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Old 05-10-2020, 10:04 AM
 
4,390 posts, read 3,571,355 times
Reputation: 13277

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American's are rabid consumers, in spite of this viral threat millions of US citizens are demanding their shopping, eating, drinking and sports be returned to them. And on that note, the viral caused recession will quickly become a dim memory for most. Further, it will not be the deaths from covid19 that people will talk about for years to come, no, that loss of our normal mass consumption habits will be the topic most often discussed.

Unless the death toll continues to rise, I'm going to assume the normal rate of consumption will return, minus the contributions from a few million people who may find the road back to be blocked for quite a long time. In every economic setback there are always those who will suffer much more damage than others, older workers may just be forced to "retire," some younger ones will survive--or not.

The already retired/elderly are busy dying and babies are born with enough frequency to assure a stable pile of future workers. So life rolls on, no guarantees, period..As for those in business, the old saying--"Business genius equals a rising economy," will undoubtedly come into play during the downturn, it can be looked at as a kind of sorting out of the weak VS the strong and you can't get much more American than that.
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Old 05-10-2020, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
7,499 posts, read 3,646,083 times
Reputation: 14295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
It’s interesting that some of you throw out time frames for recovery of 5 to 15 years when the U.S economy is the most powerful on Earth, and arguably the most powerful in human history. Countries like Japan and Germany, that had every major and intermediate city reduced to ash with fire bombing recovered faster than that, and that was decades ago.
You know the drill though. If the economy recovers in 2 years the people in here saying the economy will never come back will instead switch to denying a recovery happened.

Look no further than (the granted unhinged) C2BP. Despite low unemployment, higher wages, higher production, higher consumption, high consumer sentiment, blistering stock market, etc. was in here for years screaming that there had never been a recovery.
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Old 05-10-2020, 10:47 AM
 
Location: The Ozone Layer, apparently...
2,385 posts, read 893,038 times
Reputation: 5052
Just this morning the financial experts were predicting that the country will be reopened, and the economy recovered within a year. It is supposed to bounce back better than before.

Also, in the Epicenter of this virus, New York, 73 cases of COVID-related Pediatric Multi-symptom Inflammatory Syndrome have been reported. 3 children have died.

100 cases have been reported Nationwide. This is new. As far as we know, no previous reports have been made anywhere.
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Old 05-10-2020, 10:49 AM
 
1,273 posts, read 762,909 times
Reputation: 2067
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
You know the drill though. If the economy recovers in 2 years the people in here saying the economy will never come back will instead switch to denying a recovery happened.

Look no further than (the granted unhinged) C2BP. Despite low unemployment, higher wages, higher production, higher consumption, high consumer sentiment, blistering stock market, etc. was in here for years screaming that there had never been a recovery.

C2BP

Crazy2BPoor?
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Old 05-10-2020, 10:53 AM
 
22,363 posts, read 8,996,527 times
Reputation: 10468
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
Completely agreed.

We've had a little over 300 total cases in my TV viewing area of about 500k, yet everything closed down. We've never come close to reaching hospital capacity, the hospital had to stop most of its revenue generating procedures, and actually furloughed a bunch of people.

I can see closing bars, big events, etc., but why shut everything down? A lot of these small businesses won't recover and who knows if and when those people find other jobs.
The media IMO did not want to call this what it mostly is: The NYC metro pandemic.

The frenzy led dozens of governors to shut down despite having few cases per capita.

NYC should be the only region still, effectively shut down.

If it crashes our local economy causing corps to relo, that is preferable to shutting the nation down, so as to avoid corps moving.
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Old 05-10-2020, 10:55 AM
 
22,363 posts, read 8,996,527 times
Reputation: 10468
Quote:
Originally Posted by CorporateCowboy View Post
FRISK scores determine probability of bankruptcy within twelve months (and we're just beyond that twelve-month time frame now for JCP and Neiman Marcus, with or without the pandemic).
Bankruptcy is not liquidation in most cases.

Now repeat bankruptcies often liquidate.

Plus, the timeframe from announcement to liquidation, if it hits that stage, are for corps that big 6-12 months after the first court date.

That drags it well into 2021.
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Old 05-10-2020, 11:44 AM
 
Location: San Francisco
3,898 posts, read 1,027,869 times
Reputation: 2331
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Bankruptcy is not liquidation in most cases.

Now repeat bankruptcies often liquidate.

Plus, the timeframe from announcement to liquidation, if it hits that stage, are for corps that big 6-12 months after the first court date.

That drags it well into 2021.

While I agree all 3 would die, I do not think any would die, in full, in 2020, w/o covid
I know you 'think' they would have hung on for a couple more years, but your feelings are irrelevant to my point and FRISK scores (NM and JCP).
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Old 05-10-2020, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Mount Airy, Maryland
12,065 posts, read 6,826,687 times
Reputation: 19328
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
We're in the midst of a horrific long term economic decline. There won't even be an illusory recovery this time like there was after the last crisis. The good 'ol days of 2019 are never coming back. People need to wake up. Stop looking at pretty rainbows and look at the harsh reality.
What complete nonsense. It has been explained by smarter people than me why this is nothing like 1929.
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Old 05-10-2020, 12:08 PM
 
3,041 posts, read 1,369,170 times
Reputation: 2563
Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
I think most of the standard milestones about what constitutes a good life need to be completely thrown out the window. 2008 was a precursor to that. It woke a few people up, but after being knocked out for a couple of years, society essentially went on with the typical materialistic mindset as before (or tried to keep up the pretense of doing so). So the people who didn't get the message in 2008 are about to get another opportunity to 'get it' now.

Expect life to be hard from this moment forward, because I really think it will be. Expect to be flexible in your thinking (but not necessarily your core ethical/moral values). Expect that being outside your comfort zone is the new normal--in many, many arenas of life. Expect to question yourself about what is really important in life.

There is good news though: Potential for personal growth is much, much, higher when life isn't comfortable. We just don't learn much when we're in our comfort zones.
Of course, no one knows, but we need to wake up and realize this (above described) is a distinct possibility.
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Old 05-10-2020, 12:23 PM
 
3,041 posts, read 1,369,170 times
Reputation: 2563
Quote:
Originally Posted by jertheber View Post
American's are rabid consumers, in spite of this viral threat millions of US citizens are demanding their shopping, eating, drinking and sports be returned to them. And on that note, the viral caused recession will quickly become a dim memory for most. Further, it will not be the deaths from covid19 that people will talk about for years to come, no, that loss of our normal mass consumption habits will be the topic most often discussed.

Unless the death toll continues to rise, I'm going to assume the normal rate of consumption will return, minus the contributions from a few million people who may find the road back to be blocked for quite a long time. In every economic setback there are always those who will suffer much more damage than others, older workers may just be forced to "retire," some younger ones will survive--or not.

The already retired/elderly are busy dying and babies are born with enough frequency to assure a stable pile of future workers. So life rolls on, no guarantees, period..As for those in business, the old saying--"Business genius equals a rising economy," will undoubtedly come into play during the downturn, it can be looked at as a kind of sorting out of the weak VS the strong and you can't get much more American than that.
The consumer is a big part of the problem. You can reopen businesses, but you can't force consumers to eat at restaurants, go to a movie, go to a sporting event, fly on an airplane, take a cruise, etc.. Yes, business will pop back, but it will NOT pop back to pre-virus levels until there is a vaccine, cure, or treatment protocol. Plus the government can only prop up the economy for so long. I wish the economy would pop back quickly (to pre-virus levels), I just don't see it happening.
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