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Old 02-19-2024, 03:31 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,590 posts, read 75,571,450 times
Reputation: 16657

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RoundTableKnight View Post
Just give me one more 4-6 inch snow "event" and I'm good for the season.
Since nothing is happening next 10 days that would mean you would have to get it in March. I have grown to HATE March cold and snow. Give me 60s and sun in March!

From 2015-2019 March was the snowiest month 4 of those 5 winters.

8 of the last 11 years March has been snowier than December.

From 2014 to 2019, 6 of 7 Marchs ending up with below normal temperatures
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Old 02-19-2024, 07:45 PM
 
Location: East Coast USA
1,019 posts, read 345,581 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RoundTableKnight View Post
Just give me one more 4-6 inch snow "event" and I'm good for the season.

The problem with the end game of winter (meaning March) is that it can very so much. March can be crazy, but of course (like the computer models) it depends on which set of March’s you want to look at?

The last 4 Marchs (2020 – 2023) ended up with ABOVE normal temperatures.

If you put all the Marches from 2020 to 2023 together (124 days!) there has only been measurable snow on just 2 days! That’s right, just two 2 DAYS!

The normal March snowfall is 7 inches. Of the last 14 Marches (from 2010 – 2023 last year)…only 5 had above normal snowfall – the rest (9 ) had below normal snowfall.

In terms of the raw numbers and their averages…mean temps/daily highs/daily lows…shoot up like a rocket in March – we start the month with a daily high of 43 F and end with a daily high of 52 F. More importantly, the average lows by mid-March are ABOVE freezing. It gets really tough to get snow, or if it does fall, it’s gone in just a few days (sometimes gone in just 1 day – lol). The old-time meteorologists used to say, that the “back of winter is broken by late February”. What they meant by that is anyone’s guess. Lol.

Looking at more realistic (short term) outlooks, CPC center's hot off the press outlook ...is thinking we start early March with above normal temperatures on the East Coast:





Confused...lol...so am I. I guess we won't know what the final end game of winter 2023/2024 has in store until we go through it.
Attached Thumbnails
Connecticut Weather Discussion 4-610219.jpg  
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Old 02-20-2024, 04:30 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,590 posts, read 75,571,450 times
Reputation: 16657
I forgot it's still winter. LOL

Waking up to teens this morning. Didn't load the stove last night so my heat is running.

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Old 02-20-2024, 06:54 AM
 
Location: East Coast USA
1,019 posts, read 345,581 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve View Post
So much for the 970mb blizzard lol. Euro trash strike again

I do agree that the models often overhype many weather variables, especially snow. I think that’s even more true in winter climates like ours in the Tri-State area where snow is often a close call. Not to knock NWS (they have a difficult job, I’m sure), but I even think area NWS offices often overplay their hand in fleeting winters like this one, because they know it will be over soon.

Having said that, I think the real culprit, is how forecasters today use the weather models; Many just go “model shopping” to find a model that shows what they think will happen, or worse – what they hope will happen. In late winter/early spring, the players on the board (highs/lows/storms/fronts…etc) move even faster, and the lines between things are even more extreme. Just off to the north or south an air mass can be much warmer/colder. It’s not like in summer for example, when weather patterns move slower and general circulation is much are more stable.

A good example is next Wed: Some models are showing a serious surge of subtropical warmth heading up the East Coast (60’s F into the Tri-State, 70’s into Delaware and Virginia). Yet, some of the models for the exact same time are showing mid 40’s F across Connecticut. The smart forecaster (especially this far out) should logically blend these different outcomes when making a forecast? The problem is most forecasters don’t do that, they take one extreme or another. I heard on a radio station early this morning (broadcasting from Long Island I think) that said NYC could get near 65 F next Wed. I got in and checked (I was excited, spring is around the bend!)… the forecast I looked at showed low 40’s F in NYC/southern Connecticut. LOL. So what's the blend...maybe we get to low 50's F next Wed.







The models are only a tool...and as good as the user.
Attached Thumbnails
Connecticut Weather Discussion 4-pic2tyt6.jpg   Connecticut Weather Discussion 4-picaht.jpg  

Last edited by simonusa3; 02-20-2024 at 07:06 AM..
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Old 02-20-2024, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,590 posts, read 75,571,450 times
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Everytime I step outside I'm saying "wow its cold". Guess I'm not expecting it today. Seems like the sun is warming things up but look at these temps at 2pm?! BDR at freezing???



Did you know there are Pine Barrens in MA as well?

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Old 02-20-2024, 05:28 PM
 
Location: East Coast USA
1,019 posts, read 345,581 times
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Looks like not much change in the forecast into the weekend. Rain on Friday, then clearing on Sat with sunshine:

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210016
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides to our north and east tonight and remains in
control as it weakens into Thursday. A frontal system will move
across the area late Thursday night into Friday, followed by high
pressure building in for the start of the weekend. The high moves
offshore on Sunday with the potential for multiple frontal systems
to impact the area Sunday through Tuesday

Attached Thumbnails
Connecticut Weather Discussion 4-total-snowfall.jpg  

Last edited by simonusa3; 02-20-2024 at 05:53 PM..
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Old 02-21-2024, 06:58 AM
 
Location: East Coast USA
1,019 posts, read 345,581 times
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Looks like the rain on Thursday night/Friday will be in and out a bit faster according to NWS forecast. Skies should clear out by Friday night and weekend looks dry and sunny. Watch for some light flooding Friday morning with snow melt and rain (most locations will not go below freezing from Thur until early Sat morning). Otherwise sunny and dry into next week:


Attached Thumbnails
Connecticut Weather Discussion 4-nwer.jpg  
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Old 02-21-2024, 03:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,590 posts, read 75,571,450 times
Reputation: 16657
Im ready for spring. 50s next week!

Lets see how much the rain can melt this snow. Longest duration snowpack comes at the end of the season. No surprise. 9 days now




Another cold day... Did we pass 30s today? 5:30pm map

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Old 02-21-2024, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,283 posts, read 5,151,546 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Im ready for spring. 50s next week!

Lets see how much the rain can melt this snow. Longest duration snowpack comes at the end of the season. No surprise. 9 days now




Another cold day... Did we pass 30s today? 5:30pm map
Mid-60s in Central Ohio where I'm at this week...melted all the 7" snowpack that fell last Friday into Saturday.
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Old 02-21-2024, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,590 posts, read 75,571,450 times
Reputation: 16657
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
Mid-60s in Central Ohio where I'm at this week...melted all the 7" snowpack that fell last Friday into Saturday.

Nice! Meanwhile 8 of the last 9 days the max temp has been below normal here
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