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Old 02-05-2012, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
9,758 posts, read 15,794,013 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ctwhitechin View Post
Won't it be late to get a severe change in the pattern the further we get through Feb? No real snow forecast through the middle of the month. What are the chances of us getting a severe March when we are still showing consistent temps in the 40s right through the middle of this month?

Some swing from last winter to this winter. I will take this winter any time. Last winter was nothing but headaches.
There is some precedent:

1998.....less than 1" of total snow until March 22, then 5+" fell.

1982.....only a few inches of snow all winter, then 9-13" on April 6
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Old 02-05-2012, 02:50 PM
 
Location: IN
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Latest GFS model runs are very dry yet again. The dry La Nina winter across the northern tier of the US CONTINUES. The 0Z GFS model wanted to induce some phasing of the jet streams with a coastal storm over a week out, but has since vanished in the 6Z and 12Z runs. NAO is now forecasted to be neutral or positive so it seems harder to get that coastal low passing by the benchmark this winter at all.
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Old 02-05-2012, 08:09 PM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
9,758 posts, read 15,794,013 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Latest GFS model runs are very dry yet again. The dry La Nina winter across the northern tier of the US CONTINUES. The 0Z GFS model wanted to induce some phasing of the jet streams with a coastal storm over a week out, but has since vanished in the 6Z and 12Z runs. NAO is now forecasted to be neutral or positive so it seems harder to get that coastal low passing by the benchmark this winter at all.
There is talk about a brief rain/snow mix Wed. or Thurs. now though, just this morning it was showing completely dry all week!
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Old 02-06-2012, 05:39 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
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Now they're showing more rain than snow and it going on all day Wed. so who knows what we're getting......(especially "up north").
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:35 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,104,710 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ctwhitechin View Post
Won't it be late to get a severe change in the pattern the further we get through Feb? No real snow forecast through the middle of the month. What are the chances of us getting a severe March when we are still showing consistent temps in the 40s right through the middle of this month?

Some swing from last winter to this winter. I will take this winter any time. Last winter was nothing but headaches.
It’s always possible some colder/stormy weather could come along next week or the week after (no chance this week, however). Although, the odds of that look low at this point from what I’ve seen.

The much more important factor I think is that by the third week of Feb, even if there is a pattern change, the effect will be too small to have huge impact. By the first/second week of March - average highs in the Tri-State area are pushing 45 F and average low are just at freezing (32 F). Even if we had a week of daily temps 5 F below normal, daily highs would still be 40 F - too warm for any snow to survive for long. The chances of a heavy snow fall like a rock by the end of the month in our area. It has to get very cold, snow very hard, and very fast, for us to get a big snowstorm in our area in March. Not impossible by any means – just not very likely in terms of the odds.

After this week (which looks mild and mostly dry)…the time left in the game for winter 2011/2012 will be down to the 2:00 min warning...
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,082 posts, read 57,451,608 times
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Wednesday night is a non event. You'll be lucky to see an inch from it. .07-.15"qpf liquid which after virga, and dry air maybe .07" will stick. lol

The weekend potential I personally think it stays well off shore maybe bring scattered snow showers at best.

Watch the system come into California tomorrow. It all depends where that goes for us this coming weekend.
  • If it stays north where Senario #1 is, the Polar air will not dive down, storm most likely will dissipate moving across.
  • If it takes Senario 2 track then there's a better "chance" the 2 Jets will phase and tap Gulf Moisture bringing us a storm.
  • If it stays south of those 2 senarios then we get nothing either




ENJOY THE BLUE.. (and I dont mean Giants)

If I see the GFS show what its showing 4 more times I will mention it, but until then its just another "Fantasy" storm its showing.
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:52 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,082 posts, read 57,451,608 times
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Oh, The Tropical System in the Gulf that hurricane Hunters are monitoring should just bring Rain to the south and not become a Tropical Storm. Yes...I said Tropical.

The only other time in February a Tropical Storm happened was the Groundhog Tropical Storm February 1952.

Interestingly enough, that winter had late snowstorms including a 20" snowfall in Cape Cod, MA February 27, 1952 and NYC had the most snow in March that Winter with 7.4" while still being below normal for the season.

Yesterdays Satellite View of Gulf.



Surface Pressure Map of February 1952.


1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"After leaving Florida, the storm continued rapidly northeastward, strengthening to peak winds of 50 mph. On February 4 it completed the transition into an extratropical cyclone off the coast of North Carolina. Around that time, gale force winds extended 100 miles to the east of the center. Later that day, it passed over Cape Cod, and early on February 5 it moved into eastern Maine"
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Conn.
887 posts, read 1,002,581 times
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Smile daffodils and snowdrops are up!

I went to Edgarton Park on New Haven/Hamden townline yesterday (Feb.5) and the green shoots of the daffodils are about 5 inches high and snowdrops and up and in bloom. In the community garden area of the park, there is broccoli growing (probably left over from last season's harvest) and some other greens growing very well - could be Swiss chard.
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Old 02-06-2012, 05:52 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
2,708 posts, read 2,843,004 times
Reputation: 1550
Oh no...it's teasing/tantalizing again...long range NWS forecast showing snow showers & cold for Hartford over the weekend?
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Old 02-07-2012, 04:49 AM
 
Location: Republic of New England
633 posts, read 1,397,498 times
Reputation: 194
I believe it will still get warmed... dont get your high hopes all you winter lovers.
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