Des Moines' population growth outpaces state, Midwest

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by atler8

I have refrained from picking up again on the Des Moines vs. Madison sidebar discussion that was prevalent earlier in this thread despite having done some research into single family home building permit numbers that shocked me. However, since that Des Moines vs. Madison theme has been brought up here again I will state that since the recesssion hit, greater Madison's single family home building permits, as indicated in available data through 2011, have collapsed & not recovered nearly to the extent that they have recovered in greater Des Moines.
Permits in greater Des Moines fell for a while as the recession took hold but have recovered to the extent that metro Des Moines is positively eating Madison's lunch when it comes to home building activity according to those building permit records. Information I have seen also indicates that greater Des Moines has perhaps done better in the post recession period in job growth than had been thought to be the case. Apparently that is the basis for the robust permit numbers. Just this week in the Des Moines Register there was an article that noted that the activity could soon trigger a shortage of lots for home building.
As for the city proper of Madison, it had huge home permit numbers before the recession & they were often twice as high as in the city proper of Des Moines peaking in the last decade at 998 permits in 2002. The steep drop there has only slightly bounced up from the recessionary low point. The slight recovery in the city proper in the data available through 2011 gave Madison 177 permits that year.
But, though both cities fell in permits granted within their city limits, Madison & Des Moines had almost comparable post-recession numbers for a few years around 2009. As of 2011, Des Moines proper dipped a bit more & Madison proper rose a bit & there was a gap of 62 permits between them but still a far cry from the typical gap of between 400 & 500 that existed per year in the pre-recession years.
I have not seen 2012 data yet but as of 2011, I can safely repeat that metro DesMoines was eating metro Madison's lunch in home bulilding permits.
Adding a little perspective to the fact that the metro Madison permit numbers are no longer spectacular or remarkable is the fact that North Liberty, the second largest suburb of Iowa City with a population of 13,000, trailed Madison proper by only 20 home permits in 2011.
Furthermore in 2011 there were 7 cities in greater Des Moines that issued more than 100 home permits, with Ankeny the second largest suburb at 45,753 population leading the pack with 570.
In greater Madison that year there was one city with over 100 permits issued & it was Madison proper with 177 issued.
Sun Prairie, the largest Madison suburb, peaked with 331 permits issued in 2003 & recored 35 permits in 2011. Fitchburg, the next largest suburb there only issued 20 permits in 2011.
I have more data available to further my theme here & if there is any interest indicated in seeing it, I will post it. If not, then perhaps enough has been written about Des Moines vs. Madison on this Des Moines thread & we should let that rivalry rest.

New Building permits issued in Dane County, WI in 2012: 2,351.
New Building permits issued in Polk County, IA in 2012: 3,509.
Population Percentage change in Dane County, WI 2010-2012: 3.2%
Population Percentage chanage in Polk County, IA 2010-2012: 3.0%
(This is a bit surprising because Polk County, IA has a very high birth rate compared to Dane County, WI overall)
Non-farm employment change in Dane County, WI 2011-2012: +2.2%
Non-farm employment change in Polk County, IA 2011-2012: -1.9%
(Dallas County,IA did see a 7.8% gain in employment)

I Disagree that building permits tell the entire story regarding in-migration, economic growth, and economic dynamism overall. I think Madison region was overbuilt on housing in the prior decade and inventories are probably leveling off before the next construction boom begins. Also, you aren't factoring in multi-family housing permits (unless those numbers are also included within the housing permit numbers as a whole). I think the NEW job growth numbers are the more important statistic to watch and I definitely think Madison will best Des Moines in that regard this decade.

Another thing that surprises me about the new building permits issued by Polk County in 2012 is that it basically represented 1/3 of the total for the entire state of Iowa. This shows that Des Moines metro is quickly gaining strength relative to the fast declining rural areas of the state and the smaller metros.

[atler8]

I wonder if the birth rate you cited for Polk County is high because the hospitals where the births are recorded are concentrated in Polk & that they would also serve booming Dallas County which is populated with young families? Other than than that, I can't imagine why Polk would have a particularly higher birth rate than Dane county. You've apparently seen the stats so is it a noticeable difference?
I have not been able to find any 2012 building permit totals thus far. Do you have access to the permit total for Dallas County as well?
May 2012-May 2013 job growth in the Des Moines metro totaled 8,100 or nearly 2.5%. I do not have a county-by-county breakdown of that data but it is certainly a strong gain & I doubt would have been that strong without an increase of note in Polk.
One thing that is unfortunate for Iowa is the last thing that you mentioned & that is the utter dominance of the Des Moines metro area as a portion of the statewide permit total granted. Similarly a huge portion of the overall state population growth has occurred in that one metro during each of the last 2 decades.
One positive trend though is that out-migration levels from Iowa have collapsed since 1990 from the high levels recorded all throughout the 20th century, & especially those found during the farm crisis decade of the 1980's. Internal migration from state-to-state is relatively balanced for Iowa & when counting the gain from international migration, the movement of peoples in and out of Iowa is now shockingly balanced.
If it had a larger births-over-deaths surplus, it would be growing considerably faster.

[BLCLLC]

The Des Moines area IS a white collar urban Mecca . The Principal, Wells Fargo and the myriad of insurance companies provide an educated population and good paying middle class jobs. Des Moines is also the States legal and governmental center. Having lived in 4 other states and traveled to all the others in my 64 yrs, Des Moines is a uniquely upscale area that remains relatively affordable . Best place for a young professional to stake out a career