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He’ll keep them all for sure but even he admits that electric is the future.
As I said earlier, hydrogen doesn’t provide any convenience to the end user. Electric does no matter how hard the naysayers try to deny it. As range increases, that convenience factor will only get even better.
I can’t see a hydrogen car convincing me to go back to the old system of fueling outside of my home. I’m confident most EV owners would agree.
I wonder if we MIGHT see E-Fuels have a place for long-range trucking and aviation, perhaps, but I think electric will comprise 95% of the new vehicles sold in 10-15 yrs.
That is almost certainly true if you look at nationwide average. A modest EV will require up to 300-400 kWh per month to operate. For 2021 the average consumption of 138 million residential accounts in the US is 886 kWh per month. Since it will take decades to retire all the ICE vehicles in the US, that should be plenty of time to ramp up producion to meet the needs.
But the problem is we don't have a national system for distributing electricity as that would cost trillions of dollars to install high capacity direct current transmission line. So with only a few exceptions electricity must be generated only a few hundred miles from where it is consumed. Consumpion of electricity is very high in the South where air conditioning is a fact of life. Consumption is very low in New England, New York and California where most people don't heat with electricity and air conditioning is not as important.
CA 542 kWh per month 2021
VT 567 kWh per month 2021
ME 584 kWh per month 2021
RI 585 kWh per month 2021
MA 596 kWh per month 2021
NY 599 kWh per month 2021
NH 631 kWh per month 2021
.
US 886 kWh per month 2021
.
AL 1,140 kWh per month 2021
MS 1,171 kWh per month 2021
TN 1,183 kWh per month 2021
LA 1,192 kWh per month 2021
California electricity consumption is the lowest per customer of any state in the continental US. And a large percentage of that electricity is imported from nearby states which is subject to interruption when there is a regional heat wave.
California has the mos agressive state laws to outlaw the use of electricity generated by natural gas, hydrodynamic sources, and nuclear power. The law covers imported electricity as well, and California imports a lot of electricity from the dams in the Pacific Northwest and the massive nuclear power plant in Arizona only 100 miles across the CA state border.
California doesn't have much wiggle room at present in a heat wave. Of course, EV penetration is much higher in California than any other state.
Bottom line is California is much more susceptible to massive rolling blackouts in the summer during a heat wave than most other states. EVs will receive more than their fair share of the blame when that happens.
Engineers can argue that the Hindenburg disaster on May 6, 1937 does not prove that hydrogen is dangerous for lighter than air transport, but the public will never listen even 85 years later.
By the time that there are several million BEVs operating in California, when the rolling blackouts begin engineers will argue until they are blue in the face that there were multiple factors at work, and BEV penetration was not the primary one. But I doubt that people will listen.
The problem (as it often is) in CA is their own NIMBY/OMG THAT'S SCARY policy of energy production. California is a stupid state in many ways.
I wonder if we MIGHT see E-Fuels have a place for long-range trucking and aviation, perhaps, but I think electric will comprise 95% of the new vehicles sold in 10-15 yrs.
Agreed. I said this in an earlier post. Hydrogen makes a lot of sense in aviation and commercial equipment. It’s probably better for long-haul trucking too.
But for personal vehicles and run-around fleet vehicles, EV wins hands down. The issue is people making their vehicle purchase decisions based on outlier uses instead of daily use.
The problem (as it often is) in CA is their own NIMBY/OMG THAT'S SCARY policy of energy production. California is a stupid state in many ways.
Norway is awash in clean electricity due to their geography and the 1600 hydroelectric plants in the country. Nearly every home in Norway is heated by electricity and they never turn their lights off even if they are not at home.
The primary consumption of residential electricity in the USA is air conditioning. California gets away with the lowest electric consumption per residential account of any state in the continental US, largely because they don't heat homes with electricity for the most part and they are not overly reliant on air conditioning in much of the state for most of the year.
But consumption of electricity by vehicles are only minorly dependent on temperature. Seventy percent of the homes in California are heated by natural gas, and 50% of the electricit is generated using natural gas. California has declared a war on natural gas, nuclear, and hydrodynamic power. A number of cities have banned new construction from having natural gas for cooking and heating. Only two natural gas electrical generating plants have
Toyota Motors North America and Tesla have 31% of the new car market share in California
For first three quarters of 2022 in CA
17.4% Market share Toyota
3.0% Market share Lexus
10.7% Market share Tesla
That is almost certainly true if you look at nationwide average. A modest EV will require up to 300-400 kWh per month to operate. For 2021 the average consumption of 138 million residential accounts in the US is 886 kWh per month. Since it will take decades to retire all the ICE vehicles in the US, that should be plenty of time to ramp up producion to meet the needs.
But the problem is we don't have a national system for distributing electricity as that would cost trillions of dollars to install high capacity direct current transmission line. So with only a few exceptions electricity must be generated only a few hundred miles from where it is consumed. Consumpion of electricity is very high in the South where air conditioning is a fact of life. Consumption is very low in New England, New York and California where most people don't heat with electricity and air conditioning is not as important.
CA 542 kWh per month 2021
VT 567 kWh per month 2021
ME 584 kWh per month 2021
RI 585 kWh per month 2021
MA 596 kWh per month 2021
NY 599 kWh per month 2021
NH 631 kWh per month 2021
.
US 886 kWh per month 2021
.
AL 1,140 kWh per month 2021
MS 1,171 kWh per month 2021
TN 1,183 kWh per month 2021
LA 1,192 kWh per month 2021
California electricity consumption is the lowest per customer of any state in the continental US. And a large percentage of that electricity is imported from nearby states which is subject to interruption when there is a regional heat wave.
California has the mos agressive state laws to outlaw the use of electricity generated by natural gas, hydrodynamic sources, and nuclear power. The law covers imported electricity as well, and California imports a lot of electricity from the dams in the Pacific Northwest and the massive nuclear power plant in Arizona only 100 miles across the CA state border.
California doesn't have much wiggle room at present in a heat wave. Of course, EV penetration is much higher in California than any other state.
Bottom line is California is much more susceptible to massive rolling blackouts in the summer during a heat wave than most other states. EVs will receive more than their fair share of the blame when that happens.
Engineers can argue that the Hindenburg disaster on May 6, 1937 does not prove that hydrogen is dangerous for lighter than air transport, but the public will never listen even 85 years later.
By the time that there are several million BEVs operating in California, when the rolling blackouts begin engineers will argue until they are blue in the face that there were multiple factors at work, and BEV penetration was not the primary one. But I doubt that people will listen.
in state use per person is a lousy way to look at it. It hides the true fact. CA is the 2nd largest consumer in the US. TExas is higher, BUT, they have converted nearly all industry to electric since they generate it for nearly free off the waste gas from refining.
CA is by far the largest state and as you pointed out, the entire state does not need electric heat often and only some of the state needs high capacity air cond often.
CA has the LARGEST - by far - shortfall of overall requirements vs in state power generated and as your quote pointed out, not only do they frown on fossil generation, they now disallow imports from fossil or nuclear or hydro generation (at least on paper, no supplier feels all that sporty to honor that. They are their worst enemy.
And you are right about transmission distances, the reality is, AC or DC if wires have resistance and I have not seen anyone raise their hands that they solved that one, there is power loss in lines. farther you go, larger it is. In my own state we could self survive as we had for over 100 years, but in the eastern part of the state, we over generate in order to supply MD, NJ, DE, NY the lions share. In the eastern part, we closed too much such that we now need Canada (north of I80) or Ohio (south of I80- West of I 99) to make up the shortfall and in 2022 it failed twice.
so what once was true that we had adequate capacity, quickly became not-true in 2021 when out of the blue the DOE/EPA denied operating licenses to too many plants. The wind replacements are slow in coming and the availability is only 1/5th of the need. NO ONE reading this post failed to receive a power availability warning last year from their supplier.
Show me how that is good.
Picking on CA, the poster boy on how to do everything wrong, since they have defacto outlawed gas fired plants (yet get most in state from that ) and do not consider hydro or nuclear green and have outlawed THAT as well...that leaves them with wind, solar, geo and bio - all minor players and 2 of them are not continuous. I am 100% for a power embargo on Cali, let em suffer en masse - no one is gonna freeze, no one is gonna bake - until they de-insert millions of craniums from millions of rectums, wise up, grow up, and refresh Sacramento, starting at the top.
We are all well aware of the scarcity of "electricity pumps" along our nation's highways, and how long it takes to recharge the batteries. We're also well aware of what storms do to power lines , and how many days/weeks it takes to restore that power.
No thanks.
Ya wanna go electric? Go ahead.
As for the rest of us... we'll stick with gasoline.
We are all well aware of the scarcity of "electricity pumps" along our nation's highways, and how long it takes to recharge the batteries. We're also well aware of what storms do to power lines , and how many days/weeks it takes to restore that power.
No thanks.
Ya wanna go electric? Go ahead.
As for the rest of us... we'll stick with gasoline.
I've taken a dozen+ 700-900 mile road trips in my EV. There are chargers everywhere (usually no more than 50 miles apart, so that people with modern 250+ mile range EVs have no trouble finding them). BUT 90% of people drive less than 250 miles a day, so charging at home is sufficient for 99% of the use cases. Not merely around town, but look on a map at how far that really is.
It takes 20 minutes on a road trip to charge the batteries at a Level 3 charger and at home it takes me 10 seconds to recharge: 5 seconds to plug in when I get home and 5 to unplug when I leave in the morning to go to work or run errands or head off on a trip. The actual time charging is done while I sleep.
I'd rather deal with that and never have to GO somewhere to "fill up" in my daily use, even if I have to spend 20 minutes on a pit stop halfway on the rare road trip. And spending $6-7 for 300 miles of range instead of $50 to do the same in a gas car and deal with the fluctuating prices of gas.
I'll stick with gas for my tow vehicle, that only sees about 1200 miles a year as it gets 10 mpg and has a 35 gallon tank, so it cost a lot to fill up. But for daily use, I'll NEVER go back to gasoline.
Also about storms and power.. You do realize that when power goes out to your home, it doesn't magically suck all the power out of your EV even if it's plugged in, right? For most people if the power goes out, they still have a week of driving until it's out, and if necessary, they CAN go to a local fast charge place and get enough juice for another week of normal driving.
And you do know that if power does go out from storms, often gas station pumps no longer work,either, right? They run on electricity, too.
Quit listening to Tucker Carlson or the Koch brothers.
Toyota is planning on selling many more electric vehicles in China and Europe, but they have very modest sales goals for the US.Toyota is expecting 10,000 bZ4X sales in the US for 2023 (mostly in California) which is lower than Toyota''s plug in hybrid sales for 2022.
18,567 RAV4 Prime
11,857 Prius Prime
It's rare to see either prime model at dealers here. They are gone as soon as they come in, or just never come in. I might be interested in the RAV4 prime, but I need to drive it first.
This article says waits could be as long as 24 months.
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) and do not consider hydro or nuclear green and have outlawed THAT as well...that leaves them with wind, solar, geo and bio - all minor players and 2 of them are not continuous. I am 100% for a power embargo on Cali, let em suffer en masse - no one is gonna freeze, no one is gonna bake - until they de-insert millions of craniums from millions of rectums, wise up, grow up, and refresh Sacramento, starting at the top.
