[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

You might get your wish in the short term - lol

Although I doubt there will be a major drought anytime soon (droughts take a long time to get into and out of)...there does look to be a pattern change starting this weekend (Sunday/Monday) which looks to feature drier and warm to down right hot conditions. By early next week, a early season Bermuda High builds in off South Carolina and pumps warm temps with mostly sunny skies up the East Coast from Tue through Thur:


Then another high might build in next weekend (13th - 14th) and the first shot of really hot temperatures might spread into the Tri-State area. You might need your AC already - lol:

Not so fast. Another gully-washer next Wednesday through Friday. My app is showing 70°for Tuesday but that is looking to be a one-day wonder. I suspect the soaking rain cycle we have now continues intermittently through May and even June. Some of the last emergences from strong El Niño were 1973, 1983, 1998 and 2010. Only 2010 showed a real abrupt stop to the soaking rains in late March. In 1973 they mostly stopped at end of May, but end of June had one. 1983's didn't really dry out until late June, 1998 was miserable through May. Even next week's warmth and sunshine keeps getting pushed back and is shrinking.

[Cambium]

December or April?



Today is Day #5 in a row with the max temp staying below normal

11 of the last 15 days the max temp has not been above normal at BDR

[JayCT]

There is a thread now about the earthquake. Let’s keep the discussion of it there. JayCT, Moderator

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

Not so fast. Another gully-washer next Wednesday through Friday. My app is showing 70°for Tuesday but that is looking to be a one-day wonder. I suspect the soaking rain cycle we have now continues intermittently through May and even June. Some of the last emergences from strong El Niño were 1973, 1983, 1998 and 2010. Only 2010 showed a real abrupt stop to the soaking rains in late March. In 1973 they mostly stopped at end of May, but end of June had one. 1983's didn't really dry out until late June, 1998 was miserable through May. Even next week's warmth and sunshine keeps getting pushed back and is shrinking.

It can be really hard to match past El Nino years and the precip patterns to what might happen. Agree, there were extended wet April - early June periods in Tri-State area during some years, but there were dry ones as well. The El Nino of 2014-2016 was an example: April 2015 in Connecticut had below normal rainfall, and May 2015 had just 1 inch of rain all month. So it can go different ways it seems.

No doubt, Tue is the warm day in the next 7 days in the Tri-State area, CT will be in/close to 70 F :





As far as after that...(and we know how risky long term predections are)...CDC seems to be pointing to drier times near mid month (in fact they actually mention the "middle Atlantic" in their discussion). They are expecting a trough to build around the West Coast by the 11- 13th, and this would create ridging in the eastern USA, with the jet still near the far northern states. Here is their output for that time, you can see from CT to the North Carolina/South Carolina state line has below normal rainfall. Of course, this is just a forecast:

[Cambium]

Can't get this in Winter but in Spring we can...

Since March 21st (16 days), Only 4 days had an above normal max temperature. Hard to ignore that.



No wonder why I keep needing this.

[simonusa3]

What is really interesting, is how we can have these periods of below normal temps...even in record warm seasons. This past winter was one of the warmest on record, yet we had some (maybe very short) periods of cooler/colder weather.

Even if you break it down into weeks, the last two weeks have been below normal...yet the last 4 weeks (mostly the month of March) were so warm that the pushed up the averages so high, that even several cooler than normal days late in the month could not stop it from being near record warm. The last 30 days have been 4 to 6 F above normal regionally; crazy:

[simonusa3]

I was just checking last date of last freeze data...and it looks like it is April 6th for NWS Bridgeport and April 25th for Bradley. If this cooler than normal April continues, I would guess the planting season will be delayed at least in northern Connecticut.


As the month rolls on, this map will become more important

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

It can be really hard to match past El Nino years and the precip patterns to what might happen. Agree, there were extended wet April - early June periods in Tri-State area during some years, but there were dry ones as well. The El Nino of 2014-2016 was an example: April 2015 in Connecticut had below normal rainfall, and May 2015 had just 1 inch of rain all month. So it can go different ways it seems.

No doubt, Tue is the warm day in the next 7 days in the Tri-State area, CT will be in/close to 70 F :

There are some measures that count early 2014 as a moderate La Niña. I consider ENSO to have been neutral through early to mid 2015. Spring 2016 would really be the emergence period, and I don't recall 2016 or 2017 to have been exception concerning precipitation. I think there is a heavy likelihood of a dying Niño to be wet, as the coastal storm pattern takes time to die.

Originally Posted by simonusa3

As far as after that...(and we know how risky long term predections are)...CDC seems to be pointing to drier times near mid month (in fact they actually mention the "middle Atlantic" in their discussion). They are expecting a trough to build around the West Coast by the 11- 13th, and this would create ridging in the eastern USA, with the jet still near the far northern states. Here is their output for that time, you can see from CT to the North Carolina/South Carolina state line has below normal rainfall. Of course, this is just a forecast:

We could use some warm and dry weather.

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

We could use some warm and dry weather.

No doubt, the last week had been rainy and cooler than normal. The low up off Maine will move away tonight into Sunday and we will lose the cool cyclonic flow that brought us this weather. High pressure builds across the East Coast later Sunday and should dominate at least into early late Tuesday/early Wednesday. A cold front/and low far to the west should pass through Thur – Fri, then another high should build in next weekend.

In fact, my guess is that while Mon – Tue will certainly be warm and sunny (60’s then perhaps near/low 70’s F)…the high progged next weekend looks closer and stronger with a deep southwest flow. So we could really feel warm to hot temps and the very first bouts of humid tropical air next Sunday/Monday. I think the models are underestimating temps next Sun/Mon (15th/16th).








Will be interesting to see how it plays out

[jbgusa]

^^^^^^^
Usually Central Park, and Connecticut, away from the shore, gets its first run at 80° during April. There is an occasional 90+ day, even a few heat waves with three days or more above 90, even up to 96° as in 1976 and 2002. 2009 had a less extreme heat wave, but there were no others until August. I do remember strolling with my fiancé, a month before our wedding, with my uncle, his wife and my parents on April 7, 1991, a 90° day. at that time that was a record. We broke that record by a day in 2010, where did hit 91°. Both 2010 and 1991 were torrid summers. In 1990 I remember it hitting 90° in late April and by calling my girlfriend, now wife to come down with the outdoors at Rio Grande in New York City. More usually, May marks the first stab at 90+.

For some reason, there are a bunch of record highs around 96° in mid April, a pattern that does not recur until the latter half of May. I assume the reason is with the absence of vegetation, the sun can bake the unprotected ground. This year, leftover water from the excessive rainfall will probably us from hitting 90° plus until sometime in May or June.