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Yes, it has to tighten up by Labor day to within the MOE for him to have a shot. Anything more than he likely won't win.
If he is 13 down after the 1st debate then the GOP civil war which has been slowly breweing in the background will escalate into a armed conflict in October and November and will dominate the narrative instead of Trump vs. Clinton.
13 Down in the middle of September the Democrats will be looking at senate seats in Ga./NC/Arizona/Missouri/Iowa/Arkansas and about 50 to 60 house seats.
General Election Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 7, Stein 2
The details in the poll are extremely interesting in that Trump's numbers have stayed the same (went up briefly and dropped back down) for so long. The numbers for his temperament are unchanged, meaning he's not reassuring or winning over any new voters. Clinton's numbers actually increased for the same category.
The details in the poll are extremely interesting in that Trump's numbers have stayed the same (went up briefly and dropped back down) for so long. The numbers for his temperament are unchanged, meaning he's not reassuring or winning over any new voters. Clinton's numbers actually increased for the same category.
The more people see of Clinton, the less likely they are to buy into the Republican cartoon version of her. In contrast, the more people see of Trump the more convinced they become that he is unfit for office.
I went to take my dogs to the park and on the way there I didn't seem to notice any Trump yard signs...On the way back, I looked really hard and found one Trump yard sign, ONE and I live in a very, very conservative county in Florida. At this point in the campaign in 2012, Romney signs were almost everywhere or so it seemed.
See it doesn't take long for people to decide about someone. Most people make up their mind around the convention with the rest of the undecideds hanging on until after Labor day. And unlike the past it's easy to look things up. One of the top trending tags in twitter now is "50 GOP" Which is talking about the 50 NSA and CIA security experts that wrote a letter stating that Trump is unfit for office. How the polls go in the next 2-3 weeks will be telling. If they tighten up to pre convention numbers then it might be a real nail biter. If they stay the same or grow then Trump is in trouble. The other unknown is Trump. Just how long can he stay on message? He seems to do okay for a week or so and then gets right back into it. Whether or not this is any different remains to be seen.
I wonder if the Senate is now wishing they had confirmed Obama's pick for the SCOTUS.
There's still time for them to do so isn't there?
Which brings up a good point though. WHEN will Obama withdraw Garland? Will he at some point just go along with the GOP idea that the NEXT President (presumably Clinton) should make the choice? If he does do that, I suspect that the GOP will go into full panic mode that Clinton will nominate someone quite Liberal.
At that point there's NO DOUBT the GOP will be sorry for their intransigence.
There's still time for them to do so isn't there?
Which brings up a good point though. WHEN will Obama withdraw Garland? Will he at some point just go along with the GOP idea that the NEXT President (presumably Clinton) should make the choice? If he does do that, I suspect that the GOP will go into full panic mode that Clinton will nominate someone quite Liberal.
At that point there's NO DOUBT the GOP will be sorry for their intransigence.
Ken
Clinton is about as centrist as it gets. She is not going to nominate a flaming liberal unless it is for payback to the Republicans and that would sow bad feelings that would interfere with her legislative goals. I think she would be fine with Obama's nominee though his age may work against him.
Clinton is about as centrist as it gets. She is not going to nominate a flaming liberal unless it is for payback to the Republicans and that would sow bad feelings that would interfere with her legislative goals. I think she would be fine with Obama's nominee though his age may work against him.
True enough. As you mention though she may decide she wants someone younger. Garland is old for a nominee.
Here in Pennsylvania Hillary leads Donald by an 11 point spread according to the latest Franklin and Marshall poll.
Donald would be better off campaigning vigorously in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin ... I think he has lost Pennsylvania.
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