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American's are rabid consumers, in spite of this viral threat millions of US citizens are demanding their shopping, eating, drinking and sports be returned to them. And on that note, the viral caused recession will quickly become a dim memory for most. Further, it will not be the deaths from covid19 that people will talk about for years to come, no, that loss of our normal mass consumption habits will be the topic most often discussed.
Unless the death toll continues to rise, I'm going to assume the normal rate of consumption will return, minus the contributions from a few million people who may find the road back to be blocked for quite a long time. In every economic setback there are always those who will suffer much more damage than others, older workers may just be forced to "retire," some younger ones will survive--or not.
The already retired/elderly are busy dying and babies are born with enough frequency to assure a stable pile of future workers. So life rolls on, no guarantees, period..As for those in business, the old saying--"Business genius equals a rising economy," will undoubtedly come into play during the downturn, it can be looked at as a kind of sorting out of the weak VS the strong and you can't get much more American than that.
It’s interesting that some of you throw out time frames for recovery of 5 to 15 years when the U.S economy is the most powerful on Earth, and arguably the most powerful in human history. Countries like Japan and Germany, that had every major and intermediate city reduced to ash with fire bombing recovered faster than that, and that was decades ago.
You know the drill though. If the economy recovers in 2 years the people in here saying the economy will never come back will instead switch to denying a recovery happened.
Look no further than (the granted unhinged) C2BP. Despite low unemployment, higher wages, higher production, higher consumption, high consumer sentiment, blistering stock market, etc. was in here for years screaming that there had never been a recovery.
Just this morning the financial experts were predicting that the country will be reopened, and the economy recovered within a year. It is supposed to bounce back better than before.
Also, in the Epicenter of this virus, New York, 73 cases of COVID-related Pediatric Multi-symptom Inflammatory Syndrome have been reported. 3 children have died.
100 cases have been reported Nationwide. This is new. As far as we know, no previous reports have been made anywhere.
You know the drill though. If the economy recovers in 2 years the people in here saying the economy will never come back will instead switch to denying a recovery happened.
Look no further than (the granted unhinged) C2BP. Despite low unemployment, higher wages, higher production, higher consumption, high consumer sentiment, blistering stock market, etc. was in here for years screaming that there had never been a recovery.
We've had a little over 300 total cases in my TV viewing area of about 500k, yet everything closed down. We've never come close to reaching hospital capacity, the hospital had to stop most of its revenue generating procedures, and actually furloughed a bunch of people.
I can see closing bars, big events, etc., but why shut everything down? A lot of these small businesses won't recover and who knows if and when those people find other jobs.
The media IMO did not want to call this what it mostly is: The NYC metro pandemic.
The frenzy led dozens of governors to shut down despite having few cases per capita.
NYC should be the only region still, effectively shut down.
If it crashes our local economy causing corps to relo, that is preferable to shutting the nation down, so as to avoid corps moving.
FRISK scores determine probability of bankruptcy within twelve months (and we're just beyond that twelve-month time frame now for JCP and Neiman Marcus, with or without the pandemic).
Bankruptcy is not liquidation in most cases.
Now repeat bankruptcies often liquidate.
Plus, the timeframe from announcement to liquidation, if it hits that stage, are for corps that big 6-12 months after the first court date.
We're in the midst of a horrific long term economic decline. There won't even be an illusory recovery this time like there was after the last crisis. The good 'ol days of 2019 are never coming back. People need to wake up. Stop looking at pretty rainbows and look at the harsh reality.
What complete nonsense. It has been explained by smarter people than me why this is nothing like 1929.
I think most of the standard milestones about what constitutes a good life need to be completely thrown out the window. 2008 was a precursor to that. It woke a few people up, but after being knocked out for a couple of years, society essentially went on with the typical materialistic mindset as before (or tried to keep up the pretense of doing so). So the people who didn't get the message in 2008 are about to get another opportunity to 'get it' now.
Expect life to be hard from this moment forward, because I really think it will be. Expect to be flexible in your thinking (but not necessarily your core ethical/moral values). Expect that being outside your comfort zone is the new normal--in many, many arenas of life. Expect to question yourself about what is really important in life.
There is good news though: Potential for personal growth is much, much, higher when life isn't comfortable. We just don't learn much when we're in our comfort zones.
Of course, no one knows, but we need to wake up and realize this (above described) is a distinct possibility.
American's are rabid consumers, in spite of this viral threat millions of US citizens are demanding their shopping, eating, drinking and sports be returned to them. And on that note, the viral caused recession will quickly become a dim memory for most. Further, it will not be the deaths from covid19 that people will talk about for years to come, no, that loss of our normal mass consumption habits will be the topic most often discussed.
Unless the death toll continues to rise, I'm going to assume the normal rate of consumption will return, minus the contributions from a few million people who may find the road back to be blocked for quite a long time. In every economic setback there are always those who will suffer much more damage than others, older workers may just be forced to "retire," some younger ones will survive--or not.
The already retired/elderly are busy dying and babies are born with enough frequency to assure a stable pile of future workers. So life rolls on, no guarantees, period..As for those in business, the old saying--"Business genius equals a rising economy," will undoubtedly come into play during the downturn, it can be looked at as a kind of sorting out of the weak VS the strong and you can't get much more American than that.
The consumer is a big part of the problem. You can reopen businesses, but you can't force consumers to eat at restaurants, go to a movie, go to a sporting event, fly on an airplane, take a cruise, etc.. Yes, business will pop back, but it will NOT pop back to pre-virus levels until there is a vaccine, cure, or treatment protocol. Plus the government can only prop up the economy for so long. I wish the economy would pop back quickly (to pre-virus levels), I just don't see it happening.
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