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kidphilly doen't know for a FACT that counties are going to be added to Philly's MSA, he's just presuming based on various research on commuting patterns(?), or other data of the like, that there is a possibility that Philly's MSA will regain some of its lost counties. Of course, I wouldn't put too much trust into wether it will happen, as ive not seen any concrete evidence that Philly will have those counties again, but we'll see come census results time.
You are right that we will have to wait and see, but some estimates would put some back and others very close - so we will see, but if added it would better provide the correct estimate of the Philly area. (I have always felt the MSA and CSA were shortchanged by at least a million)
Also to Chiatldal - I forgot Cape May (NJ), if Atlantic or Cumberland become again part of the Philly MSA, Cape May becomes part of the CSA again as it was before - it meets CSA commuter patterns to both already
I see. The reason I ask is I wonder if some current CSAs in NC will be re-orgamized as MSAs as they were prior to the new MSA standards, such as Greensboro and Winston-Salem becoming one MSA again and Raleigh and Durham as well. I also wonder if Charlotte will gain more counties to add to its MSA.
I see. The reason I ask is I wonder if some current CSAs in NC will be re-orgamized as MSAs as they were prior to the new MSA standards, such as Greensboro and Winston-Salem becoming one MSA again and Raleigh and Durham as well. I also wonder if Charlotte will gain more counties to add to its MSA.
That I am not sure, if i get bored and find time will see what I can find out, but I am not as familiar with the counties and towns to tie the demographics together
though as stated by southmore these are estimates and will not match exactly the Census data, and they (Census bureau) also can change designation criteria - they actually have noted references to Mercer county and specific discussions from the last census where more than half of the commitee felt the "re-assignment was inaccurate in a real-world sense" (direct quote) so things can change regardless
the 6.5 is pretty easy to get to, Atlantic (NJ) and Mercer (NJ) back in (were before 2000 and patterns shifted back again), Cumberland (NJ), highly likely, and Berks (PA), also highly likely. (all added would be over 7 million on MSA)
others for CSA are Northampton (PA), which pulls all of the Allentown/Bethleham to CSA, Kent in DE (Dover MSA to Philly CSA) and Lancaster MSA to part of the Philly CSA.
again all wont happen but there is good chance half will, with remainder in 2020
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
As you like to say - commuter patterns - that are rapidly changing and the people are already there. I said all wont be added but there are large population counties right on the cusp. we will see but the more i look at numbers the more it appears some of these counties may move back to the Philly relationship based on the 2000 census criteria. And projecting out to 2020 it looks like even more - the people are already here
MSAs require more commuting than CSAs, how are these places going to just pass and while not even being part of the CSA but to all sudden being a part of the MSA? Rome, Athens and Dalton MSAs and Jackson, county makes a nice little 400K it's like me speculating about them being a part of Atlanta’s MSA mean while they aren’t even apart of the CSA area yet. “the people are already here†you keep saying this “which is a meaningless reference to density†but the commuting is not. And you haven‘t posted anything to given reason for such a radical projection. I'm reading stuff that said Houston will pass Philly, heck stuff that said Houston will be the 5th largest metro in 2025, and it seem like next year. But yet your telling me Philly is going to pass DFW by 2020 which is currently and projected to remain at 4th. So I'm a little skeptical..
8 Million, would be the goal of the Dallas 2020 census, but the 800K in Lancaster directly bordering the Philly MSA may be added by then, finally the census criteria may actually work to Philly's benefit
You won't have to worry about Dallas for that long. Houston will have annexed it by then right Ladarron?
kidphilly doen't know for a FACT that counties are going to be added to Philly's MSA, he's just presuming based on various research on commuting patterns(?), or other data of the like, that there is a possibility that Philly's MSA will regain some of its lost counties. Of course, I wouldn't put too much trust into wether it will happen, as ive not seen any concrete evidence that Philly will have those counties again, but we'll see come census results time.
But don't those counties (Mercer, Trenton, etc.) still have strong commuters to NYC? How will NYC lose those counties, if more people from there commute into NYC than Philly?
But don't those counties (Mercer, Trenton, etc.) still have strong commuters to NYC? How will NYC lose those counties, if more people from there commute into NYC than Philly?
That is a misnomer, it missed MSA by .8% last census which superceeds CSA, but the dynamic is county % form the Philly MSA, the CSA was a choice, by the census because surprisingly the decision led to a pay increase or stipend. nearly 50% of all workers in Trenton either work of have workers from the philly MSA, the NY connection was 15.6% in the last census, I dont want to beat the dead horse but it was a joke.
And to CHIATLDAL - the additional 1 million on MSA were all CSA (Atlantic (prior MSA current CSA), Cumberland (CSA to MSA), Mercer (back as MSA) before, plus Berks, Reading MSA also will most likely move from CSA to MSA. all these moves will also add additional CSA counties
The wild cards will be Northhampton more likely to CSA (That would add the Allentown/Beth Metro (nearly 900K to the CSA) and Kent in Deleware, the Dover MSA which could also be added to the CSA
That is a misnomer, it missed MSA by .8% last census which superceeds CSA, but the dynamic is county % form the Philly MSA, the CSA was a choice, by the census because surprisingly the decision led to a pay increase or stipend. nearly 50% of all workers in Trenton either work of have workers from the philly MSA, the NY connection was 15.6% in the last census, I dont want to beat the dead horse but it was a joke.
And to CHIATLDAL - the additional 1 million on MSA were all CSA (Atlantic (prior MSA current CSA), Cumberland (CSA to MSA), Mercer (back as MSA) before, plus Berks, Reading MSA also will most likely move from CSA to MSA. all these moves will also add additional CSA counties
The wild cards will be Northhampton more likely to CSA (That would add the Allentown/Beth Metro (nearly 900K to the CSA) and Kent in Deleware, the Dover MSA which could also be added to the CSA
It is all commuter patterns my friend
Exactly. So why do you think Philadelphia is going to get Mercer back? The decision "led to a pay increase???" Are you saying it was a conspiracy? Are you drinking that rainrock koolaid?
Fact. More residents of Mercer County work in the NYC-Newark core counties than in the Philadelphia-Camden core counties. Census Journey-to-Work data show that. I promise. I ran the numbers and posted them for rainrock in another thread ages ago, or you can run the numbers yourself.
The rest of your suppositions are plausible, if not quite likely. Atlantic City could easily become part of the CSA, but Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton and Lancaster seem less likely. I haven't run the J2W numbers for those areas, though, so maybe the bond is stronger than I would assume.
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right Ladarron?
