Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I would have predicted that. DC has by far the most park land in the footprint. It includes the National Mall and East Potomac Park. Subtract them and see what happens. Details matter!
But this is 2023 and DC is putting over 100,000 people into that donut. There is no possible way any of those cities stays ahead of DC after that happens in the future. The Downtown Core of DC will have gone from 85,396 people to 185,000+ people which is double what Downtown Chicago has right now. Will the other cities grow too? Absolutely! But they don't have the capacity to grow in their footprints like Core Downtown DC does.
What surprising is DC’s employment density is lower too.
Also Downtown Chicago is the fastest growing downtown in the US.
I’d be quite surprised if DC actually gains 100,000 by say 2040 with current population growth rates.
Philly is adding a ton of units too. Boston? We will have to see if rising costs break the NIMBY’s back which seems to be happening slowly.
Also according to that report over the size of Downtown DC Boston probably has ~185,000 today. Not in some imagined future
But this is 2023 and DC is putting over 100,000 people into that donut. There is no possible way any of those cities stays ahead of DC after that happens in the future. The Downtown Core of DC will have gone from 85,396 people to 185,000+ people which is double what Downtown Chicago has right now. Will the other cities grow too? Absolutely! But they don't have the capacity to grow in their footprints like Core Downtown DC does.
I admire your exuberance, but I think you're definitely overestimating the growth potential in DC (particularly regarding the amount of time it will take to achieve such growth) and underestimating growth potential in other cities.
Cities like Boston, Chicago and Philadelphia, for example, have higher peak densities due to the structural layout of developable plots DC (i.e., must less land taken up by "negative space" due to narrower streets, and downtown DC buildings tend to have more institutional plaza-like settings). This doesn't even account for height limits, which clearly affects DC much more.
We're definitely in a downturn nationally for multifamily development, and it's difficult to predict when active proposals will move forward en masse. But once the cycle begins again, the trend in in a city like Philly is definitely towards "Manhattanization" of Center City. This proposal is a prime example: 567' tower with 183 units on only a 21,555 square foot parcel:
You're just not getting this kind of density in Downtown DC.
Basically, the efficiency of developable space is much higher in places like Chicago, Philadelphia, or Boston, due to the traditional urban core layout and the precedent for density.
I admire your exuberance, but I think you're overestimating the growth in DC (particularly regarding the amount of time it will take to achieve such growth) and underestimating growth potential in other cities.
Cities like Boston, Chicago and Philadelphia, for example, have higher peak densities due to the structural layout of developable plots DC (i.e., must less land taken up by "negative space" due to narrower streets, and downtown DC buildings tend to have more institutional plaza-like settings). This doesn't even account for height limits, which clearly affect DC much more.
We're definitely in a downturn nationally for multifamily development, and it's difficult to predict when active proposals will move forward en masse. But once the cycle begins again, the trend in Philly is definitely towards "Manhattanization" of Center City. This proposal is a prime example: 567' tower with 183 units on 21,555 square foot parcel.
Basically, the efficiency of developable space is much higher in places like Chicago, Philadelphia, or Boston, due to the traditional urban core layout and the precedent for density.
Did I predict a timeline for growth? I said future....
Unless you're claiming the over 200 million sq. feet of office in DC will not see significant office-to-residential conversions, I don't really know what you're claiming.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 10-11-2023 at 10:15 AM..
What surprising is DC’s employment density is lower too.
Also Downtown Chicago is the fastest growing downtown in the US.
I’d be quite surprised if DC actually gains 100,000 by say 2040 with current population growth rates.
Philly is adding a ton of units too. Boston? We will have to see if rising costs break the NIMBY’s back which seems to be happening slowly.
Also according to that report over the size of Downtown DC Boston probably has ~185,000 today. Not in some imagined future
So we can subtract 2 sq. miles from the land mass for DC to get the real population density. That is the Federal District where nobody lives including the National Mall, White House, etc. etc.
The proposed state map carves out a 2-mile radius to be called the National Capital Service Area, which includes federal buildings, such as the White House, Capitol, Supreme Court and the National Mall. This becomes the seat of the federal government as defined in the Constitution.
Did I predict a timeline for growth? I said future....
Unless you're claiming the over 200 million sq. feet of office in DC will not see significant office-to-residential conversions, I don't really know what you're claiming.
I'm not necessarily making predictions or bold claims here either. I'm only saying that there's too many factors involved with population and development trends to make any bold claims about the future of any city's downtown population. The only certainty is uncertainty.
Also, office conversions are not quite the panacea that people think. A significant chunk of current office buildings are not very good candidates to become apartments, mostly due to lackluster ROI.
Also, as far as DC, I don't know that CBD living just has the same appeal/cache as opposed to living in neighborhoods like Adams Morgan, Georgetown, Dupont, etc. Maybe the mindset has shifted since I've lived there, but downtown DC just didn't seem to have anywhere near the pull of surrounding neighborhoods in terms of "vibe." It will be interesting to see how the evolution plays out, though.
I'm not necessarily making predictions or bold claims here either. I'm only saying that there's too many factors involved with population and development trends to make any bold claims about the future of any city's downtown population. The only certainty is uncertainty.
Also, office conversions are not quite the panacea that people think. A significant chunk of current office buildings are not very good candidates to become apartments, mostly due to lackluster ROI.
Also, as far as DC, I don't know that CBD living just has the same appeal/cache as opposed to living in neighborhoods like Adams Morgan, Georgetown, Dupont, etc. Maybe the mindset has shifted since I've lived there, but downtown DC just didn't seem to have anywhere near the pull of surrounding neighborhoods in terms of "vibe." It will be interesting to see how the evolution plays out, though.
DC isn't really like the other cities being discussed which are handcuffed by skyscrapers. Office-to-residential conversions in DC are really more so teardowns where the building is demolished to the parking garage and built back up. Here is an example where that just happened:
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
