2015 United States Census Population Estimates for PCSAs (largest, compare, places)

[Trafalgar Law]

One more thing, Wikipedia has updated its Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) list to now finally reflect the 2015 numbers;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_Areas

Unfortunately their Primary Census Statistical Area (PCSA) list still needs updating as it is using the now outdated 2014 numbers;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States

In addition to their Combined Statistical Area (CSA) list, which also needs updating as it is still using the much outdated 2013 numbers;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area

[rnc2mbfl]

Originally Posted by Red John

When you arrive at the site, press "Geography" on the left-hand side menu bar and from there you can choose between MSA and CSA. If MSA, then scroll down their menu of options and press "Metropolitan Statistical Areas - 310" and if CSA, then scroll down to "Combined Statistical Areas - 330". Then return back to the left-hand side toolbar and press "Race and Ethnic Origins," once you've done that a menu should appear center screen and in that menu select the option that says "White, Not Hispanic or Latino" or just "White" and then on center screen select the appropriate year and press "view".

Here is some preliminary statistics I'm working on. Still far from a finished work but I should have the MSAs and CSAs done soon.

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), 2015:
001. New York, NY-NJ-PA MSA: 20,182,305
002. Los Angeles, CA MSA: 13,340,068
003. Chicago, IL-IN-WI MSA: 9,551,031
004. Dallas/Fort Worth, TX MSA: 7,102,796
005. Houston, TX MSA: 6,656,947
006. Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV MSA: 6,097,684
007. Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA: 6,069,875
008. Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL MSA: 6,012,331
009. Atlanta, GA MSA: 5,710,795
010. Boston, MA-NH MSA: 4,774,321
011. San Francisco/Oakland, CA MSA: 4,656,132
012. Phoenix, AZ MSA: 4,574,531
013. Riverside/San Bernardino, CA MSA: 4,489,159
014. Detroit, MI MSA: 4,302,043
015. Seattle, WA MSA: 3,733,580
016. Minneapolis/Saint Paul, MN-WI MSA: 3,524,583
017. San Diego, CA MSA: 3,299,521
018. Tampa, FL MSA: 2,975,225
019. Denver, CO MSA: 2,814,330
020. Saint Louis, MO-IL MSA: 2,811,588
021. Baltimore, MD MSA: 2,797,407
022. Charlotte, NC-SC MSA: 2,426,363
023. Portland, OR-WA MSA: 2,389,228
024. Orlando, FL MSA: 2,387,138
025. San Antonio, TX MSA: 2,384,075
026. Pittsburgh, PA MSA: 2,353,045
027. Sacramento, CA MSA: 2,274,194
028. Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN MSA: 2,157,719
029. Las Vegas, NV MSA: 2,114,801
030. Kansas City, MO-KS MSA: 2,087,471
031. Cleveland, OH MSA: 2,060,810
032. Columbus, OH MSA: 2,021,632
033. Austin, TX MSA: 2,000,860
034. Indianapolis, IN MSA: 1,988,817
035. San Jose, CA MSA: 1,976,836
036. Nashville, TN MSA: 1,830,345
037. Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA-NC MSA: 1,724,876
038. Providence, RI-MA MSA: 1,613,070
039. Milwaukee, WI MSA: 1,575,747
040. Jacksonville, FL MSA: 1,449,481
041. Oklahoma City, OK MSA: 1,358,452
042. Memphis, TN-AR-MS MSA: 1,344,127
043. Louisville, KY-IN MSA: 1,278,413
044. Raleigh, NC MSA: 1,273,568
045. Richmond, VA MSA: 1,271,334
046. New Orleans, LA MSA: 1,262,888
047. Hartford, CT MSA: 1,211,324
048. Salt Lake City, UT MSA: 1,170,266
049. Birmingham, AL MSA: 1,145,647
050. Buffalo, NY MSA: 1,135,230
051. Rochester, NY MSA: 1,081,954
052. Grand Rapids, MI MSA: 1,038,583
053. Tucson, AZ MSA: 1,010,025
054. Honolulu, HI MSA: 998,714
055. Tulsa, OK MSA: 981,005
056. Fresno, CA MSA: 974,861
057. Birdgeport, CT MSA: 948,053
058. Worcester, MA-CT MSA: 935,536
059. Omaha, NE-IA MSA: 915,312
060. Albuquerque, NM MSA: 907,301
061. Bakersfield, CA MSA: 882,176
062. Albany, NY MSA: 881,830
063. Greenville, SC MSA: 874,869
064. Knoxville, TN MSA: 861,424
065. New Haven, CT MSA: 859,470
066. Oxnard/Thousand Oaks, CA MSA: 850,536
067. McAllen, TX MSA: 842,304
068. El Paso, TX MSA: 838,972
069. Allentown, PA-NJ: 832,327
070. Baton Rouge, LA MSA: 830,480
071. Columbia, SC MSA: 810,068
072. Dayton, OH MSA: 800,909
073. North Port/Sarasota, FL MSA: 768,918
074. Greensboro-High Point, NC MSA: 752,157
075. Charleston, SC MSA: 744,526
076. Little Rock, AR MSA: 731,612
077. Stockton, CA MSA: 726,106
078. Akron, OH MSA: 704,243
079. Cape Coral/Naples, FL MSA: 701,982
080. Colorado Springs, CO MSA: 697,856
081. Boise, ID MSA: 676,909
082. Syracuse, NY MSA: 660,458
083. Winston-Salem, NC MSA: 659,330
084. Lakeland, FL MSA: 650,092
085. Wichita, KS MSA: 644,610
086. Ogden, UT MSA: 642,850
087. Madison, WI MSA: 641,385
088. Springfield, MA MSA: 631,982
089. Deltona/Daytona Beach, FL MSA: 623,279
090. Des Moines, IA MSA: 622,899
091. Toledo, OH MSA: 605,956
092. Augusta, GA-SC MSA: 590,146
093. Provo, UT MSA: 585,799
094. Jackson, MS MSA: 578,777
095. Palm Bay, FL MSA: 568,088
096. Harrisburg, PA MSA: 565,006
097. Scranton, PA MSA: 558,166
098. Durham/Chapel Hill, NC MSA: 552,493
099. Youngstown, OH-PA MSA: 549,885
100. Spokane, WA MSA: 547,824
101. Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA: 547,776
102. Modesto, CA MSA: 538,388
103. Lancaster, PA MSA: 536,624
104. Portland, ME MSA: 526,295
105. Fayetteville, AR-MO MSA: 513,559
106. Santa Rosa, CA MSA: 502,146

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Total Population Change April 2010 - July 2015 (5-Years, 3 Months):
001. Houston, TX MSA: + 736,531
002. Dallas/Fort Worth, TX MSA: + 676,582
+ Dallas Metropolitan Division: + 477,120
+ Fort Worth Metropolitan Division: + 199,462
003. New York, NY-NJ-PA MSA: + 614,895
004. Los Angeles, CA MSA: + 511,231
005. Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV MSA + 461,452
006. Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL MSA: + 447,696
+ Miami Metropolitan Division: + 148,277
+ Fort Lauderdale Metropolitan Division: + 148,277
+ West Palm Beach Metropolitan Division: + 102,655
007. Atlanta, GA MSA: + 424,067
008. Phoenix, AZ MSA: + 381,644
009. San Francisco/Oakland, CA MSA: + 320,741
+ Oakland Metropolitan Division: + 205,502
+ San Francisco Metropolitan Division: + 106,258
010. Seattle, WA MSA: + 293,771
011. Austin, TX MSA: + 284,547
012. Denver, CO MSA: + 270,730
013. Riverside/San Bernardino, CA MSA: + 264,308
014. San Antonio, TX MSA: + 241,557
015. Boston, MA-NH MSA: + 221,919
016. Charlotte, NC-SC MSA: + 209,115
017. San Diego, CA MSA: + 204,208
018. Tampa, FL MSA: + 191,982
019. Minneapolis/Saint Paul, MN-WI MSA: + 175,724
020. Las Vegas, NV MSA: + 163,532
021. Portland, OR-WA MSA: + 163,217
022. Nashville, TN MSA: + 159,449
023. Raleigh, NC MSA: + 143,077
024. San Jose, CA MSA: + 139,895
025. Sacramento, CA MSA: + 125,051
026. Columbus, OH MSA: + 119,617
027. Oklahoma City, OK MSA: + 105,460
028. Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA: + 104,532
029. Jacksonville, FL MSA: + 103,885
030. Indianapolis, IN MSA: + 100,735
031. Chicago, IL-IN-WI MSA: + 89,926
032. Baltimore, MD MSA: + 86,832
033. Cape Coral/Naples, FL MSA: + 83,228
034. Salt Lake City, UT MSA: + 82,467
035. Charleston, SC MSA: + 79,883
036. Kansas City, MO-KS MSA: + 78,133
037. New Orleans, LA MSA: + 73,025
038. McAllen, TX MSA: + 67,530
039. North Port/Sarasota, FL MSA: + 66,650
040. Richmond, VA MSA: + 63,254
041. Boise, ID MSA: + 60,348
042. Provo, UT MSA: + 58,913
043. Des Moines, IA MSA: + 53,266
044. Colorado Springs, CO MSA: + 52,245
045. Greenville, SC MSA: + 50,762
046. Fayetteville, AR-MO MSA: + 50,352
047. Omaha, NE-IA MSA: + 49,956
048. Grands Rapids, MI MSA: + 49,643
049. Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA-NC MSA: + 48,059
050. Lakeland, FL MSA: + 47,997
051. Durham/Chapel Hill, NC MSA: + 45,862
052. Ogden, UT MSA: + 45,691
053. Honolulu, HI MSA: + 45,507
054. Fresno, CA MSA: + 44,409
055. Tulsa, OK MSA: + 43,477
056. Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN MSA: + 42,964
057. Louisville, KY-IN MSA: + 42,703
058. Columbia, SC MSA: + 42,591
059. Bakersfield, CA MSA: + 42,545
060. Stockton, CA MSA: + 40,798
061. Madison, WI MSA: + 35,948
062. El Paso, TX MSA: + 34,849
063. Deltona/Daytona Beach, FL MSA: + 32,986
064. Little Rock, AR MSA: + 31,789
065. Bridgeport, CT MSA: + 31,203
066. Tucson, AZ MSA: + 29,762
067. Greensboro-High Point, NC MSA: + 28,359
068. Baton Rouge, LA MSA: 27,980
069. Oxnard/Thousand Oaks, CA MSA: + 27,149
070. Augusta, GA-SC MSA: + 25,273
071. Palm Bay, FL MSA: + 24,710
072. Modesto, CA MSA: + 23,937
073. Knoxville, TN MSA: + 23,845
074. Saint Louis, MO-IL MSA: + 23,840
075. Albuquerque, NM MSA: + 20,226
076. Spokane, WA MSA: + 20,071
077. Milwaukee, WI MSA: + 19,793
078. Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA: + 19,631
079. Memphis, TN-AR-MS MSA: + 19,298
080. Winston-Salem, NC MSA: + 18,753
081. Worcester, MA-CT MSA: + 18,560
082. Santa Rosa, CA MSA: + 18,266
083. Birmingham, AL MSA: + 17,591
084. Lancaster, PA MSA: + 17,176
085. Harrisburg, PA MSA: + 15,533
086. Wichita, KS MSA: + 13,691
087. Portland, ME MSA: + 12,195
088. Providence, RI-MA MSA: + 11,854
089. Jackson, MS MSA: + 11,132
090. Albany, NY MSA: + 11,117
091. Allentown, PA-NJ MSA: + 11,024
092. Springfield, MA MSA: + 10,277
093. Detroit, MI MSA: + 5,793
094. Rochester, NY MSA: + 2,259
095. Dayton, OH MSA: + 1,693
096. Akron, OH MSA: + 1,036
097. Buffalo, NY MSA: -321
098. Hartford, CT MSA: -1,063
099. Syracuse, NY MSA: -2,131
100. New Haven, CT MSA: -3,004
101. Pittsburgh, PA MSA: -3,238
102. Toledo, OH MSA: -4,045
103. Scranton, PA MSA: -5,464
104. Youngstown, OH MSA: -15,919
105. Cleveland, OH MSA: -16,436

I know that some of the the MSAs have had their boundaries changed (mostly enlarged) but I would be interested in knowing how the rankings have changed since 2010.

[Spade]

If Tulsa continues it's growth, it could reach the 1 million milestone by 2020. Honolulu could hit it this year. New Orleans has about 430,000 more people than Baton Rouge. Yet it feels significantly much larger than Baton Rouge. Like a difference of millions instead of under half million.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by Red John

For MSAs:

My personal prediction is that Miami MSA surpasses 6 million (if not, then comes real close to it), the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex MSA surpasses 7 million (easily; probably falling just shy of 7.1 million), and that Washington D.C. MSA takes the 6th spot (handily) and moves up from currently being 7th largest MSA.

The horse race between Boston MSA, San Francisco/Oakland MSA, and Phoenix MSA is starting to get very tight and I feel if they keep pace how they have, they will all wind up around the exact same population in 2020. Hard to tell which one will be in the 10th spot by the next census. Not to mention the Inland Empire (Riverside/San Bernardino MSA) is also creeping into the same range as well, after revitalizing its growth engine following the Great Recession. Looks to be an interesting 4-way dynamic brewing up.

Denver MSA more than likely will hop over Baltimore MSA and Saint Louis MSA both, if not, will come extremely close to doing it. Portland MSA will probably pass Pittsburgh MSA. Austin MSA will probably pass San Jose MSA, Indianapolis MSA, and maybe (but not as likely) the Columbus MSA.

For CSAs:

Not much change for the really big markets. No major benchmarks passed nor much changing in the pecking order. Honolulu may pass 1 million but I expect it to likely just fall a few thousand short of that (and to pass 1 million next year). Perhaps Orlando CSA and Portland CSA switch places but that could go either way as both are exceptionally fast growth (Orlando CSA more so though). New Orleans CSA might pass Hartford CSA, but that looks like one of the only changes for this year.

CSA wise, it seems majority of the places will remain happily wed to their current ranks for at least another year.

So where is HOUSTON, TX in your estimates? Miami and Florida, if you have forgotten, suffered significantly from the real estate bubble of 2008-2012. Second, what industry has really the area has outside of tourism to attract material growth?

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by Red John

Top 20 Combined Statistical Areas (CSA), 2015:
01. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA: 23,723,696
02. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA: 18,679,763
03. Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CSA: 9,923,358
04. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA CSA: 9,625,360
05. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA: 8,713,914
06. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT CSA: 8,152,573
07. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA: 7,504,362
08. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA: 7,183,479
09. Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA: 6,855,069
10. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, FL CSA: 6,654,565
11. Atlanta--Athens-Clarke County--Sandy Springs, GA CSA: 6,365,108
12. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI CSA: 5,319,913
13. Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA: 4,602,591
14. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA: 3,866,768
15. Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA: 3,493,596
16. Denver-Aurora, CO CSA: 3,418,876
17. Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL CSA: 3,129,308
18. Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA: 3,110,906
19. Saint Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL CSA: 2,916,447
20. Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV CSA: 2,648,605

Orlando surpassed Portland (both grew very fast; Orlando more so) and Denver will be passing Cleveland next year. I'll do more lists as well, including more areas also, beyond just the top 20.

The NYC and Philly CSA look kind of funny given the are only 90 miles apart ad Philly is but a few hours from Baltimore. So its like saying the state of NJ, lol, has NO identity of its OWN; its either part of NYC or part of Philly. And to see them put parts of MARYLAND in Philly CSA is dubious because of the greater Baltimore area! I'd say Philly is closer to 6 million.


Then Detroit is somewhat questionable when the core of the CSA has rotted out, dropping 1 MILLION people in the City since 1960 or 60% AND because so much of the auto industry has left for the Sunbelt. Detroit metro is really closer to 4 million CSA and 3 million MSA.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by lovecrowds

The civilian labor force in Denver has dropped by 5,000 people the last 6 months. I know apartment vacancies are up also. It is a very expensive city as the average single family home price is 417,000 according to Denver Metro Association of realtors. The home prices are very high all over the metropolitan area as it doesn't get cheaper until your in Greeley or Colorado Springs which are an hour away.

The main people attracted to Denver are the upper-middle class and rich. I could never afford to live on my own there. I think the only middle-class moving to Denver are those who are single with roomies. Most families moving to Denver have very high housing budgets per the posts I see on the Denver forum.

Orlando is economically crazy right now. They had 4.9% year over year job growth. By sector, 15% increase in construction employment, 9% increase in professional and business services and 4% for health care jobs and leisure and hospitality jobs.

Tampa and Sarasota are also economically doing great now also. With the baby boomers retiring, Florida can only get better.

Orlando itself is not cheap but it lots of affordable suburbs in Osceola County. You can get a nice house in Kissimee, Saint Cloud, Poinciana for 150,000 dollars.

I was in Florida in December and can understand why so many are moving there. Its an amazing state.

Florida is flat, humid, gator and mosquito invested and dependent on retirees and tourism. What Fortune 500 companies are based there? What great universities call it home? It is nice to visit but if it were to be swallowed by a big sink hole, its impact of the economy would not be material long term. Plenty of coastline will still be available.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close

Houston will most definitely go down in growth. My question is how much.... I predict less than 100,000 growth.

If you are considering 2010 to 2015, Houston has grown significantly but if you are talking over 12months then I agree.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

Austin and San Antonio nearing combining?

It wouldnt let me open the link so I cut and pasted the summary on Google News:
Will Austin-San Antonio become the next DFW?

MyStatesman.com-4 hours ago
... the Austin and San Antonio metropolitan areas, according to U.S. Census ... The forward planning might be well-advised, experts say, as the area's population growth is expected to ...

Interesting.

No ATX and SAT aren't going to be D/FW anytime soon or D.C/Baltimore or MSP. it is SEVENTY miles from downtown ATX to downtown San Antonio. Dallas to FW is only 30 miles. D.C. to Baltimore is 40 mils. S.F. to San Jose is 40-50 miles. NY to Philly is 90 miles. Even Providence to Boston is 55 miles. DFW share a lot of infrastructure and attractions. D.C. Baltimore are even more distinct. Now San Jose and SF/Oakland have more commonality.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by Red John

I've looked at the components of Houston's population growth numerous times, so it is never been a surprise to me to see it over 100,000 even with the oil bust in full force. It gets 100,000 people just off newborn babies and immigrants resettling from refugee stricken areas of the world.

I never expected an acceleration though. I expected a minor cool-down, because while domestic migration in Houston would go down, I expected its immigration to go up. Houston for the last 8 years has actually been getting more Central American immigrants than Mexican immigrants, primarily due to Central America falling apart and becoming an extremely violent and unlivable place in the world. Which has led to a mass of refugee resettlement into Houston in particular. Last year Houston added 63,000 people who were Central American of its total 156,000 people it added. To put into perspective and each year that grows. This population growth doesn't really correspond with economy, so I always expected Houston to be north of 125,000 people per year.

What I didn't expect was an acceleration but I do expect it to cool-down for 2016 though. I think it will come down to 130,000 a year (maybe even 125,000 a year), obviously a very steep slowdown (as it shaves nearly 35,000 - 40,000 a year) but for Houston that cool-down is what it did in decades past as a boom.

Houston and Atlanta are two different types of cities when it comes to population growth. Their growth drivers are very different. Atlanta has always been a migrant destination within the United States and the recession had capped some of that, which is why when its economy took a hit, so did its population growth. Houston's population growth is fed largely off the tandem of natural increase and immigration, with domestic migration a much further back component. Until the recent 2-3 years of the post-recession oil boom, Houston was never a major domestic migrant destination for a Sunbelt city. It was just an average one. Atlanta's growth drivers are domestic migrants from the Northeastern United States, Midwestern United States, Southeastern United States, and Florida and then followed more distantly by natural increase and immigration.

What benefits Atlanta is it has no Dallas/FW north or east of it to grab some of its growth. Charlotte is a one trick pony town (Banking) as is Nashville (Country music/Gov't jobs). And then you have travel another EIGHT hours SOUTH to Tampa/Orlando to find a region with a cosmopolitan lifestyle. Atlanta being home to Delta and several big companies and good universities also gives it an edge over Florida metros and Charlotte and the whole state of Alabama. Houston has two good colleges but Dallas has SMU, TCU, UT Arlington and then they must compete with Tech heavy/Scenic Austin and the Latin flavor of San Antonio.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by the resident09

Stunning.

Crowded, expensive, worse traffic, and politicians. You can do that comparison for many cities WEST of the Mississippi. Natural barriers to sprawl are fewer, so no need to pile everyone into a denser area. Overall, the Mid-Atlantic/NE corridor has seen a 50 year loss of residents to places like Houston. That is not likely to change with more immigration to the Sun Belt coming from the Pacific Rim and Latin America