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According to Nat Silver at 535, the Senate is a toss up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita
As much as I don't take him or anyone else seriously. I know he is right much more often than wrong: I think he is close to what most would say, at this stage.
I can't take anyone seriously who doesn't take Nat Silver seriously. He was 100% correct on the 2012 Presidential.
you don't have to, that certainly is your choice. I just take anything like this with a grain of salt, especially so far before an election. Anyone can be correct and yes, he is usually, but we are still talking 16 months out. So much can happen, even your idol Nat can't really predict with any certainty what the outcome will be. Oh sure, there are some seats anyone can predict and he does a better job than most, but there are always too many up in the air. How well did he do in say, 2010?
exactly. Dems are going to put money in these Senate races. just as they did last year.
Susan Collins is not safe in Maine, neither is Mitch McConnell in Kentucky(although im not sure if dems can win or just divert republican money there from other races). Open seats in South Carolina and Georgia.
Democrats were already expecting a tough fight in the senate, but republicans will have to spend money and resources they didnt intend to or want to spend.
If anyones safe, it's Susan Collins, she is probably the least likely to be voted out.
1 seat does not do that(nor are you guaranteed to win it), where do you see Republicans picking up the other 5 seats ?
And also, what is your strategy in 2016 When the seats up for election are all considered "safe" for the Dems ,and Republicans have seats up in Michigan, Illinois,Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and North Carolina?
He probably isnt running for senate the very reason I and other Dems have mentioned, he will run for President in 2016.
Just because you're not up on the most recent political calculus does not mean you get a free pass for being ignorant. The bottom line is that political analysts for about a year now have been warning Democrats about impending doom in the 2014 mid-terms. Get caught up to speed why don't ya??
We all know what happened in MO and IN. I don't think the rest were ever thought as being gimmes. I certainly will say again and again, right now it is a little too soon to pick who will win in 2014 with much certainty. Give it another 6 months. I would like to know where the idea came from the GOP would take Montana, ND, Wisconsin and VA, certainly where you got the idea they were gimmes?
I get the idea they were gimmes because they were. In ND, WI and VA they were all open open seats in , 2 are red states and one purple. In MT John Tester was running to defend a seat that he barely won in 2006 in a year of Democratic sweeps. A first termer in a competitive state is always vunerable. In ND the Democrates were trying to replace a long time Democratic Senator Kent Conrad and were running against a popular GOP Governer named Houven. The situation in WI and VA is a open Democratic seat and the GOP picked two strong candidates with very high name recognition named former WI Governer Tommy Thompso and George Allen (Former Senator and Governer).
I get the idea they were gimmes because they were. In ND, WI and VA they were all open open seats in , 2 are red states and one purple. In MT John Tester was running to defend a seat that he barely won in 2006 in a year of Democratic sweeps. A first termer in a competitive state is always vunerable. In ND the Democrates were trying to replace a long time Democratic Senator Kent Conrad and were running against a popular GOP Governer named Houven. The situation in WI and VA is a open Democratic seat and the GOP picked two strong candidates with very high name recognition named former WI Governer Tommy Thompso and George Allen (Former Senator and Governer).
gimmies in your opinion: how about checking what the polls were saying about a month prior to the election or what the experts were saying. I wish it had been that easy, but regardless of what you are saying, they were not gimmies. Remember what Allen said a few years back? Well, maybe you forgot but obviously the voters did not.
Dems will hold the senate but will loose 2 to 5 seats.... 2016 they will take 6 to 8 seats so it swings around...
2016 could be one of those rare tidal wave years.... Demo's are really against the gop, even the house statistically will be in play because of changing demo's and everyone will ride Hillary's coat strings even in the deep south. White's in the south identify with the Clinton's a lot more than Barack. Run good candidates and a tidal wave turnout and 2016 could be a defining year in American politics.
This generation politically is like any of the last 4 or so generations, only with a worse work ethic and bad taste in fashion and music
Heck, past generations were even more liberal on drug issues and sex stuff so don't act like this is the first generation to want legalized pot
Leave me alone, let me do what I want, lets do this and that to help others. You would be an idiot to assume that they really vote based on abortions and gay marriage.....
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