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Location: In a little house on the prairie - literally
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
I think it shows more about home the 50 state polls when pulled out of the larger national poll just shows some bizarre results. This poll also has Michigan real close, Ohio to the right of Mississippi, etc.
It is one thing to poll a state individually or even 50 separate state polls, but it appears this one along with the Ipsos one takes one huge national poll and breaks out each state from the larger national poll. If the poll is being weighted nationally and at the state level it might work, but that doesn't seem to be happening.
The MOE gets huge when States are broken out in a national poll, as there are not enough statistical valid participants. If the poll was done statistically correct state by state, and then combined for a national number, that would be different.
I bet both the GOP and DEMs are well aware of this, and base there actions on their internal state by state polling, not the stuff we plebes get to see.
538 doesn't understand how the electoral college works?
Correct, you don't understand. Here's the 2012 presidential election electorate. Remember who won that year? See how this map is identical to the cute little one you posted? You seem to think seeing a lot of red means that a republican will win. I steer you towards the Wikipedia page regarding the electoral college. Wikipedia is easy reading, you should be able to understand it.
Correct, you don't understand. Here's the 2012 presidential election electorate. Remember who won that year? See how this map is identical to the cute little one you posted? You seem to think seeing a lot of red means that a republican will win. I steer you towards the Wikipedia page regarding the electoral college. Wikipedia is easy reading, you should be able to understand it.
538 takes into account state-by-state numbers when they make their percentage based predictions. So what point are you trying to make?
You have no argument here. Stop building a straw man and give it up.
My point is very simple. Your map is identical to the 2012 presidential election outcome. Not sure why you're not understanding something so simple.
No it's not. 538's numbers on July 25th added up to a 56.5% chance of Trump obtaining 270 electoral votes and winning the election. Again, what are you trying to argue?
It's irrelevant anyway - the election wasn't being held on July 25th, with the RNC convention bounce in full effect and prior to the Democrats nominating their own candidate.
As of this morning, 538 Now-cast numbers are 72.1% for Hillary and 27.9% for Donald.
It's irrelevant anyway - the election wasn't being held on July 25th, with the RNC convention bounce in full effect and prior to the Democrats nominating their own candidate.
As of this morning, 538 Now-cast numbers are 72.1% for Hillary and 27.9% for Donald.
No it's not. 538's numbers on July 25th added up to a 56.5% chance of Trump obtaining 270 electoral votes and winning the election. Again, what are you trying to argue?
Yes, IF you are looking at the vote today numbers, but remember this is right after the RNC convention and his numbers plummeted the next week.
If you look at the polls plus forecast his percentage was 40.5% (his highest) while Clintons was 59.5% (her lowest) for the same day.
Yes, IF you are looking at the vote today numbers, but remember this is right after the RNC convention and his numbers plummeted the next week.
If you look at the polls plus forecast his percentage was 40.5% (his highest) while Clintons was 59.5% (her lowest) for the same day.
And that's exactly what we were looking at.
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