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Here in PA (Blue governor, Red legislature) we had rolling lockdowns by county, with the urban counties locking down first, and tighter than rural counties. At one point we had a majority of counties with zero or single digit cases even while Philly and certain other counties had hundreds of cases. PA is a microcosm of the country.[/quote]
The problem was people in Philly could travel to areas without the virus and visa versa. It was inevitable that the virus would spread all over the state.
What concerns me is the obvious solution. If people had been blocked from traveling to other counties or states early on, we could have kept the cases from spreading around the country. We also could have kept almost everything open. Except where the virus was already located.
So say we get things under control by summer. Case counts are like China is now. What would people prefer? Another lock down like we are going through now or a local travel ban. Simply force people to stay in the county where they live? Yes it would mean blocking every single road in and out of every county. A big endeavor but if it means stopping the spread of the virus in a 2nd wave it might be the best solution.
The problem with cities like NYC is so many people do not have cars and are forced to use public transportation. As far as I have hear subways are still crowded in NYC. In rural areas and even suburban areas people use their own vehicles.
Yes if you need a ventilator living in NYC is better than rural Wyoming. But the goal should be not to catch the virus in the first place. That gives most rural areas the edge.
Rural areas have the edge? Rural Decatur County in Indiana has had 18 deaths from a total population of 25,740. This is equivalent to a death rate of 700 per million. This is almost as bad as New York (death rate 933 per million). Decatur has a population density of 70 per square mile vs. 26400 per sq mile in NYC -- but that low density did not help them.
An explanation of this could be that rural people squander what advantage they have by being lax about the virus, thinking that it's just a 'big city problem' and they won't get it. So they continue gathering at churches, coffee shops and community events like they always have and infect each other.
Then explain the higher death percentages in Italy? On top of that lots of red states have large black populations. Arkansas would be one example. Hypertension might be the factor. Its higher among black people and a big risk factor for the virus.
Italy also often has a very traditional family structure where multigenerational households are common and it's often expected that elderly parents will move in with their children when they're having trouble in their own apartments. So you have a lot of scenarios where the 40something 'kids' go to work as usual, pick up a very mild case of COVID or are totally asymptomatic and then pass it on to frail elderly parents at home who are hit far worse by the bug.
So call it traditional family values making the situation worse there.
41k deaths in roughly seven weeks. I think the first death was reported 2/29. If it’s seasonal like the flu it’s one thing but 41k/7weeks*52weeks = 300k+ deaths. The number of deaths to date is lower than it would have been without a shutdown
Rural areas have the edge? Rural Decatur County in Indiana has had 18 deaths from a total population of 25,740. This is equivalent to a death rate of 700 per million. This is almost as bad as New York (death rate 933 per million). Decatur has a population density of 70 per square mile vs. 26400 per sq mile in NYC -- but that low density did not help them.
The problem with your statement is the virus had to be brought into those rural communities. The question is how did it get there.
The county set up a task force that among other issues has explored why the numbers may be so high. Some theories include the fact that many Franklin residents travel to Indianapolis or Cincinnati for work or entertainment, said Jason Lovins, the public information officer for the county’s COVID task force.
Other area health officials have traced the source for at least some of the initial cases. Some people who work for businesses in the area had traveled and when they returned fell ill, Ripley County Health Officer Dr. David Welsh said.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA
An explanation of this could be that rural people squander what advantage they have by being lax about the virus, thinking that it's just a 'big city problem' and they won't get it. So they continue gathering at churches, coffee shops and community events like they always have and infect each other.
Look, I live in a blue city with a very liberal proactive mayor and you see people all over gathering in groups and doing things they are not suppose to. To say that only people in rural red states do those things is not true.
I read your post. Bringing up a yearly total that assumes that it is not seasonal and that it will continue unabated the entire year is ridiculous. It just spreads fear unnecessarily.
Only time will tell. We're in the first few months of something that may last a couple of years, and is expected to come in waves. It's simplistic to predict the final numbers based on numbers to date.
If red states don't test then they don't have the virus there, amirite?
I've been following my state's county by county infection/death rate. I'm in a purple state, blue city but majority of rural counties are red. It's not a politically motivated virus, it's a mindset if you will.
The death rate per infected person in my blue city is 1.8% but I see counties nearby with death rates of 8% and 10%.
Are these numbers skewed because those high rate CV19 death counties are not testing? I'm sure that's true but I also think it's true that quite a few older people's death certificates don't list CV-19 when they die at home or non-hospital setting. That kind of decision is local. Some relatives will say no autopsy, he/she died of "the most acceptable cause" and stop there.
I come from a different smaller state and know how things work on a local level.
Ask yourself "How many people had AIDS put on their death certificate in the early days?" When no one wanted to admit there was such a thing. There is no national mandate to determine CV19 death numbers. In fact there's an anti-mandate. Deny people are getting it, deny that many people are dying of it.
The claim is the red states and all conservatives are pure of thought and heart, therefore they cannot catch diseases as do blue states and liberals.
Tell me who is claiming that.
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