Dems in Danger of Losing WEINER'S Seat??? (votes, liberal, stats)
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I looked at it again and find nothing McCain won in Forest Hills. I do see a few ED's close to Forest Hills that he won (some of the Orthodox in Kew Gardens), but none it FH itself, unless you are expanding Forest Hills. What ED's did McCain win in Forest Hills??
or your only including southern part of FH it's in northern part of Forrest Hills
Anyway fact of the matter is, its going to be hard for Turner to top McCain's #'s with the Orthodox, and while Turner might outperform McCain slightly in some of the other portions of the district (with the exception of Howard Beach, since it probably was as GOP as it could get due to the racist vote there) its not going to be enough to win. Werpin 53-47.
the answer to your question is turnout which demographic groups show up only in big elections and you'll see why this is going to be very close.
or your only including southern part of FH it's in northern part of Forrest Hills
I edited my previous post, I did see the areas McCain won (they were surrounded by heavily Obama ED's in the 75% range), and Obama did win big in FH as a whole.
Complete hogwash to say this district, Weiner's district, Shumer's old district that's been in dem hands for 90+ years...is conservative.
Utterly ridiculous.
The Orthodox portions of the district are very conservative. Howard Beach is very conservative. Once the Orthodox vote (mostly in the Brooklyn portion of the district) swung, it resulted in a much less Democratic district then previously. With that being said I think its the type of district in which the ceiling for the GOP isn't far above the floor. With the Orthodox vote so heavily in the GOP's favor I think they likely have a floor of in the low 40's, but they don't have much in the district where they can improve on McCain's #'s (he got 44%), so the ceiling is likely under 50% for the GOP in the district.
if you look at this you'll see that the Jewish vote is the most Conservative of any dem group in the city and when you drop out Manhattan from this list it's much more so (either way Orthodox Jews are the most Conservative demographic voting wise (at least in many elections) in NYC and Russian Jews are the 2nd most Conservative demographic)
this ED was in Lakewood NJ but was an 100% orthodox area 885 (McCain)-3 (Obama)-1 (I think this is the best McCain ED of any size in the country)
Borough Park had an area of over 50,000 people that voted for McCain at over a 90% rate
if you look at this you'll see that the Jewish vote is the most Conservative of any dem group in the city and when you drop out Manhattan from this list it's much more so (either way Orthodox Jews are the most Conservative demographic voting wise (at least in many elections) in NYC and Russian Jews are the 2nd most Conservative demographic)
Those aren't the real numbers though. They have ethnic composition by CD, which doesn't exactly mean that its the Jewish vote, Catholic vote, etc. The Orthodox tend to be heavily concentrated in certain CD's, so the Orthodox vote is generally all going to show up under the Jewish category. However, much of the rest of the Jewish vote in the city, tends to be much more spread out across many ED's, and in many cases not in ED's that are plurality Jewish and therefore aren't counted in the Jewish category.
but they don't have much in the district where they can improve on McCain's #'s (he got 44%), so the ceiling is likely under 50% for the GOP in the district.
yes they can turnout
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