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Not denying the San Francisco market is in great shape currently. I am also not denying that Transbay will get started, but they've only been doing excavation and foundation work so far, the developers don't want to go vertical unless they have serious tenant commitment. The Comcast Innovation & Technology Center in Philadelphia may get off the ground first only because it already has a tenant taking up 80% of the 1.28 million square feet of office space (Comcast).
Excavation/foundation work is more than can be said for CITC in Philly, a tower that you and every other Philly poster on here is saying is a "done deal".
CITC is likely a done deal, but it hasn't even started construction yet. TB Tower's foundation phase alone is ~12 months, and anyone in LA or NYC, both of which are cities that have recently seen supertalls clear the foundation phase and go vertical, will tell you that it takes a very longggg time for a supertall to even go vertical.
Philly won't see CITC actually rise until at least mid to late 2015 (when is it even "breaking ground"? Add a few months to that for actual work to commence and a good 10-18 months to that for vertical construction), whereas LA's tower will be most of the way if not topped off by then and SF's tower will be well on its way.
Add to that the fact that even if you take TB Tower out of the picture, SF is still a stronger contender for top 5 high rise construction zone in this country. I have only mentioned towers actually in a vertical phase of their existence. I haven't even mentioned all of the other serious proposals still on the table and ready to hit the ground running in the next 1-2 years or the next cycle, depending on what happens with the economy. I'm also excluding recent construction and all low/mid-rises flooding the city's plethora of hot real estate submarkets (Castro anyone? Castro/Dolores Heights alone just saw 5 tower cranes up at once for mid-rises in the 6-10 story range). TB Tower is but one tower, but it is one that is a skyline changer that adds subjectivity points to "projects coming out of the ground" (vs Chicago, which by sheer nature of its size will always have more towers coming out of the ground than any city save for NYC, but won't always be a high % of towers already in place).
Excavation/foundation work is more than can be said for CITC in Philly, a tower that you and every other Philly poster on here is saying is a "done deal".
CITC is likely a done deal, but it hasn't even started construction yet. TB Tower's foundation phase alone is ~12 months, and anyone in LA or NYC, both of which are cities that have recently seen supertalls clear the foundation phase and go vertical, will tell you that it takes a very longggg time for a supertall to even go vertical.
Philly won't see CITC actually rise until at least mid to late 2015 (when is it even "breaking ground"? Add a few months to that for actual work to commence and a good 10-18 months to that for vertical construction), whereas LA's tower will be most of the way if not topped off by then and SF's tower will be well on its way.
No. They expect it to be rising by Fall.
IDK how you're saying it's not a done deal but Transbay is when Transbay has no tenants and Comcast Innovation & Technology Center is going to be 80% owned by Comcast, NOT LEASED. That really makes no sense.
Philly is a completely different market. Office towers aren't proposed and then they look for tenants here. Here in the Philly market, office towers are proposed BECAUSE a specific company needs the space, like Comcast Innovation & Technology Center for Comcast, FMC Tower for FMC Corp., 700 Schuylkill Ave for the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, etc.
They haven't even found a tenant yet. Not a single one. Office developers like to have tenant commitment of at least 50% of the building before starting construction. Not doubting it will happen, because obviously it will, it just hasn't happened yet. And negotiations could take months.
Last edited by RightonWalnut; 03-17-2014 at 07:26 PM..
From SSP's thread on the CITC, where you post frequently:
Groundbreaking: Summer 2014
Completion: Q4 2017
No pictures of any activity yet.
TB tower's completion is set for 2016 (late 2016), which is a year in advance of CITC (which has estimates pre-construction start, whereas BP/Hines at least have some stuff in the ground when they're basing their estimates).
So it would be a little crazy to expect CITC to be "rising by Fall". That would break all supertall construction timeline records.
CTIC will be up before TB - think TB will happen though
expect shovels by June - Steel by October - this puppy is fast tracked and was only made public recently - most aspects are (have been) already set including the Construction Contracts with commits on timing and resources - same cant be said for TB actually - again not saying is the tops but you will surprised - I know I know how could Philly and SF be in the same breath - hard to imagine
Hell the state is already funding the expansion and approval to extend suburban station underground to link it to rail
They haven't even found a tenant yet. Not a single one. Office developers like to have tenant commitment of at least 50% of the building before starting construction. Not doubting it will happen, because obviously it will, it just hasn't happened yet. And negotiations could take months.
Hmm, I'll just give this argument a rest. However, if you care to understand markets other than Philly, then you would know that spec development exists. Also, there is "build to hold", a semi-core strategy. This is often a strategy with apartment development. Development by nature is not "core", however, you can build completely spec in a hot market with a low cost of capital and proforma a 10+ year investment horizon. Look at the sponsors - Boston Properties (a large office REIT), and Hines (I can't recall if it's Hines Global REIT or another pocket). Zuckerman is highly optimistic about this tower and plenty of rumor mills have broken on discussions for possible anchors (Salesforce being the latest and most realistic). The JV spent nearly $200M on the land alone and has already invested tens of millions more on site work. The tower is going to rise on A timeframe, likely the one being presented to the market (delivery in 2016).
Not to mention, across the street a 411,000 SF office tower with 70+ condos on top is under construction completely spec and a half a block down Boston Properties just put up 535 Mission, which is 307,000 SF and 27 stories, completely spec (they just signed a lease with Trulia, news broke today). Tishman Speyer just put up 285,000 SF across the street completely spec and has gone vertical on a new 26 story tower that has over 400,000 SF, also all spec. Lots of SOMA office deals were contemplated spec and are beginning to pre-lease after construction financing has been secured and ground broken (333 Brannan for instance).
I'm not doubting CITC will happen, however, it will be a slow, long drawn out process like every supertall under construction around the world. Ground has not even been broken ceremoniously yet. Usually that precedes ground/foundation/excavation work by some time, and then the ground work itself takes forever.
You and all the other Philly posters are discussing Philly's boom as if it is happening right now, when it's mostly still planned/proposed.
I am simply arguing that Philly is not yet in the discussion, and that cities such as NYC, Miami, Austin, Houston, Seattle, SF, and Boston are seeing considerably more projects coming out of the ground right now. Well, I'd argue Austin has around a similar amount of projects as Philly, but is 1/4 the size with an even smaller fraction of a skyline, so it makes a large impact.
BTW the original Comcast tower took less 3 years years from announcment to completion - its only 15 feet shorter than a super tall - they did that in the same fashion all ducks in a row then just went up - very quickly
and included and larger expansion of the SEPTA underground infrastructure
Last edited by kidphilly; 03-17-2014 at 07:54 PM..
Reason: Added Septa Comment
CTIC will be up before TB - think TB will happen though
So, you think CITC will move from site work to steel frame in a matter of a few months? I think this discussion is basically over on your behalf. Ask folks from NYC and LA how long it takes for supertalls to begin to go vertical after ground has actually been broken (I don't mean ceremoniously broken with the mayor and developers and a gold plated shovel, but cement mixers on site, excavators, drill rigs, etc).
And in the same breath you mention CITC will be directly connected to SEPTA. Add at least half a year if not a full year or more to the construction. The delivery set by Comcast is Q4 2017 assuming all goes to plan (and nothing has even started yet, so very easily not all could go as planned).
BTW the original Comcast tower took less 3 years years from announcment to completion - its only 15 feet shorter than a super tall - they did that in the same fashion all ducks in a row then just went up - very quickly
and included and larger expansion of the SEPTA underground infrastructure
Perhaps. Groundbreaking March 31, 2005, tenants moving in to lower floors by December 2007, and official delivery in June 2008.
Call it 33 months for substantial completion.
So Comcast breaks ground sometime in summer 2014, so 11 quarters from then (33 months) is spring 2017, still behind the TB Tower timetable of full delivery by Q4 2016. And we aren't talking full delivery for CITC, so assuming Salesforce or some other tenant can begin moving in before final delivery of TB Tower, the substantial completion could very well be by Q1 or Q2 of 2016, well in advance of CITC.
I don't think you'll see CITC completed in any fashion before TB Tower barring an economic collapse of SF's tech sector.
Wilshire Grand in LA will be up well before both towers.
Perhaps. Groundbreaking March 31, 2005, tenants moving in to lower floors by December 2007, and official delivery in June 2008.
Call it 33 months for substantial completion.
So Comcast breaks ground sometime in summer 2014, so 11 quarters from then (33 months) is spring 2017, still behind the TB Tower timetable of full delivery by Q4 2016. And we aren't talking full delivery for CITC, so assuming Salesforce or some other tenant can begin moving in before final delivery of TB Tower, the substantial completion could very well be by Q1 or Q2 of 2016, well in advance of CITC.
I don't think you'll see CITC completed in any fashion before TB Tower barring an economic collapse of SF's tech sector.
Wilshire Grand in LA will be up well before both towers.
we shall see I guess - tho me thinks I will be enjoying a beverage on the roof lounge at the Four Seasons reading about construction timing on TB
will be interesting to see in few month which has steel rising sooner
I actually consider myself a realist - many projects proposed in Philly aI am very leary to - there are more than ever I am not - in looking at TB - I think it will be built and wont be a big hole like the Chicago Spire for too much longer but if I were a betting man today TB will not be up before CTIC - this isnt the ACC proposal
and great for LA and the wilshire grand (I like tll buildings, cities more so bring them all on) - umm Freedom tower will be up before all of them - what did that (or does that) have to do with the convo anyway?
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