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Morning Consult has Clinton +6 in the head to head.
And see that is kind of the thing because this is the first year people have been saying "Well what is the 4 way vote?" Before head to head was simply fine enough. We simply have no idea just how much of the vote the 3rd party will get in the general election. I'm guess that as the election gets closer and one side looks more like winning then some of the lost voters from Johnson and Stein will defect back to Trump or Clinton.
Trump polling poorly with 73% of Ohio women. He is in deep trouble. With McMullin on the ballot in Iowa now, he is a long shot there too.
And that's the other thing. McMullin is selling himself pretty hard. If he pulls off some from Trump in close states it could be the difference between a victory and a loss.
And see that is kind of the thing because this is the first year people have been saying "Well what is the 4 way vote?" Before head to head was simply fine enough. We simply have no idea just how much of the vote the 3rd party will get in the general election. I'm guess that as the election gets closer and one side looks more like winning then some of the lost voters from Johnson and Stein will defect back to Trump or Clinton.
People are still in the "I'm not voting for either of those bums" mood. In the end, most of them will. I think they will break along party lines, so the head to head is a good relative predictor. I do think McMullin will throw Iowa to Clinton, though it is probably too early to be saying that. IA Republicans don't strike me as Trumpies. They are true conservatives and McMullin is right up their alley and a morally defensible choice.
Silver is no longer associated with the New York Times. He's not a liberal blogger. He's a statistician. He first made his mark in sports where he revolutionized use of statistics in analyzing baseball. He then began analyzing poll results. His methods determine the average inherent bias in polls and then adjusts the polls to account for that bias. Over the past 2 presidential elections he has called all but 1 state correctly for an accuracy rating of 99%.
Nate misjudged Trump's candidacy, consistently.
""1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate." Silver's website said Trump's not a real candidate because "Trump's high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time," which meant, "'Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin -- or playing in the NBA Finals -- than winning the Republican nomination...'" Silver blew it.
"2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump 'Surge' Seriously." So Trump's taking off, Nate Silver comes out with two reasons why everyone should not believe it; dead wrong again.
"3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World's Greatest Troll Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a 'troll' candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody," but he was not going to go anywhere. He had no chance to win the nomination.
"4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump's Six Stages of Doom." Obviously wrong. "He [Nate Silver] pegged Trump's odds of winning the nomination at 2%...
"5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination. ... 'Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,' Silver said. 'It's not even clear that he's trying to do so.'
"6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump's Polls." They don't mean anything; Trump has no chance. "
7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan -- Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses," saying this is as good as it gets.
He been wrong seven times predicting the fate and fortune of Donald Trump."
You would have to see the cross tabs on it. NC has a detailed voter file so they should weight by it. AA make up 23 % or greater of the vote in general elections. It's not really out of step with other polls though. They swing from +2 Trump to +2 Clinton.
The most recent poll was Clinton +9, that could be an outlier, but there hasn't been many polls in the state since Clinton took a solid national lead in most polling. Based on the link, it doesn't appear to be weighted for demographics. You can't always pinpoint how each demographic will turnout, but you can at least be in the ballpark. 10% African American sample is just so far off from where the state is, its past turnout it just doesn't make any sense. It is just odd to be off so far, especially considering the demographics in the S.C poll does make sense.
Either way I think we do need to see more polling, but if N.C is basically a tie with a 79% white, 10% African American sample, then Trump really is in immense trouble there.
""1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate." Silver's website said Trump's not a real candidate because "Trump's high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time," which meant, "'Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin -- or playing in the NBA Finals -- than winning the Republican nomination...'" Silver blew it.
"2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump 'Surge' Seriously." So Trump's taking off, Nate Silver comes out with two reasons why everyone should not believe it; dead wrong again.
"3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World's Greatest Troll Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a 'troll' candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody," but he was not going to go anywhere. He had no chance to win the nomination.
"4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump's Six Stages of Doom." Obviously wrong. "He [Nate Silver] pegged Trump's odds of winning the nomination at 2%...
"5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination. ... 'Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,' Silver said. 'It's not even clear that he's trying to do so.'
"6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump's Polls." They don't mean anything; Trump has no chance. "
7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan -- Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses," saying this is as good as it gets.
He been wrong seven times predicting the fate and fortune of Donald Trump."
He ignored the data is why. He believed (With some reason) that the polling was not going to bear out for a Trump victory. They either he would decline in the polls or the anti Trump vote would coalesce around someone. Cute how you are pointing out things that happened a year ago as well. Like anyone can predict the election a year out.
""1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate." Silver's website said Trump's not a real candidate because "Trump's high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time," which meant, "'Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin -- or playing in the NBA Finals -- than winning the Republican nomination...'" Silver blew it.
"2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump 'Surge' Seriously." So Trump's taking off, Nate Silver comes out with two reasons why everyone should not believe it; dead wrong again.
"3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World's Greatest Troll Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a 'troll' candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody," but he was not going to go anywhere. He had no chance to win the nomination.
"4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump's Six Stages of Doom." Obviously wrong. "He [Nate Silver] pegged Trump's odds of winning the nomination at 2%...
"5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination. ... 'Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,' Silver said. 'It's not even clear that he's trying to do so.'
"6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump's Polls." They don't mean anything; Trump has no chance. "
7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan -- Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses," saying this is as good as it gets.
He been wrong seven times predicting the fate and fortune of Donald Trump."
There is also a bit of a difference between his personal opinions and his actual statistical models. The link from above is primarily based on comments Silver made about his personal predictions, not the statistical model based predictions.
Do you have any specific issues about the statistical models and methodology on the five thirty eight site??
He ignored the data is why. He believed (With some reason) that the polling was not going to bear out for a Trump victory. They either he would decline in the polls or the anti Trump vote would coalesce around someone. Cute how you are pointing out things that happened a year ago as well. Like anyone can predict the election a year out.
"Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. "
He's sworn off the pundit business and is now sticking to the numbers.
""1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate." Silver's website said Trump's not a real candidate because "Trump's high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time," which meant, "'Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin -- or playing in the NBA Finals -- than winning the Republican nomination...'" Silver blew it.
"2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump 'Surge' Seriously." So Trump's taking off, Nate Silver comes out with two reasons why everyone should not believe it; dead wrong again.
"3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World's Greatest Troll Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a 'troll' candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody," but he was not going to go anywhere. He had no chance to win the nomination.
"4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump's Six Stages of Doom." Obviously wrong. "He [Nate Silver] pegged Trump's odds of winning the nomination at 2%...
"5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination. ... 'Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,' Silver said. 'It's not even clear that he's trying to do so.'
"6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump's Polls." They don't mean anything; Trump has no chance. "
7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan -- Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses," saying this is as good as it gets.
He been wrong seven times predicting the fate and fortune of Donald Trump."
Nate Silver's opinion was consistently that Trump would not be the GOP nominee.
However, that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about Silver's election models, which are based on data. They're not opinions and they're not judgment calls. The models were built long before the contests began. The data is fed into the models and the forecast result is then calculated from that data using the models.
Then, Super Tuesday. There wasn't enough data for 538 to make forecasts in three of the states, but their model did make predictions in eight of the races. You can see them all at the links above - just select the specific contests in the drop-down. It accurately predicted that Trump would win AL, AR, GA, MA, TN and VA. It also accurately had Cruz winning TX. The only blown call? OK - Cruz won it but the 538 model had Trump winning!
So, of the first 15 states in this years GOP nominating cycle, 538 issued forecasts in 12 of them. It called 11 for Trump and 1 for Cruz - and the only 2 mistakes it made were errors where it had Trump incorrectly winning.
I don't have the time or patience to further break down the fact that 538's models consistently pointed to Trump victories in state after state. The fact that Silver couldn't believe his own models is irrelevant... except, I guess, for something to which you cling as you desperately hope 538's models are suddenly all wrong after years of accuracy!
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