[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I'm just throwing this one out there to play with for now ....

This would be another Christmas Day Blizzard like in 2002!

GFS Model at Hour 324 (Yes I know) is showing a 984mb Storm near us and temps here showing cold enough to support snow...

I think we warm to 40s-50s most of January so this will be our last chance... I really hope not.
12zgfs500mbHGHTNA324.html

40s/50s most of January? That would be 10-15 F above the climatological norms (at least for Hartford area)...makes no sense

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Lowerdeck

The one from 2-12-06 was more interesting than 12-19-09

Over two feet slammed Danbury in 12 hours, drifts went three feet high. The storm had an eye off the coast of New Jersey that morning, as it went to about 972 mb.

North American blizzard of 2006 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sweet...I remember that one, we have Thunder snow in that.... But I'm just trying to get wavehunter to agree that it does happen in December even though waters are warm...

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by rajmelk

40s/50s most of January? That would be 10-15 F above the climatological norms (at least for Hartford area)...makes no sense

Not the whole month.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

As of right now…this morning (Sunday) the power of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean south of 40 latitude is quite apparent: The surface temps have surged into the 40’s, New Haven is 43 F, Groton 43 F, NYC 49 F, Atlantic City is now 55 F!. I think a big factor in WHY these winter lows seem to head for the Great Lakes is the strong Atlantic ridge. We must remember that low pressure moving south of Tri-State (or out to sea) is really more a rare event, compared to what is known as “inside runners” (meaning the low goes through the Great Lakes). Of course with the American subtropics so close (Koppen starts this zone around southeast Virginia), warm air advection is always in the cards.

The power of the warm Atlantic is often the saving grace for the East Coast and contributes to the relatively mild winters in places like Connecticut, NYC, NJ, MD, …etc (compared to the Western interior USA, or Upper Midwest/New England).

Prediction: With the temp already 55 F in Atlantic City...parts of southern Connecticut have a good shot of 57 or 58 F by mid day today as the heat is really pulled off the south Atlantic.

Its so funny watching you and Cambrium try to prove your points regarding snow in December and the effects of the warmer ocean on snowstorms . .. thanks, it makes for very interesting reading!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Its so funny watching you and Cambrium try to prove your points regarding snow in December and the effects of the warmer ocean on snowstorms . .. thanks, it makes for very interesting reading!

lol..glad you're enjoying it. I keep mentioning last years because it's still fresh in "my" memory but I have backup. LOL Like Dec. 6th 2003..Not even considered winter on that date.

I just dont want people to think it cant .. it would be like false advertising. I do enjoy the debate myself...I dont even know if its a debate...I'm stating facts and he's trying to say the coast cant have a big snowstorm because of the warm waters in November/December.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Actually we DO get weather like you described in your earlier post (the NWS blizzard warnings for Minnesota) but they are very rare especially compared to places like Minnesota or even (to think of somewhere closer) Northern New England. I'd say maybe once a decade on average we get an event like that.

Warm as the Atlantic is, we are actually rather cold for a coastal area at this latitude (mainly due to the fact that the ocean is east and south of us and prevailing winds tend to come from the colder inland north and west). Our latitude in Europe puts us in coastal northern Spain and across northern parts of Italy and Greece and except in mountainous areas they never get snow and don't go much below freezing. Even on the west coast at our latitude (California/Oregon border) rarely gets any snow and is about as warm in winter as the Carolinas.

A revised Koppen (you can look this up on Wikipedia) bases the subtropic zone on where the coldest month averages 32-deg or more. That actually puts the line up to about southern NJ and northern Delaware and technically Philly and New York City (January averages right at 32.....since every 10 years they do a new 30 year average this has wavered so some consider it subtropical under the "new" Koppen, some don't). I think this is overdone (I would define it as anywhere that virtually always gets at least one "sticking" snow/year, which would make the line be around coastal VA into inland NC) but worth noting.

Just a few corrections to keep the climate /meteorological data on the up and up so to speak:

1) WE (meaning the Tri-State area – NYC/LI/CT/NJ) do not ever ever get the type of true severe Midwest/Northern Plains Blizzards with wind chills of - 25 to -40 below zero. In fact, since the infrequent snowstorm on the East Coast is often dubbed “heart attack” snow (meaning it is very wet) we are often in the mid 20’s F when snow is falling here. In my lifetime I can never remember a snowstorm with windchills of even below zero - let alone 25 or 35 F below zero. We just don't have the gentics in our climate to produce that type of cold.

2) Saying that we are cold for a coastal area at this latitude is a little misleading when you compare us to a West Coast climate like Europe of the Pacific Northwest: It is well known that there is a tendency for monsoon circulations on East Coasts (mostly in East Asia and the USA East Coast) this accentuates the seasonal temperatures ...making for cold winters and hot summers. Europe or the Pacific NW at the same latitude is warmer in the cold season that we are...but we are warmer in the hot season than they are. In fact, the Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast near the Tri-State area reaches 75 F...much warmer than it ever gets off the West Coast or Europe at the same latitude. So one can look at that both ways. We have colder winters but hotter summers. Since I would consider the winters south of around 40 latitude (NYC) mild on the East Coast anyway – I think we get the best deal by having the climate we have.

3) I think you might have missed my point: I do not consider even Maryland subtropical, let alone NJ. The debate of where the subtropical zone is/should be is always a source of contention. My point was that around North Carolina - the East Coast grades in a true humid subtropical climate. The local area (NYC, NJ, CT, Long Island) is less than 350 miles from this climate zone. My point was that our location is closer to this subtropical zone than places to our north (i.e., the Great Lakes, New England, Quebec, Atlantic Canada...etc)...and the chance of WAA (warm air advection) is never far.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Sweet...I remember that one, we have Thunder snow in that.... But I'm just trying to get wavehunter to agree that it does happen in December even though waters are warm...

Again (I mentioned this several times now)…I NEVER SAID IT DOSN”T SNOW IN DECEMBER BECAUSE OF THE WARM ATLANTIC. I only:


1) Tried to keep you from following the hype of the pro-snow gang at AccuWeather/Weather Channel...

2) Make you aware that a headline like “Major Blizzard could hit East Coast next week”…climatologically is a long shot, and often a hyped headline for marketing reasons...

3) When the Atlantic Ocean is warmer …the longer/stronger the Atlantic ridge stays around in the cold season (Dec – Feb). Just like I told you back in September, (when Atlantic Ocean SST were near record levels)….snow on the East Coast would be a long shot till the new year, since the Atlantic ridge will stay strong...

I NEVER SAID IT COULDN’T SNOW IN DECEMBER.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Just a few corrections to keep the climate /meteorological data on the up and up so to speak:

1) WE (meaning the Tri-State area – NYC/LI/CT/NJ) do not ever ever get the type of true severe Midwest/Northern Plains Blizzards with wind chills of - 25 to -40 below zero. In fact, since the infrequent snowstorm on the East Coast is often dubbed “heart attack” snow (meaning it is very wet) we are often in the mid 20’s F when snow is falling here. In my lifetime I can never remember a snowstorm with windchills of even below zero - let alone 25 or 35 F below zero. We just don't have the gentics in our climate to produce that type of cold.

2) Saying that we are cold for a coastal area at this latitude is a little misleading when you compare us to a West Coast climate like Europe of the Pacific Northwest: It is well known that there is a tendency for monsoon circulations on East Coasts (mostly in East Asia and the USA East Coast) this accentuates the seasonal temperatures ...making for cold winters and hot summers. Europe or the Pacific NW at the same latitude is warmer in the cold season that we are...but we are warmer in the hot season than they are. In fact, the Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast near the Tri-State area reaches 75 F...much warmer than it ever gets off the West Coast or Europe at the same latitude. So one can look at that both ways. We have colder winters but hotter summers. Since I would consider the winters south of around 40 latitude (NYC) mild on the East Coast anyway – I think we get the best deal by having the climate we have.

3) I think you might have missed my point: I do not consider even Maryland subtropical, let alone NJ. The debate of where the subtropical zone is/should be is always a source of contention. My point was that around North Carolina - the East Coast grades in a true humid subtropical climate. The local area (NYC, NJ, CT, Long Island) is less than 350 miles from this climate zone. My point was that our location is closer to this subtropical zone than places to our north (i.e., the Great Lakes, New England, Quebec, Atlantic Canada...etc)...and the chance of WAA (warm air advection) is never far.

Regarding your points above (thanks for the good clarification BTW):

1) You're right, I meant the wind speed and snow, not the wind chill, the rare times we do have subzero windchill it's usually a CLEAR cold night that happens to be windy. Obviously a -40 wind chill is not reallly possible here (though it is possible though again somewhat rare north of here, i.e. maybe Albany on north and the Mass border of VT/NH on north.

2) Yeah, I did mean in winter, obviously in summer it is the reverse and we're much warmer than coastal Europe and the west coast (at our latitude, or for that matter even San Francisco which is at the latitude of Virginia Beach)

3) I wasn't talking about revised Koppen to contradict you, just to note that some scientists actually consider "Koppen subtropical" nowadays to be extremely close to here.

Thanks again I stand corrected.

[Cambium]

Anyone know what the models are showing for CT around Dec 20th?

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

lol..glad you're enjoying it. I keep mentioning last years because it's still fresh in "my" memory but I have backup. LOL Like Dec. 6th 2003..Not even considered winter on that date.

I just dont want people to think it cant .. it would be like false advertising. I do enjoy the debate myself...I dont even know if its a debate...I'm stating facts and he's trying to say the coast cant have a big snowstorm because of the warm waters in November/December.

You both make valid points...

But I think Wave is just trying to say its very hard to get a good snowstorm going in December which I agree with. While you saying it can and does happen is also true.