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Can it?? oh yes, totally possible. Do I think it is likely? yes for some, no for others.
San Diego and Philly, maybe.
Phoenix and SA, I highly doubt it.
I think the job situation that Philly faced may strick again in Dallas.
30 years ago 45 percent of the jobs in Delaware Valley was in the City of Philly, now that has dropped to 20%. I think something similar is very possible in Dallas, where a lot of jobs move to the burbs, and the people follow it. Because of that, I think it would be hard to speed up and Catch SA and Phoenix. San diedo and Philly are more likely because they are similarly situated as Dallas.
Phoenix does have some strong burbs, but not as deadly as DFW's burbs. SA is king of its metro. Like Houston in its metro, all the bang is the central city.
I don't see Dallas catching SA or Phoenix, but it might catch up with Philly and SD.
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
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Dallas has already surpassed San Diego as of a few months ago.
San Antonio is too much for Dallas to handle surpassing because San Antonio is both numerically gaining faster than Dallas and also by percentages too. San Antonio also has massive swaths of area that it can annex without any restraint where as Dallas is limited. I think San Antonio has won out against Dallas already and will continue to be larger than Dallas for as long as I can see. San Antonio is a different modal type of city than Dallas altogether.
However, Phoenix is a toss up for the same concerns others have pointed out but its not so much the water but the health of Arizona, if Arizona is economically competitive in the future then Phoenix has a fighting chance of keeping that lead. Otherwise I think first Philadelphia will surpass it, then San Antonio, and then eventually Dallas.
With Philadelphia, I think Dallas surpassing it is pretty much there, Philadelphia is gaining but modestly so and restricted geographically and cannot and probably will not annex any more land. Philadelphia's restrictions will keep it at only modest gains, but I have NO DOUBT at all that Philadelphia eventually will surpass 2 Million point again. But I think it will take a few decades for it to happen though.
I say: Go Dallas, GO!! I think Dallas can do this, and I am confident it will reach higher positions.
Dallas hasn't even passed San Antonio, yet you are so quick to jump to Philly.
Philly is going nowhere. Dallas isn't growing as fast as some other cities, but it is still growing healthily. It is only a matter of time to until it catches up with Philly.
Who cares if it hasn't caught up with SA yet. It doesn't have to catch up to SA to pass Philly as both eventually will.
The last two censuses and the next coming one will be the final nails in Philly's coffin.
after clinging near the top for so long, after those Censuses, Philly will have dropped from the number 4 spot in the country to the number 9th
Philly is locked in, but it is massive enough! Dallas can still grow for a while, but it is reaching it's geographical boundaries.
Annexation is important to provide a large, healthy central core. This allows less in-fighting and more cash flow for bigger projects. 300,000 people for a city core is substantial enough to do a lot of things, but you guys are speaking of cities of a million or two.
I say philly due to the simple fact that pretty much all of the actual city of philly has been maximized. It's actually a pretty small city area wise and it's a northeastern city.
I don't see it passing Phoenix any time soon.
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