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^^^ oh I forgot completely about Berks (the Reading MSA, also very likely to meet the 25% in this Census which has become a bedroom neighborhood of KOP commuters) another 650K
Philly on the basis of few thousand coummuters could actually go over 7.5 million (MSA) with counties being re-assigned
Also Cumberland county in southern NJ, is very close (another 300K) an Kent in Deleware (Dover) is also gaining with the also recent completion of the highway that heads back up to the work complexes south of Wilmington. These are not as likely for the 2010 re-assignment but based on changes from 2000 would project into the 2020 number - all told today that would be an MSA population of nearly 10 million today. They all will not happen but they are all getting closer, and the other thing to remember is that all the people already live here and the sq miles of all thoses added (the nearly 10 million) would still only be 68% that of the current DFW MSA sq milage, just for perspective. But the commuter rates in all are increasing as the overall area has become more sprawled
Last edited by kidphilly; 07-29-2010 at 12:15 PM..
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
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Kidphilly: Is this coming out from New York City's MSA/CSA, if so wouldn't that impact them to a population loss from last projections?
To whoever said what I am about to ask: Since when does DFW MSA have 6.8 million? That's the CSA, is it not? Last I check DFW MSA was still 6.4 million. Or am I not understanding something here?
Kidphilly: Is this coming out from New York City's MSA/CSA, if so wouldn't that impact them to a population loss from last projections?
To whoever said what I am about to ask: Since when does DFW MSA have 6.8 million? That's the CSA, is it not? Last I check DFW MSA was still 6.4 million. Or am I not understanding something here?
Only Mercer is at play from NY - that as of the last Census was moved from the Philly MSA. The other counties, some Philly CSA now are not at all associated with the NY metro - Cumberland and Atlantic (Cape May for CSA) in S Jersey, Kent in Deleware, and Berks and Northhampton (Lancaster CSA) in PA. All will not be added in this Census, probably 1-3 for MSA and another 1 or 2 the CSA. will be interesting. Three of counties had significant commuter pattern changes since the last census related to highway completion. We will see but the more i look at the numbers the more I see many counties potentially being re-assigned. Odd thing is most is not due to growth in population, the people already existed, it is just a change in commuter patterns. But they are already close and the boost to the MSA could be over a million. Also the counties being discussed are all less than an hour drive to philly proper, some less than a half hour
Ah but was just reading the Allentown/Bethleham area, already part of the media market is also right on the cusp of meeting the 25% commuter cusp, that would be another million, oh and it is just about as close to philly as is FT Worth to Dallas
like someone else said it really doesnt matter because the people have always lived here anyway - but I would chuckle, a few thousand commuters would be the differance of an MSA at 6 to 8 million folks
8 Million, would be the goal of the Dallas 2020 census, but the 800K in Lancaster directly bordering the Philly MSA may be added by then, finally the census criteria may actually work to Philly's benefit
2020 MSA at 9+ million - it would be 8.7 today with just a few thousand more commuters, and with development along route 30 in chester county lancaster is growing pretty consistently mostly with commuters back in to downingtown and exton - they finished the highway since the last census, it would make me chuckle that highway development would gove the philly boosts similar to the sunbelts, the people are already here, just need the commuters rates to slightly increase
I doubt this, as of right now philly’s larger CSA is less than a 100K from DFW’s MSA, and as you know DFW’s is growing 130k annually. Philly's CSA is 6,533,122 now but yet the area you speak of to be the MSA is a larger area of 8.7 mil now, you say. How is the MSA suddenly going to surpass the CSA in population and commuting area? Philly has to turn that area of 6.5 mil from the CSA to it’s MSA first. The area which you speak of might be the future CSA not the MSA but your Projection is too hard to believe.
I guess I shall keep asking until someone answers my question, but how do you know which counties are being added to a given MSA?
Final numbers wont be in for a while, it is based on MSA and CSA assignment, there is a 50 some page doument that outlines assignment, suggested reading when you can't fall asleep. I am basing the estimates on some info I can access from commercial real estate demogrpahics (on worker residences). I am estimaing and projecting, but am likely close, these could go either way, so we have to wait until the final numbers come out. But a quick take-away is the philly metro has become more like the sunbelts on commuter patterns, intertwining more the outlying counties on commuter patterns. the biggest difference is these counties already had large developed populations (in the millions).
I doubt this, as of right now philly’s larger CSA is less than a 100K from DFW’s MSA, and as you know DFW’s is growing 130k annually. Philly's CSA is 6,533,122 now but yet the area you speak of to be the MSA is a larger area of 8.7 mil now, you say. How is the MSA suddenly going to surpass the CSA in population and commuting area? Philly has to turn that area of 6.5 mil from the CSA to it’s MSA first. The area which you speak of might be the future CSA not the MSA but your Projection is too hard to believe.
As you like to say - commuter patterns - that are rapidly changing and the people are already there. I said all wont be added but there are large population counties right on the cusp. we will see but the more i look at numbers the more it appears some of these counties may move back to the Philly relationship based on the 2000 census criteria. And projecting out to 2020 it looks like even more - the people are already here
I doubt this, as of right now philly’s larger CSA is less than a 100K from DFW’s MSA, and as you know DFW’s is growing 130k annually. Philly's CSA is 6,533,122 now but yet the area you speak of to be the MSA is a larger area of 8.7 mil now, you say. How is the MSA suddenly going to surpass the CSA in population and commuting area? Philly has to turn that area of 6.5 mil from the CSA to it’s MSA first. The area which you speak of might be the future CSA not the MSA but your Projection is too hard to believe.
the 6.5 is pretty easy to get to, Atlantic (NJ) and Mercer (NJ) back in (were before 2000 and patterns shifted back again), Cumberland (NJ), highly likely, and Berks (PA), also highly likely. (all added would be over 7 million on MSA)
others for CSA are Northampton (PA), which pulls all of the Allentown/Bethleham to CSA, Kent in DE (Dover MSA to Philly CSA) and Lancaster MSA to part of the Philly CSA.
again all wont happen but there is good chance half will, with remainder in 2020
I guess I shall keep asking until someone answers my question, but how do you know which counties are being added to a given MSA?
kidphilly doen't know for a FACT that counties are going to be added to Philly's MSA, he's just presuming based on various research on commuting patterns(?), or other data of the like, that there is a possibility that Philly's MSA will regain some of its lost counties. Of course, I wouldn't put too much trust into wether it will happen, as ive not seen any concrete evidence that Philly will have those counties again, but we'll see come census results time.
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