When is the Next CA Housing Price Collapse Supposed to Happen? (San Diego: job openings, incomes)

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Home prices fall in Southern California for the first time in 7 years:

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-...426-story.html

Wow look how much they dropped.


CoreLogic reported Southern California’s median home price fell $500, or 0.1%, in March, the first year-over-year price drop since an 83-month streak of rising values began in April 2012. (Photo by Kevin Sullivan, Orange County Register/SCNG)



The median price of a Southern California home, or the price at the midpoint of all sales, was $518,500 last month, down 0.1% from March 2018’s median of $519,000.


https://www.ocregister.com/2019/04/2...me-in-7-years/


Oh boy, now thousands of buyers priced out can afford to buy a home in SoCal. Well maybe not.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Oh boy, now thousands of buyers priced out can afford to buy a home in SoCal. Well maybe not.

One never knows.

House Prices in 12 of California’s Most Expensive Coastal Counties Fell in March from a Year Ago. Here are the Charts:
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/17/ho...stal-counties/

[JGC97]

Trying to gauge the next housing collapse is about as easy as knowing which stock to buy. If I'd had that ability in 2007, I wouldn't have purchased a home only to watch the bottom fall out. It took years for that recovery but you can't get back the time lost when you have more years behind than in front of you.

In the meantime, watch for signs, read all you can about what's happening in real estate and hope you don't get sucked down when - or if - a big drop happens like it did before. Slight drops are normal but that one in 2008 knocked the wind out a lot of people. Although, it did make others quite wealthy.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by HereOnMars

Trying to gauge the next housing collapse is about as easy as knowing which stock to buy. If I'd had that ability in 2007, I wouldn't have purchased a home only to watch the bottom fall out. It took years for that recovery but you can't get back the time lost when you have more years behind than in front of you.

In the meantime, watch for signs, read all you can about what's happening in real estate and hope you don't get sucked down when - or if - a big drop happens like it did before. Slight drops are normal but that one in 2008 knocked the wind out a lot of people. Although, it did make others quite wealthy.

And was not a normal drop anymore than 1929 was normal. Adjustments in a 7 to 10 year period are common and never cause major drops.

[JGC97]

Originally Posted by expatCA

And was not a normal drop anymore than 1929 was normal. Adjustments in a 7 to 10 year period are common and never cause major drops.

2008 didn't compare with 1929. My parents were married in 1938 and the economy was still struggling. They filled me in quite extensively on how life was during the Great Depression. Dad always told me not to get too comfortable because it could - and probably would - happen again. It did but seeing that they both died in 2008, they weren't around to experience it. Thankfully.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by HereOnMars

2008 didn't compare with 1929. My parents were married in 1938 and the economy was still struggling. They filled me in quite extensively on how life was during the Great Depression. Dad always told me not to get too comfortable because it could - and probably would - happen again. It did but seeing that they both died in 2008, they weren't around to experience it. Thankfully.

I agree, 1929 wasfar worse, but 2008 was as unique as 1929 and is not likely to happen again anytime soon unless the economy takes a major hit. Price adjustments are common and anyone hoping for a collapse does not know what he is asking for. The economy would be a mess and they could not buy; just the rich, foreign and citizen, and investors who have the money.

[TR95]

How is everyone forgetting about the 1990-1996 decline? While not as widespread as 2008, it was pretty bad. When the aerospace industry declined the whole South Bay of La crashed 20%+, even the three beach cities. It will happen again when lenders start to loosen lending standards and the cycle will begin. Let’s also not forgot the early 80s as well. I can’t speak as much to that but I’m sure others can.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by TR95

How is everyone forgetting about the 1990-1996 decline? While not as widespread as 2008, it was pretty bad. When the aerospace industry declined the whole South Bay of La crashed 20%+, even the three beach cities. It will happen again when lenders start to loosen lending standards and the cycle will begin. Let’s also not forgot the early 80s as well. I can’t speak as much to that but I’m sure others can.

I lived in SoCal then and it was not as big a deal as 2008 at all and recovered much faster. Ditto the 1980's. Generally every 7 to 10 years prices will flatten and then drop a bit and then climb back up and up. This is normal in just about every decade. Yes, in the 1996 decline some areas were hurt worse than others, but had recovered and kept rising. A drop in prices like we saw in 2008 was far worse than any other drop in decades. An abnormal event. I actually sold my hone in SoCal in 2009 and made 50% more than we paid for it, so it primarily hurt newer buyers and those dumb enough to get a new loan and take out equity.

[TR95]

Originally Posted by expatCA

I lived in SoCal then and it was not as big a deal as 2008 at all and recovered much faster. Ditto the 1980's. Generally every 7 to 10 years prices will flatten and then drop a bit and then climb back up and up. This is normal in just about every decade. Yes, in the 1996 decline some areas were hurt worse than others, but had recovered and kept rising. A drop in prices like we saw in 2008 was far worse than any other drop in decades. An abnormal event. I actually sold my hone in SoCal in 2009 and made 50% more than we paid for it, so it primarily hurt newer buyers and those dumb enough to get a new loan and take out equity.

I lived there as well and can say the South Bay might have got hit harder in 1990-1996 than 2008. There was a house for sale on almost very block it seemed in Manhattan and Hermosa. I could dig up sales on Redfin and show houses that lost 30% of their value. The house that we sold in 2007 only lost about 13-15% of its value from peak through 2012 and then sold for 40% more in 2017 than what we had sold in 2007 which at the time was off about 7% from its peak in early 2006.

I’d say every 10 years history has shown a decent size correction, definitely not just flatten. People don’t understand that housing is so specific down to the exact house and exact block and even side of the street. As I said 1990-1996 was not as widespread as 2008, but it was pretty ugly in The LA area and 20%+ declines were very common even in the so called good areas. On the other hand, our house in coastal N San Diego county only lost 18% of its value from the peak in 2006, so in comparison 1990-1996 was worse in those specific areas. Again, more widespread in 2008 for sure. That’s all I’m saying.

[JGC97]

I agree with expatCA. There have been slumps in the past but nothing as horrific (since the '29 crash) that affected the entire country. And it wasn't just real estate that took a hit. The auto industry was another. Businesses connected to both those industries were hit hard or lost altogether, too. My son who had a home and auto glass company folded. Ultimately, he lost his home, too. No income, no ability to make mortgage payments. Of course, all those foreclosures were just little nuggets for the wealthy to pick up pennies on the dollar. Thus, dividing the have and have nots further apart.