US gas prices are not "near a record" . They are setting new unprecedented records.
Tesla has been in a 4 month slide from a market cap of $1230Billion to $825Billion, but during that period they began Model Y production at new Austin factory. So I suspect they won't have any trouble selling the new vehicles.
In the US gas prices are not "near a record" . They are setting new unprecedented records.
Tesla has been in a 4 month slide from a market cap of $1230Billion to $825Billion, but during that period they began Model Y production at new Austin factory. So I suspect they won't have any trouble selling the new vehicles.
Near, and anyways inflation adjusted not yet a record.
Quote:
Originally Posted by usatoday
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel-savings app GasBuddy, said in a tweet Sunday the national average could reach up to $4.10 by Tuesday, adding to the possibility the record could be broken by the end of the week. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...on/9402743002/
The speculation in that article written on Sunday was too conservative. National average reached a record $4.173 two days after the article was written, and not the end of the week.
But California was setting all time records last week.
28-Feb-2022: Norway Gasoline prices $8.892 / gallon. Market Share of new vehicles registered in February
79.6% BEVs
8.6% PHEVs
4.5% hybrids without plug-in
4.7% gasoline
4.7% diesel
It's starting to look like the pure gasoline and diesel new vehicles might be gone by the end of the year.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 03-08-2022 at 12:10 PM..
It's starting to look like the pure gasoline and diesel new vehicles might be gone by the end of the year.
US there's 16 million or so new ones sold a year. Even if everyone wanted to spend $15k more for equievalant EVs, which more will be certainly by no means everyone at the higher gas prices, they won't be able to. All more demand is going to do over the course of the year is make EVs more expensive than they already are which in turn will lower the demand for them. Hyundai dealers want 5-10k over MSRP for the Ioniq 5 and they don't have any trouble getting that. The Santa Fe is maybe $2k over MSRP. Wait on a Tesla is out to August even though they've raised the price by $9,000 over the last year or so. There basically won't be more EVs so more demand will simply mean higher prices. Hyundai might want 20k over MSRP instead of 5-10k, Tesla might raise the price another 10k to manage the wait times.
Gas isn't really that relevant. If I drive 15,000 a year in an average car that gets 26 mpg and gas costs me $2,000 a year at 3.50 it's not a huge deal if it's $4,000 a year at $7/gallon. For poor people it certainly is a big deal but, well, poor people aren't looking at a $50,000 Ioniq 5 that's currently marked up to $55,000 or $60,000 anyway, let alone wondering if it would be worth it to spend $70,000 with a 20k markup because gas is $7 a gallon.
The effects on the US market will be more marginal ones. For one people don't really think about budgets in a lot of cases. They just blow money. Even if they were to think logically about it they'd still buy new cars, just less expensive ones and prioritize ones that got better fuel economy. Someone looking at a 60k 4x4 LT1 Tahoe might figure gas that used to cost them $3,000/year now is going to cost $6,000 a year. The monthly payments with 60 month note at 1.9% are $1,100 a month so maybe I should look at a combination of less car with payments around $850 to offset the gas prices or something that gets better mileage. Maybe they step down to an LS to offset the price or get a soccer mom crossover like a Durango rather than a real SUV. More likely though they just get the Tahoe and then occasionally complain about how much gas is costing them. People looking at 60-70k Tahoes generally have discretionary income. In a lot of cases they're just going to blow it all, just a question of what they spend it on. They need to live month to month so it's a given they'll find some way to spend it.
Norway it's not just gas prices. They've taxed gasoline cars to death will subsidizing EVs so it's not really surprising that EVs are mostly what sells. It's the same reason that EVs do not sell here. People don't actually care whether they drive EVs or gasoline cars for the most part. They just buy what makes more sense which in Norway is EVs. It's a small enough market at 180k that it doesn't have any real impact on the global market. Norway could ban gas cars entirely and there's enough EVs in production it wouldn't make any noticealbe difference. You're only talking about 30k gasoline/diesel powered cars a year. There's not enough EVs to replace the 16 million US car sales. They just don't exist.
Lastly, most people almost certainly correctly do not assume that even if $7 gas become reality that it will last. Energy prices are highly volatile. When COVID hit I was paying under $2/gallon here in CA. I never expected that to last because, well, that would be pretty stupid. Likewise for assuming that even if gas hits $7/gallon here it will remain there. If I had to throw darts and guess I'd say it settles somewhere around $4/gallon as far as a US average.
Norway it's not just gas prices. They've taxed gasoline cars to death will subsidizing EVs so it's not really surprising that EVs are mostly what sells. It's the same reason that EVs do not sell here. People don't actually care whether they drive EVs or gasoline cars for the most part. They just buy what makes more sense which in Norway is EVs. .
Norway February Vehicle Sales
383 Gasoline
383 Diesel
369 Hybrid
852 PHEV
6160 BEV
8147 total vehicle
But if Norway can persuade automakers from shipping pure gasoline and diesel cars into the country for sale in 2023, the benefits in terms of convention tourism would probably be huge if Norway beats their 2025 goal by two years. Every environmental group that holds a convention in Europe will want to come to Norway and smaller cities will benefit.
Yeah, in 2038 when the majority of cars on the road are EV it will be big tourist attraction for Ze and another 600 people that want to fly halfway across the world for the purposes of gawking at mostly EV traffick. I heard Home Depot has paint. You can use it on a fence and watch it dry. Electrifying.
BATTERY ELECTRIC CARS NEED LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES
IN THE USA, 290 million vehicles were registered in 2021. The figures include passenger cars, motorcycles, trucks, buses, and other vehicles.
A single EV has roughly 10 kilograms—or 22 pounds—of lithium in it. A ton of lithium metal is enough to build about 90 electric cars. Let's run with that in our example.
To build 290 million electric vehicles would require 2,895,000,000 kg (6.37 million lbs) of refined lithium.
2,895,000 tonnes (3,184,500 short tons)
Although the US has the world’s fourth-largest lithium reserves, measured at 6.8 million tonnes according to the US Geological Survey, production activity in the country is minimal.
OKAY, all we need to do is mine, refine 43% of all national lithium reserves to replace the current stock of vehicles.
Based on the fact that to replace all ICE vehicles with BEV would necessitate DOUBLING the electricity generating capacity, AND, mining 43% of all lithium reserves in the USA, I can unequivocally state that we shall NOT be able to afford shifting to BEVs in any significant percentage. Not by 2030, nor 2040, or 2050.
. . . .
What option do we have left?
Electric Traction Rail.
Shifting from pneumatic tire on pavement to steel wheel on steel rail cuts energy consumption by 90-95%.
So a 1:1 conversion to rail would NOT require doubling the power generating capacity.
However, a single train can displace hundreds if not thousands of automobile trips.
Instead of 290 million automobiles, trucks, etc, we may only need 290 thousand trains.
THAT is the simple reason why we can't delay "getting back on track".
GO RAIL!
ICE:
Peak thermal efficiencies around 35-40% for gasoline and 40-45% for diesel.
Electricity:
COAL : 33 - 45%
Coal fired electrical power plant efficiency: coal-fired power plants around the world today is 33 percent. Modern state-of-the-art plants can achieve rates of 45 percent.
OIL : 38%
Efficiency of 38% for oil-fired power generation.
NUCEAR : 33-37%
Typical nuclear power plants achieve efficiencies around 33-37%, comparable to fossil fueled power plants.
NATURAL GAS : 45-57%
Natural gas power plants have an efficiency between 45% and 57%, highest efficiency for a power plant type.
HYDROELECTRIC : 90%
Hydroelectric powerplants are the most efficient means of producing electric energy. The efficiency of today's hydroelectric plant is about 90 percent.
BEV: 77%
EVs convert over 77% of the electrical energy from the grid to power at the wheels. However, if the source is NOT hydroelectric, the overall efficiency is lower than a gasoline or diesel engine.
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