Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
-- There are nearly a million more registered Democrats in this state over Republicans.
-- This state has not voted for the Republican candidate since 1988, and there are no indications that going to change any time soon.
-- The counties where the Democrats are strongest are growing in population while the more rural counties where Republicans are strongest are losing population.
-- The most recent political trends are favorable to the Democrats. Usually Republicans do well in the off year elections, but the most recent one (in 2014) was a home-run for the Democrats - the Democrat challenger Wolf to the Republican governor Corbett won a decisive victory. Three seats on the state Supreme Court were up for all election and the Democrats carried all three seats.
-- Demographics: the Hispanic and Asian-American populations are growing in this state. When people move to Pennsylvania they are more likely to come from northeastern states like New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and New England than from the South or the Mid-West.
-- Hillary has a much better ground game in PA - she has something like 36 field offices, while Donald has 2.
-- Hillary will carry the cities - not only Philly, not only the 'Burgh, but Allentown, Scranton, Erie, Harrisburg, Wilkes Barre, etc. In towns like Chambersburg, Altoona, Towanda, Johnstown - Donald will do very well however.
I think the Trump campaign has already "written off" PA anyway.
I would agree with this, and would also add the suburban Philly factor (which in part you touched on with the populated counties gaining population trending Democratic)
Quite simply, while a Republican doesn't need to win suburban Philly to win statewide, they need to keep the margins down there and be competitive, otherwise there is simply too much ground to make up and not enough votes in the other portions of the state to make up for it (no matter how Republican some of them might be).
All indications at this point have shown Trump not being competitive in suburban Philly and getting just demolished there. Unless that changes, his chances of winning the state are extremely difficult.
Morning Call poll released today showing Hillary only up +2 now in Pennsylvania, compared to like +6-8 yesterday. Is that a bad poll or something changing in PA?
Morning Call poll released today showing Hillary only up +2 now in Pennsylvania, compared to like +6-8 yesterday. Is that a bad poll or something changing in PA?
Every now and then there has been a close poll in the state, but the vast majority of recent polling has shown her up 5-8 points in PA. If more polls start to show it closer then an argument might be able to be made, but at this point you can't make that argument. That doesn't mean it is a bad poll, but simply the consensus of the polls in PA simply do not show it this close, at least not at this point.
Morning Call poll released today showing Hillary only up +2 now in Pennsylvania, compared to like +6-8 yesterday. Is that a bad poll or something changing in PA?
538 (Nate Silver & co.) rates that poll an A and has included it in the updates for today, here:
Another couple polls with Trump up 4% and 6% in Georgia. Nice.
BTW dems - don't start poppin' bottles and spraying champagne like you've won the World Series just yet. Looks like 538 just updated their models:
Polls only - 41.2%
Polls-plus - 42.0%
Now-cast - 42.1%
This is where we need to be my fellow deplorables/Trumpets. Dems/libs; it's time to panic. And it's not just me saying that - Nate silver says the same:
Another couple polls with Trump up 4% and 6% in Georgia. Nice.
BTW dems - don't start poppin' bottles and spraying champagne like you've won the World Series just yet. Looks like 538 just updated their models:
Polls only - 41.2%
Polls-plus - 42.0%
Now-cast - 42.1%
This is where we need to be my fellow deplorables/Trumpets. Dems/libs; it's time to panic. And it's not just me saying that - Nate silver says the same:
Every now and then there has been a close poll in the state, but the vast majority of recent polling has shown her up 5-8 points in PA. If more polls start to show it closer then an argument might be able to be made, but at this point you can't make that argument. That doesn't mean it is a bad poll, but simply the consensus of the polls in PA simply do not show it this close, at least not at this point.
The Monmouth University Poll is helping to prop up the HC lead.
rcp, in the call all states tracker, now shows HC 272, DT 266. This is going to be one heck of a race.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll
