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Frankly it seems like the outcome of the presidential race is already pretty much determined. Republicans are damned if they do, damned if they don't. If they allow Trump to be the nominee many conservatives won't vote for him, and he'll scare democrats to the polls in droves, and he could get curbstomped by Hillary in possibly the biggest dem victory since the 60s. That could pose a huge problem for many Republicans downticket. There are entire states where they could be wiped out. But if they try to replace Trump with someone more electable they'll be disenfranchising millions of voters, and it will be toxic for whoever the party nominates. Cruz would be a competent candidate at least, but he'll lose the swing voters to Hillary. Even someone who would have good odds against Hillary if they'd won fair and square like Romney or Ryan or Kasich would have a large percentage of voters protesting the RNC's choice and they too would likely lose because of it.
Basically their only hope at winning* is an indictment during the general election season, which is why Obama is rushing the investigation along as quickly as possible to prevent that. The dems will try to make sure if Clinton has any legal troubles that pose a problem for her electability they are found before the convention, so that if it happens they can wash their hands and nominate Sanders. I'd put 75% odds on there being no indictment and Clinton being the next president though.
This used to happen more often in the past, where one party just failed to field a competitive candidate in some years. It looks like that could happen this year.
*Edit - Ah, there is one other possibility. If Sanders were to come back from long odds and win a pledged delegate majority in the democratic primary and the DNC shut him down with the superdelegates. That could lead to a very bizarre unique situation where both parties rejected the winner of their primaries in the same year. It could throw the general election into utter chaos.
I'm thinking irrational people have been hanging on to that one ever since a Democrat beat George Bush the elder. That wasn't "supposed" to happen, so all Democrats have been illegitimate since then.
Might be time to look at your guys' ideas and pronouncements, for why they are unlikely to win. People expect more from their government than "life sucks (if you aren't rich) and then you die."
So GOP's crooked politicians are now resorting to stealing delegates to thwart will of the people.
The delegates rules have been in place for 156 years. Just because Donald Trump has the most delegates does not mean he has a majority of delegates. The rules matter.
The delegates rules have been in place for 156 years. Just because Donald Trump has the most delegates does not mean he has a majority of delegates. The rules matter.
Jordan Spieth led The Masters golf tournament this weekend from wire to wire, for 65 consecutive holes, most of the time by what appeared to be a pretty safe margin. On the 66th hole, he made a quadruple bogey on a par 3 and fell behind, never to recover. Here is a link to the story from ESPN:
According to the rules of professional golf, the winner of the tournament is the player with the lowest score at the end of 72 holes (4 rounds over 4 days of 18 holes each). As result, the winner of this year's masters was Danny Willett and not Jordan Spieth, even though Spieth led the contest comfortably until pretty close to the end.
No doubt if Mr. Trump had suffered Jordan Spieth's fate in The Masters (which he increasingly does appear to be poised to replicate in the Republican nominating contest), both Trump and his supporters would be today sniveling like spoiled children, crying "not fair" and the like, and there would be somewhat of a controversy today, not so much about the outcome of the tournament, but about Trump and his supporters remarkably selfish and immature reaction to it.
It got voted down last year - because the state pays for primaries but the parties pay for caucuses. Supposedly they are going to try again, but whether that really happens, who knows.
There is a separate movement to try to change to let Independents participate. That one, I disagree with. I think that members of a party should be the ones who get to decide their candidates and their platform.
The argument for switching to a caucus system was cost, but now that we have mail-in elections here in Boulder County anyway, the cost is much less.
I'd like to let Indies participate. I lived in Illinois and you didn't even register with a party. If you went to the primary they asked you which ballot you wanted. I liked it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24
Not sure of the status, but there does seem to be bi-partisan support to restore the primary system in time for the 2020 election season.
Of course, there will all sorts of debates about how to pay for it, but I'm thinking it has a better chance of becoming reality after this year.
Yes, as I said above, I think mail-in elections have lowered the cost quite a bit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa
I like how they do it in Colorado in the sense that the parties should just decide who they want to run. No primaries, just get together at the convention and settle on the candidate to represent your platform.
Any vote for Cruz is a vote for an unelected president. Anyone who votes for him should be completely ashamed. Since when did you need 100% of the votes to get voted in? A little hard to tell how many votes Trump would have got when the running establishment is willing to do anything and everything including straight up not let people vote.
I'm sorry, but this kind of delusional? Trump has NEVER gotten over 50% of the vote in ANY state. He is not ENTITLED to the Presidency because he participated. I'm only ashamed that I can't vote for Cruz twice!
I'm sorry, but this kind of delusional? Trump has NEVER gotten over 50% of the vote in ANY state. He is not ENTITLED to the Presidency because he participated. I'm only ashamed that I can't vote for Cruz twice!
He'll probably get over 50% in NY. If he can do that there and in another state he'll finally put that threshold behind him and be can spin it into momentum going into California.
He'll probably get over 50% in NY. If he can do that there and in another state he'll finally put that threshold behind him and be can spin it into momentum going into California.
He will have to spin it, because he has yet to commit to attending the CA GOP convention and his poll numbers are dipping quite a bit. CA delegates are also proportionate and location based. Trump has a weak ground game in CA. Saw one of Trump's supporters on TV even saying that Trump is not giving CA the love he should be.
Of course, it can't be Trump's fault when Cruz garners more CA delegates than Trump in June.
He will have to spin it, because he has yet to commit to attending the CA GOP convention and his poll numbers are dipping quite a bit. CA delegates are also proportionate and location based. Trump has a weak ground game in CA. Saw one of Trump's supporters on TV even saying that Trump is not giving CA the love he should be.
Of course, it can't be Trump's fault when Cruz garners more CA delegates than Trump in June.
The sniveling and whining will reach yet a higher octave should that happen.
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Ah, yes, the indictment...
