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Republicans won the Asian vote in 2014 so I wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins that demographic. I could see Trump winning 10-15% max of AA vote.
Turnout in midterms is tilted in favor of the party out of power. As such more of those parties supporters come out to vote. The Republicans haven't won the Asian American vote since 1996 and I'm pretty sure that Trump isn't going to somehow get a 30 percent flip .I don't know why people keep saying asians as well. That isn't even broken down in this poll.
People also seem to be misunderstanding this poll as well. it's a weighted average for the last week. So if Trump had one or two good days on the poll that's going to affect it for a few days. As it's a representation of the last week and not simply that day. It's good for trends anyway. My guess is that it will go up for Trump for a few more days and then back down. The polls seem to be mimicing where they were in the end of June and in the start of July. The poll for some reason had Trump ahead during that period. My guess is that it will return to that.
Midterms =/= general election. Turnout heavily favored Republicans in 2014, an advantage they won't have this year.
Asian Americans have steadily migrated to the Democrats since 1992, and they favored Obama 71-28% in 2012. No way will Divisive Donald reverse that, it's not remotely believable.
Maybe they prefer Divisive Donald over Crooked 'disaster in progress' Hillary....obviously they must based on this poll.
I understand the different voting patterns of Presidential and mid term election cycles but one has to take into account the candidates and it's a case of holding your nose and picking a stinky candidate.
Republicans won the Asian vote in 2014 so I wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins that demographic. I could see Trump winning 10-15% max of AA vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~
Turnout in midterms is tilted in favor of the party out of power. As such more of those parties supporters come out to vote. The Republicans haven't won the Asian American vote since 1996 and I'm pretty sure that Trump isn't going to somehow get a 30 percent flip .I don't know why people keep saying asians as well. That isn't even broken down in this poll.
You would think that the example of 2012, following on the heels of 2010, would have taught people the lesson of the very different natures of Presidential elections and mid-term elections.
But some people are bound and determined not to learn anything that doesn't sound good to them.
Not exactly. That came from a tally prior to the final results. They wound up being middle of the pack in 08, the final margin was just shy of 7.3, several pollsters had it at 7 or 8 which is obviously closer than 6. Either way they were HORRID in 12.
Your analysis is at odds with what's reported.
"So, I decided to look back at the accuracy of polls in 2008.
There is such an assessment and it can be found here. The grading looks at 2 things; the accuracy of the final poll before the election and the consistency of its results to that outcome throughout October. Only one pollster earns an A grade for 2008: Rasmussen. It was, by far, the most accurate and consistent poll of the ’08 cycle.
A look at other media polls’ performance in 08 is especially illuminating, given the current questions surrounding their polls.
NBC/WSJ C
Marist D
ABC/WaP0 D+
Gallup D
CBS/NYT D-
Reuters F"
If one wants to stay REAL (as opposed to living in fantasy), very broad composites - such as are used by 538 - provides a REAL WORLD view.
For the Trump voters, 538 has another slight downtick for Hillary today - loss of another electoral vote - for a total of five electoral votes in the past several days. The gap should continue to narrow considerably as time goes on.
If Trump weren't generally such a loon, I would have been a supporter, b/c his views on immigration mirror mine and I believe we are facing a real and present danger in that area - especially from the Middle East. But, he's a mental loose cannon, uninformed and intellectually lazy, and wants to remain that way - and, imo, dangerous, so he's lost me.
It's my understanding that Nate Silver is a blogger for the NYT, and that's a biased liberal bunch. Just because this guy got 2012 right doesn't make him the go to man for accuracy.
It's my understanding that Nate Silver is a blogger for the NYT, and that's a biased liberal bunch. Just because this guy got 2012 right doesn't make him the go to man for accuracy.
General Election Clinton 39, Trump 36, Johnson 8, Stein 4
YouGov/CBS News
Iowa Trump 40, Clinton 40, Johnson 7, Stein 2
Ohio Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2
Well the MC poll pretty much proves my point. 39 /36 was the same as it was in the end of June. I can also say that it looks like Stein has bottomed out. Doesn't look like she is getting much attention anymore.
Maybe they prefer Divisive Donald over Crooked 'disaster in progress' Hillary....obviously they must based on this poll.
I understand the different voting patterns of Presidential and mid term election cycles but one has to take into account the candidates and it's a case of holding your nose and picking a stinky candidate.
Since they don't break down Asians in the poll you have no idea if they do or don't. Nice try though.
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