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Exactly. So why do you think Philadelphia is going to get Mercer back? The decision "led to a pay increase???" Are you saying it was a conspiracy? Are you drinking that rainrock koolaid?
Fact. More residents of Mercer County work in the NYC-Newark core counties than in the Philadelphia-Camden core counties. Census Journey-to-Work data show that. I promise. I ran the numbers and posted them for rainrock in another thread ages ago, or you can run the numbers yourself.
The rest of your suppositions are plausible, if not quite likely. Atlantic City could easily become part of the CSA, but Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton and Lancaster seem less likely. I haven't run the J2W numbers for those areas, though, so maybe the bond is stronger than I would assume.
Was true and still maybe, but the MSA criteria actually can also be established by greater than 25% of emloyees in the county from another MSA, meaning the largest source of Mercer employees commute from Bucks and Burlington counties. I went back through the criteria and having just missed this in he last census it is 50/50 to qualify this census (And the MSA designation based on the rules always trumps CSA). There are far more people combined (either working in or commuting from) interacting with the Mercer market from the Philly MSA than NYC, always has been.
I am not drinking the coolaide, just did some additional research, I do not believe any are done deals and will see with the new data. And on conspiracy, really no, I would have opted for the pay increase too, it still met the criteria. The reason why it went the way of NYC CSA last census was a US steel that closed its doors, huge employer in Bucks county in '98. Historically Trenton always was part of the Philly Metro, and without that closure prior, the last census would have combined NYC and Philly as one CSA based on the criteria (There were 16,000 Mercer residents that lost their Bucks county jobs (Fairless Steel Works) directly before the last census). Oddly the CSA affiliation to NY would probably still hold. This is the other part, Mercer could qualify back into the Philly MSA and then be the CSA link. It almost happened in 2000.
Last edited by kidphilly; 07-30-2010 at 05:35 AM..
Also the weird thing on CSA designation is it only requires one county to create the link - why I still believe unless the criteria is changed NYC and Philly will be combined, less likely this census but more probable in 2020. And Mercer would only represent <5% of the Philly MSA and <2% of the NYC MSA but it only takes one county to combine
The current interaction of DC/Balt is less than 7% of total Baltimore and less 2% of the total DC MSA as an example - that is already combined
Either way, Atlantic (back), Cumberland, and Berks, should all move to the Philly MSA, that is ~ 1 million added back to the MSA, plus Cape May County added back to the CSA again. Kent is iffy in DE to CSA, Lancaster prob not this census, and Northampton may bring the Allentown Bethleham back to CSA
Realistically even without Mercer, Philly MSA could be 6.9-7.0 Million and CSA potentially over 8 million, they are very real possibilities. But we will see...
That is the weird thing, people in this area have bitched about these populations and we actually may get them back
Last edited by kidphilly; 07-30-2010 at 05:43 AM..
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
10,138 posts, read 16,035,535 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
Oh and one other thing
Houston -1
Philadelphia +1
Got to love Ed Wade as the GM of the Astros, plus he wrote us a check for 11 million
3 headed monster this WS, Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt - thoses knees are little wobbly up in the Bronx
LOL wait whats the +/- 1 for? Baseball or metropolitan ranks? Greater Houston is still behind Greater Philadelphia by latest stats (2 years ago).
Ah no way! If it's about Baseball then okay, but '6ers for another thing coming to them in any game versus Rockets this year. I don't know about the Texans/Eagles though.
LOL wait whats the +/- 1 for? Baseball or metropolitan ranks? Greater Houston is still behind Greater Philadelphia by latest stats (2 years ago).
Ah no way! If it's about Baseball then okay, but '6ers for another thing coming to them in any game versus Rockets this year. I don't know about the Texans/Eagles though.
The Philles traded for Roy Oswalt yesterday - cant wait for October and November baseball again this year!
LOL wait whats the +/- 1 for? Baseball or metropolitan ranks? Greater Houston is still behind Greater Philadelphia by latest stats (2 years ago).
Ah no way! If it's about Baseball then okay, but '6ers for another thing coming to them in any game versus Rockets this year. I don't know about the Texans/Eagles though.
Didn't see the Rockets on this list but did see the Sixers twice
I'm not really a Rockets supporter, normally Lakers & Bulls are my top 1 & 2 teams. And also sum up my Western/Eastern Conference favorites.
And I do give 76ers props for having more Championships than the Rockets under their belt, but they are going to need some good players if they want to stop the Rockets this year, Yao will finally be playing again- despite considering a retirement soon.
But yes, odds are against you guys at the moment. We'll have to see though, one thing about any of Philly's teams, if you underestimate them, then your 6 feet under.
The Blackhawks almost learned that one the hard way.
Hey, if it comes down to '6ers and Heat, I am for the 76ers! Anyone besides Miami for 2011 Champs!
I'm not really a Rockets supporter, normally Lakers & Bulls are my top 1 & 2 teams. And also sum up my Western/Eastern Conference favorites.
And I do give 76ers props for having more Championships than the Rockets under their belt, but they are going to need some good players if they want to stop the Rockets this year, Yao will finally be playing again- despite considering a retirement soon.
But yes, odds are against you guys at the moment. We'll have to see though, one thing about any of Philly's teams, if you underestimate them, then your 6 feet under.
The Blackhawks almost learned that one the hard way.
Hey, if it comes down to '6ers and Heat, I am for the 76ers! Anyone besides Miami for 2011 Champs!
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