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New Monmouth poll - Clinton leads by 13% among likely voters.
Quote:
Currently, 46% of registered voters support Clinton and 34% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Support among likely voters stands at 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein. In a poll taken days before the Republican convention in mid-July, Clinton held a narrow 43% to 40% lead among registered voters and a 45% to 43% lead among likely voters.
To compare the recent historical performance of this pollster, in 2012 Monmouth's last poll showed a tie between President Obama and Governor Romney - Obama won by 4%, so that poll had a Romney bias of 4%. Monmouth's other polls during the campaign varied from Obama +3 to Romney +3 - in other words, every single Monmouth general election nationwide poll had a pro-Romney statistical bias. On the other hand, at least they were off by no more than 7%.
The election isn't over. There is a non-zero chance that Trump wins. But his chances are becoming longer and longer. Clinton's lead is not fading, which suggests that her surge is less a convention bounce and more Trump having permanently damaged himself with his spoutings.
Meanwhile, some people are all excited because Trump has more 'likes' on Facebook!
I think the real test will be the first post-debate polling. If there is still a large margin, then game, set, match. But realistically speaking, I think things will tighten up after Labor Day, unless Trump has another set of very large unforced errors.
I think the real test will be the first post-debate polling. If there is still a large margin, then game, set, match. But realistically speaking, I think things will tighten up after Labor Day, unless Trump has another set of very large unforced errors.
Yes, it has to tighten up by Labor day to within the MOE for him to have a shot. Anything more than he likely won't win.
I mean he might do better but if these polls don't tighten up soon this is going to turn into a blood bath.
I went to take my dogs to the park and on the way there I didn't seem to notice any Trump yard signs...On the way back, I looked really hard and found one Trump yard sign, ONE and I live in a very, very conservative county in Florida. At this point in the campaign in 2012, Romney signs were almost everywhere or so it seemed.
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